NASCAR By The Numbers: Kobalt 400
With two weeks in the books, it’s time to head out west to Las Vegas Motor Speedway. The aero package proved to test the drivers at Atlanta, and the tire wear made for a lot of green flag runs. This weekend we will have the same aero package, but the tires should hold up a lot better. With 267 laps this weekend, we want a good mix of laps led and place differential.
Joey Logano – $10,000 – Starting 2nd – I tweeted out earlier this week that Logano dominated the start of the race from the outside pole last year. I’m really sticking to this, and I think he gets an early lead on Kurt Busch on Sunday. Busch has really struggled at this racetrack, and has only led 54 laps in 14 career races here. Since joining Team Penske in 2013, Logano has greatly improved at Las Vegas, and he’s one of my favorite upside plays this weekend.
Brad Keselowski – $9,700 – Starting 4th – The biggest issue for Logano this weekend is that Keselowski has a very fast racecar as well. If Kurt decides to start on the inside, the two teammates could pull away early in this one. You have to go way down to find Keselowski on the driver-rating chart above. We can overlook that, as he has the highest driver rating over the last three years and has the highest average finishing position in that span. I like the Penske guys a lot this weekend, and I feel like they both has a ton of upside.
Matt Kenseth – $9,900 – Starting 3rd – Kenseth is one of my favorite GPP plays this weekend, but I do think he’s a little risky as well. He has a fast Penske team around him, and it may be challenging for him to lead any laps. He’s been good at Las Vegas throughout his career, and he’s posted three straight Top-10s here since joining JGR. He has the second-highest percentage of laps led, and I think he has a ton of upside if he’s able to get out front this weekend.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. – $9,000 – Starting 20th – Looking at past results here, Jr has been fantastic at Las Vegas since joining Hendrick. Since joining Hendrick Motorsports in 2008, Jr has an average finish of 7.3 over those eight races here. He has the second-highest driver rating over the last three years, and the sixth-highest average running position. He’s a great cash game play this weekend, and a guy I will be using a lot.
Jamie McMurray – $7,300 – Starting 29th – McMurray was a guy I wasn’t on last weekend at Atlanta because he qualified too high, and it paid off for me. I’m thinking the exact opposite this weekend. He’s starting 29th, and has finished in the top 15 in four straight races here. McMurray also finished in the top 15 at both Darlington and Kentucky with this new Aero package. I like his chances for 10+ place differential points this weekend, and at this price, he’s a guy that I’m going to be looking at a lot.
Value Play
I still love the value guys I talked about in my Daily Fantasy Pitstop Video. I like one more guy as a GPP option this weekend.
Brian Scott – $5,400 – Starting 32nd – It’s not a weekend that you have to go crazy with value picks, but if something happens to a guy like Vickers, Scott could be on the winning GPP team. He’s starting way back, and should have a very good chance at a top 25 finish here. Scott started 23rd and pulled off a 13th place finish last year. He has Top-10 finishes in two of his last three XFINITY races, and last year he had engine issues early in that race. He struggled at Atlanta last weekend, but didn’t finish worst than 22nd in four intermediate races in 2015.