NASCAR By the Numbers: Pure Michigan 400
This weekend, we head to Michigan for the Pure Michigan 400. The race takes place Sunday at 2 PM EST on NBCSN. I recorded the Daily Fantasy Pitstop, but I still like everything I said. I think Johnson is more interesting for GPPs now, but I’m still not playing him in cash games.
This weekend will have the even lower down force package again, and it’s the same package that was run here in June. Logano led over half the race from the pole in June, and there’s a good chance he can do it again this weekend. In cash games, I’m going to focus on one to two dominators, but in GPPs, I’m looking for the two guys that dominate the dominator points. Dale Earnhardt Jr. is in the player pool and he’s OUT this weekend. Don’t play him!
Brad Keselowski – $10,200 – Starting 18th – It’s always nice when someone really good starts further back than they should. That’s the case here, and Keselowski is my favorite place differential driver on this slate. He comes in with five straight top-10 finishes at this track, and he hasn’t finished worst than 13th in ten straight. He has the fourth-highest driver rating here over the last five, and Elliott is in front of him with only one race here. Keselowski is one of the best closers here, and I’m paying up for his high floor this weekend.
Kurt Busch – $9,100 – Starting 19th – I feel like we just did this in June. Kurt started 17th and finished 10th in that race. A top-10 finish would result in at least 43 fantasy points for him, and he seems like a very solid cash game option this weekend. Kurt has been up and down at Michigan throughout his career, but he’s finished 13th or better in three of five races here with SHR. Kurt has a 93.5 driver rating over the last five races at Michigan, which is fifth-best among active drivers. After a strong start, Kurt is looking to improve on his 16.83 average finish in his last six races this season.
Kevin Harvick – $10,700 – Starting 4th – Shifting gears to talk some GPP plays, I really think Harvick is under-owned here. He’s starting fourth, and he’s the highest priced driver on the slate. Harvick has finished second in five of the last seven Michigan races, and he’s led 60+ laps in two of those races. He finished 29th in the June 2015 race, but it was a rain-shortened race. Harvick has the ability to win this race, and could be a good dominator play in the second half. He’s always fast over long runs, and he’s one of the most consistent drivers in NASCAR.
Chase Elliott – $8,700 – Starting 5th – I hardly ever play Elliott because he usually qualifies well, but he actually had a chance to win the race here earlier this season. I think Elliott or Harvick will be on the winning GPP team this weekend. He can start and finish 5th and score 39 fantasy points, which is actually not bad for his price tag. He’s still very risky because he gets minus two points for every spot he finishes back. Elliott and Larson had the fastest cars over a 10-lap run in final practice, and both guys could use a win to lock into the Chase.
Value Plays
Rickey Stenhouse Jr. – $6,700 – Starting 29th – Man, I liked Bayne in my video, and now I like Stenhouse after qualifying. I never thought we’d see the day where we play both of them in a lineup together, but it makes a ton of sense this weekend. Stenhouse has struggled at Michigan, and he’s never finished better than 15th. On the flip side of that, he’s never finished worse than 29th here. He has an average finish of 20th over the last six races, which is better than almost every driver in this price range (Bayne being the only one higher). Stenhouse needs a lot to happen to make the Chase at this point, but it’s still very possible.
Paul Menard – $7,100 – Starting 20th – I have a really bad track record of getting Menard right, but I’m going back to the well this weekend. Menard has an average finish of 9.2 over his last five races here, and a top-10 would result in at least 44 fantasy points for him. He comes in with positive place differential in six straight Michigan races, and finished 4th from 20th in the August 2013 race. It’s a way different car and package, but this seems to be one of the better tracks for Menard.
If you have any questions, feel free to leave them below, or ask me on twitter Stevietpfl or RotoGrindersNAS