NASCAR By the Numbers: New Hampshire 301
This weekend, we head to New Hampshire for the New Hampshire 301. It’s a Sunday-afternoon race, so make sure you tune in at 1:30 PM ET on NBCSN.
The key this weekend is staying on the lead lap, and as always, staying out of trouble. It’s going to be important to nail not only the guys starting in the back who will move up, but also the dominator drivers. I’m still sold on the cash game plays from the Daily Fantasy Pitstop video. It’s going to be an interesting week for dominator points. Johnson is starting on the pole, but he’s really struggled at New Hampshire. With that said, clean air has been so important this season, and this could turn into a strategy-type race.
Also, we have some exciting news coming to RotoGrinders for our NASCAR product, so make sure to keep an eye out for that.
Kyle Busch – $10,500 – Starting 2nd – Kyle Busch is my guy this weekend, and I’m going to be playing him in all formats. He’s an aggressive driver, and I like his chances to get out in front of Johnson early in this race. Take away the issue he had in September last year and he has finished second or better in four of five races with a win. Busch has the second0most fantasy points in three straight spring races here at New Hampshire. JGR is showing a lot of speed this weekend, and I think the Toyotas will be out front for most the day.
Jimmie Johnson – $9,700 – Starting 1st – If Johnson was priced as a top-three driver, nobody would even look at him this weekend. With his price, I think he makes for a very interesting GPP play, and I wouldn’t rule him out in cash games if you want less risk. Clean air has been so important this season, and with the new aero package in clean air, it’s been very hard to pass the leader. While I expect Kyle to get out front, it wouldn’t shock me if Jimmie holds him off. Johnson should start on the top unless we see something in the XFINITY race on Saturday afternoon, but the top is the preferred restart spot at New Hampshire. Johnson has never won a pole here, and he only has 25 laps led over the last ten races here. I think he’s risky, but just the type of risky that could really pay off in this spot.
Kevin Harvick – $10,700 – Starting 8th – Sticking to the GPP mindset here, Harvick is one of my favorite GPP plays this weekend. Harvick has been a fantasy stud this season and tends to always impress on the racetrack. Outside of Tony Stewart, no active driver has led more laps at New Hampshire over the last ten years. He’s finished third in two of the last three races here, and he would have won the September race if he hadn’t run out of fuel. He was the fastest in five-lap, 10-lap, and 15-lap runs in final practice on Saturday. This practice was very close to race condition, and I like his chances to move up through the field this weekend. If he finds his way up front, expect him to stay there.
Kyle Larson – $8,500 – Starting 17th – I bet you guys get sick of seeing Larson in my articles, but I’m a big fan of the way he drives. I feel like he’s going to be the next first-time winner in NASCAR, and I just expect him to put a full race together soon. In Larson’s rookie season, he finished third and second in the two races at New Hampshire. His whole year in 2015 was full of mistakes, but he is locked in this season. He has an average finish of 10.67 over the last six races this season, and I like his chances to keep it going this weekend.
Value Play
Clint Bowyer – $7,000 – Starting 32nd – Bowyer is having a frustrating season, and he can’t wait to get in Stewart’s car next year. His average finish is 22.67 over the last six races this season, and he provides solid place differential this weekend. If you take away the electrical issue at Sonoma, he has finished 23rd or better in eight straight races. Because of his equipment, I still don’t think he’s safe, but I think he’s a much better option than Bayne. Dover is a one-mile track like New Hampshire; while they’re different for sure, Bowyer picked up a 12th place finish at Dover in May. I really like his chances for a good weekend, and I’m going to use him in cash games.