NASCAR By The Numbers: Jeff Kyle 400 at Indianapolis
Before I get into the data for this weeks race, I just wanted to say “thank you” for all the nice feedback last week. I’m going to continue to do the by the numbers article, and I’m working with the RG team for some NASCAR tools. Indy has a special package for this weekend, and honestly a lot of drivers don’t know what to expect on Sunday. I’m excited for the race, and excited for all the NASCAR contests again this weekend.
Jeff Gordon – Starting 19th – Jeff Gordon has the most NASCAR wins here at Indy, and will be running his last Brickyard 400 on Sunday. As we can see from the chart above, Gordon has been one of the strongest drivers here at Indy. The first thing that stands out to me, he has an average finish of 7.9 over his last 10 races. This sets him up for a good opportunity for positive place differential points. Gordon spends a lot of time in the top 15 at this track, and is a solid cash game option this weekend.
Kasey Kahne – Starting 27th – Kasey Kahne gave us a gift on Saturday, and will be starting towards the back of the field on Sunday. Kahne has the fifth highest Driver Rating over the last 10 races here. Only Jimmie Johnson has led more laps over the last 10 years. He started 24th in 2010, and was able to have a 13th place finish. Kahne hasn’t finished worse than 12th since joining Hendrick Motorsports in 2012. With his average finish of 14.4, I like Kahne for a solid performance on Sunday.
Ryan Newman – Starting 43rd – Newman will start last on Sunday because his right side window wasn’t hooked up properly. This was considered a safety violation, and his qualifying time was disallowed. Looking at the chart above, Newman has the worst Pass Differential over the last 10 races here. I think he’s going to be the highest owned driver this weekend, and I will be playing him in cash games this week. He has an average finish of 16.4, and this sets him up as the top value play of the weekend. If you’re playing multiple lineups this weekend, make sure you’re not all in on Newman.
David Ragan – Starting 3rd – Ragan turned out an excellent qualifying time on Saturday, but this hasn’t been his best track. As we can see, he has the fourth highest negative pass differential. I dug into his past data here a little more than just Pass Differential. He has eight races here over the last ten years, and has an average finish of 24.3. Ragan started on the pole in 2011, and finished 23rd with only one lap led. I think Ragan is going to go back fast, and I will be avoiding him a lot this weekend.
Value Plays
Ryan Blaney – Starting 30th – Blaney has been qualifying very solid, and that has crushed his value over recent weeks. This week he will be starting 30th, and has a top 24 in three of his last four races. I still like Austin Dillon for cash games, but I think Blaney is a solid pivot in GPPs this weekend. Blaney has no past NASCAR data at this track, and his only XFINITY race here he finished 27th in 2012. The 21 team had a fast lap in the second qualifying, and I like the chances of a top 20 finish for him this weekend.
David Gilliland – Starting 37th – It is the same story as last week with Gilliland this week. He’s starting 37th and has a good chance to pick up some Place Differential points. He has an average finish of 28.3 here over a seven-race span. He’s struggled with the last two races here, and I would only recommend him for a low owned GPP play.
Last week I picked Denny Hamlin to win the race, but this week I’m going to switch it up some. I’m going to give you the driver I think has the most upside for GPPs this weekend.
Brad Keselowski – Starting 31st – Keselowski was very fast in practice number 2, and was the second fastest in happy hour when running ten consecutive laps. He has a ton of upside starting 31st this weekend, and has an average finish of 14th in five races at Indy. Keselowski got a little high between one and two, and ended up having a very poor qualifying lap. This team is locked in right now, and has top 10 finishes in three of the last five races.
Thanks for reading again this week, and good luck on Sunday. Be sure to check out the Daily Fantasy Pitstop video for more of my picks before setting your lineups!