NASCAR By The Numbers: New Hampshire
I’ve been traveling a lot lately, and I haven’t had a chance to write this article in the last three weeks. I am back this week, and will be here till the end of the season. This week is the second race of the Chase, and the second race at New Hampshire this season. Qualifying didn’t shock me a lot, but I would pay attention to final practice numbers a lot this week.
Kevin Harvick – Starting 2nd – Carl Edwards qualified on the pole for the second straight time at New Hampshire. He was only able to lead 19 laps in July, and I have a feeling Harvick will be on a mission after last weekend. He has two weeks to pick up a win, and I think he has the most upside of any driver this weekend. He has finished third in back-to-back races here. Looking at the chart above, you can see Harvick is solid in almost every stat here.
Jeff Gordon – Starting 10th – It’s Gordon’s final season, and this team wants nothing more than being in the final four at Homestead. He has the highest driver rating among active drivers, and the highest quality pass percentage. The thing that stands out to me, he runs 88% of his laps in the top 15 at New Hampshire. I think Gordon has a strong chance for a top 10 finish this weekend, and he’s a guy I really like for cash games. Narrative Street, Gordon will be crowned the Iron Man on Sunday, and he will be making his 789th consecutive start.
Denny Hamlin – Starting 7th – Hamlin is one of my favorite GPP plays this weekend. He’s locked into the Chase, and has nothing to lose this weekend. Looking at the chart above, you can see Hamlin has the highest driver rating over the last three Chase races here. Another thing that stands out to me, he’s on all of these charts, which means he’s in the top five in the entire loop stats we look at. He’s struggled here in the last few races, and for the reason, I would only look to Hamlin in cash games this weekend.
Brad Keselowski – Starting 4th – I don’t know how sneaky it is, but I love Keselowski as a sneaky play on Sunday. He has the highest driver rating over the last five races here, and an average finish of fifth in that span. In the last eight races, he has seven top ten finishes, and his one race out of the top ten was a 11th place finish in 2013. He has led 75+ laps in three straight races here at New Hampshire. His high driver rating came three races ago when he led 138 laps and picked up the win. He’s very capable of doing this again.
Value Plays
A.J. Allmendinger – Starting 30th – Allmendinger had a poor showing in qualifying on Friday, and I’m a big fan of him this weekend. He has an average finish of 16.5 over the last five races at New Hampshire. He’s had plus place differential in four straight races, and hasn’t finished worse than 22 in his last eight races. I think Allmendinger is a great option for cash games.
Greg Biffle – Starting 25th – I was really high on Biffle earlier this season here, and he had a very disappointing race. He has a career average finish of 13th, and an average finish of 15 over the last five races. There’s really good potential for positive place differential starting 25th. Roush Fenway Racing has really struggled this season, and they really need a strong finish to the season.
Thanks for reading as always, for more plays I’m on this week, check out my weekly video here.