NASCAR By the Numbers: Quaker State 400
This weekend, we head to Kentucky for the Quaker State 400. It’s a Saturday night race on NBC Sports Network at 7:30 PM EST. I still really like all the picks from the Daily Fantasy Pitstop.
This will be the first race with the repave, and in addition to the repave, Turns 1 and 2 had their banking increased from 14 to 17 degrees. The racing groove narrowed in the process. Turns 3 and 4 remain 14 degrees. With all the changes, I think it’s going to be very tough to pass. We could see pit strategy play a big part this weekend. I like the chances for the leader to lead a lot of laps, and with this package at Michigan, Logano led well over 50% of that race. I’m not going to completely discount past race history, but I’ll be weighing practice and Michigan a little more.
Kevin Harvick – $10,600 – Starting 1st – With qualifying rained out, the field will be set on owner’s points. Harvick is at the top and should lead a good portion of this race. Track position is going to be so important, and in both races (XFINITY/Truck) this weekend, it’s been very hard to pass the leader. Harvick went from 29th to 5th at Michigan. He’s so good at 1.5-mile tracks and has finished in the top ten in all five 1.5-mile races this season. I like Keselowski a lot as well and will likely pair both of them together in cash games.
Kyle Busch – $10,200 – Starting 6th – I don’t like Kyle for cash games this weekend, but he is one of my favorite GPP plays. He’s been amazing at Kentucky, and he’s been the best 1.5-mile racer over the last few seasons. Outside of wrecking at Charlotte, Kyle has finished 1st, 1st, 4th, and 3rd at 1.5-mile tracks this season. It’s hard to look at his Michigan run because he blew the engine on lap 52. He dominated the XFINITY race on Saturday night, and the extra time on the track should help him on Saturday night.
Matt Kenseth – $8,700 – Starting 11th – Kenseth is really underpriced this weekend, and he should be very popular in cash games. He comes in with the fourth-highest driver rating, and the third-highest average running position. In five career races here, he’s run 92.1% of his laps in the top 15. One of my favorite stats is quality pass percentage, and Kenseth has an 80.6% quality pass percentage, which is 21.6% higher than the next best. JGR showed a lot of speed in practice, and I expect them to do well Saturday night.
Greg Biffle – $6,600 – Starting 23rd – I really like Ty Dillon and Kyle Larson like I mentioned in my video, but I think Biffle is another guy we can look at this weekend. He’s having a rough season, and this leads to his 23rd starting position. Final practice was the closest practice to race conditions, and Biffle showed some solid speed in happy hour. He has the 10th-fastest 10-lap run in that practice, and comes in with three straight top 20 finishes. I have him projected to finish 15-17, and I like that solid place differential for a guy at his price tag.
Value Play
Chris Buescher – $5,200 – Starting 35th – It’s very rare that I’ll target a guy down here, but I actually think it makes sense this weekend. With dominator points being so important, I really think you need three to four studs in your lineup. Buescher ran really well at Michigan and came home 20th with a decent 62.1 driver rating. He has an average finish of 28.83 on 1.5-mile tracks this season, and an average finish of 28.33 over his last six races. He’s a little risky, but I think he’s the best play as a punt option here.