NASCAR By The Numbers: STP 500
We’ve decided to add a new section to the By The Numbers NASCAR article. We’ve been getting a lot of feedback about practice, and I’m happy to announce we will be updating the article on Saturday night after final practice. I’ll be sharing my personal notes, and letting you know if I’ve changed my thoughts on a driver.
This week we have a 500-lap race at Martinsville (Tune In Sunday at 1:00 PM EST on FS1). We are going to target dominator points, but you still want three to four guys that you think will move up through the race. Qualifying saved the soft pricing on DraftKings again this weekend, but I’m hoping we see them tighten up the cap soon.
Joey Logano – $10,200 – Starting 1st – I tweeted out after qualifying that you should start your lineups with Logano this weekend. He’s starting on the pole for the third straight race here, and has led over 30% of the laps in the last two races. Logano was well on his way for a win last fall, and Kenseth wrecked him with less than fifty laps to go. He has finished in the top five in three of the last four races, and I feel like he’s going to lead at least 100 laps on Sunday. Logano also has the highest driver rating over the last four races here.
Jimmie Johnson – $10,400 – Starting 24th – Johnson is an elite play on Sunday, and should be in your cash lineups. He’s starting 24th on Sunday, and he’s finished 12th or better in 26 of 28 career races here. He leads just about every stat here, and has the highest driver rating plus the best average running position. Johnson has qualified 20th or worse in five races here, he averages an 18.2 positive place differential in those five races, and he won from 20th in 2007. Johnson has the most wins of any active driver at this track, and I expect him to move up fast on Sunday.
Kevin Harvick – $9,900 – Starting 19th – It’s very rare that we see a guy like Harvick under 10k, but he’s a great option this weekend. He comes in with the fifth best driver rating among active drivers, and he has the third highest over the last four races here. Harvick comes in with four top ten finishes in the last five races here, and he led 154 laps in the March race last season. I’m hoping Harvick will be under owned in GPPs this weekend.
Austin Dillon – $6,700 – Starting 29th – Dillon is going to be one of the highest owned drivers for cash games this weekend, but it’s going to be hard not to play him. He’s been one of the best drivers this season. He started 30th in the November race here, and ended up with an 18th place finish. A top 20 finish for Dillon will result in at least 30 fantasy points, and he looks to have a very solid floor this weekend.
Value Plays
Aric Almirola – $6,700 – Starting 20th – I really like Almirola this weekend, and I’m not expecting a lot of people to be targeting him this weekend. In nine career races here with Richard Petty Motorsports, Almirola hasn’t finished worse than 21st. He has three top ten finishes in those nine races, and has positive place differential in seven of them. A top 17 would result in 30 fantasy points, and I really think he has 40 point upside this weekend. Love the return at his price tag, and I really think people overlook him this weekend.
Trevor Bayne – $6,100 – Starting 32nd – I don’t expect Bayne to be highly owned this weekend, and I think he’s a great GPP option this weekend. Bayne isn’t typically a guy I target, but that’s usually because he qualifies to high. He’s starting pretty far back, and has a really good chance to score at least 30 fantasy points. He’s finished 23rd or better in each of the last four races this season, and a top 23 finish this weekend will score him at least 30 fantasy points. He’s my sleeper this weekend.
Practice Notes
- After struggling in second practice, Austin Dillon finally showed some speed in final practice. He was 21st fastest over a 10-lap run, and I feel a lot better about playing him in cash games.
-Jimmie Johnson had the best 10-lap run in final practice, and I stand by him being a very strong play on Sunday. He was fifth in second practice as well, and it came towards the end of the run.
-Kyle Larson was the biggest shock on Saturday, and he could be a really sneaky play on Sunday. He was third fastest in second practice, and second fastest in final practice over 10-lap runs.
-Brian Vickers has shown a lot of speed this weekend, and could be a very low owned GPP option. I still don’t trust him, and I won’t have him on any or many teams.
- If you were worried about Joey Logano, it probably didn’t help that he didn’t show any speed on Saturday. He was 14th and 16th in 10-lap runs on Sunday, and has a lot of work to do. He’s still my top play this weekend.
- One thing I wanted to do with this new section, I wanted to revisit my three drivers from my video. I still think Hamlin and Jr are great plays. AJ qualified too high to be a cash play, but he should be very low owned. He was sixth fastest over a 10-lap run in final practice.
- Not a lot of news or notes this weekend.