NASCAR By the Numbers: Pennsylvania 400
This weekend we head back to Pocono for the Pennsylvania 400. The race is Sunday at 1PM EST on NBCSN. We were just at Pocono in the beginning of June, and a lot of that data can be used this weekend. We have a special GrindersLive NASCAR show Saturday at 4:30PM EST, and it will be on demand after that.
Pocono is the tricky triangle, and it’s really hard to compare it to any other track. It’s 160 laps and no one led more than 51 laps in June. This weekend for cash games, we will target 1-2 dominators and look for 4-5 place differential and finishing position drivers.
I still like all four picks from The Daily Fantasy Pitstop, but you can find even more analysis below in the replay of this weekend’s GrindersLive show:
Martin Truex Jr. – $10,200 – Starting 1st – As you can see from above, Truex isn’t in the top 16 in driver rating here at Pocono. His history here can be thrown out the window, and we’ve seen a completely different driver/team over the last year and a half. Truex won this race last June and led 97 of the 160 laps on the way to that victory. He’s in a great spot to lead a lot of laps this weekend, and we’ve seen all year how important clean air is. If you need anymore reasons, Truex was the fastest car in final practice on Saturday.
Kevin Harvick – $10,400 – Starting 17th – Harvick’s qualifying struggles continued on Friday, and Harvick becomes a very solid cash game option now. Harvick averages 11 more DK points than any other driver this year, and he always finds his way into the top ten. He has eight top-ten finishes in the last ten races, and an average finish of 8.55 this season. He finished 42nd in this race last August, but he had engine issues early. He’s finished ninth or better in three of the last four, and two of those races he finished second. Not a lot of drivers ran 10-lap times in final practice, but Harvick was third-fastest out of 17 drivers who did.
Jimmie Johnson – $10,000 – Starting 21st – I mentioned three guys in the 8k range in my video this week, so I’m going with another high priced driver here. Johnson may be one of the coldest drivers in NASCAR right now, and comes in with an average finish of 18.5 over the last six races. We keep saying, this is the week he’s going to get it turned around, and I’m going to say it once again this week. He’s finished 14th or better in eight of the last ten races here, and that presents a very solid place differential floor for him. With Truex and Harvick in this same price range, I think Johnson is low owned this weekend.
Joey Logano – $9,500 – Starting 10th – Logano is one of my favorite GPP plays this weekend, and I’m guessing he will be under 10% owned. Logano has finished in the top five in three of the last four races here at Pocono. He is in great form right now and has the third-highest average finish over the last six races this season. Logano has one of the highest average running positions here, and I like his chances to pick up a top five finish. Most weeks that wouldn’t be enough to win you anything, but I think we need five guys with place differential and finishing position this weekend.
Value Play
Trevor Bayne – $6,400 – Starting 31st – Bayne has quietly been a solid fantasy option lately and comes in with an average finish of 17.83 over the last six races. In three career races at Pocono, Bayne has finished 13th, 40th, and 24th. In August of 2015, Bayne finished 40th because the car was overheating. He’s scored solid place differential in the other two races, and finished 13th here earlier this year. I’m usually the first person to pick on Bayne, but he’s a very solid value option this weekend.