NASCAR By the Numbers: Texas AAA 500
I, for one, missed writing this article when I was on vacation, but what a race at Martinsville. I’m not the biggest Gordon fan, but I’m super pumped he’s going to be in the final four at Homestead. The wreck between Matt Kenseth and Joey Logano was insane, and NASCAR has suspended Kenseth for the next two races, make sure you don’t play him. Texas is going to be intense this weekend, and I can’t wait to watch the race on Sunday.
Brad Keselowski – Starting 1st – I highly recommend playing the Penske cars this weekend, and I will have a fair share of the Keselowski/Logano combo. With a 32nd finish last weekend, Keselowski is going to come out hungry, and he has tremendous upside. He has five top-ten finishes in his last six races at Texas, and he hasn’t finished worse than 15th in those six races. Looking at the chart above, you will see that Keselowski is 16th among active drivers in driver rating at Texas. When Penske was a Dodge team, Keselowski only had one top ten in seven races. Look past those stats and take him starting on the pole.
Kyle Busch – Starting 3rd – Busch is one of my favorite tournament options this weekend, and I think a lot of people will overlook him for the Penske guys. He has the third highest driver rating, and has led the third-most laps among active drivers. Texas has been very good to Busch, and he has finished in the top five in four of the last five races. Martinsville has always been a tough track for Busch, and this team is going to have a lot of momentum coming off a top-five finish last weekend.
Jimmie Johnson – Starting 8th – Let’s be honest for a second, every driver in the Chase is happy that Johnson is out heading into Texas. Johnson has won the last three races here in November, and has won four of the last six races total here. On top of dominating the standings here, he has led at least 125 laps in five of the last seven races. He is a solid closer here, and leading active drivers with the highest quality pass percentage. I think Johnson is an excellent cash game play this weekend, but I also think he has the upside for GPPs.
Martin Truex Jr. – Starting 23rd – Truex did us a favor on Friday, and is an excellent play starting this far back on Sunday. He has finished no worse than 19th in eight straight races here, and has four top tens in that stretch. Like Kyle Busch, this team is going to be riding the momentum of a sixth-place finish at Martinsville, and he’s going to be looking for another top ten this weekend. He’s another guy that I like in all formats this weekend. Truex has an average running position of 13.7 here, and I expect him to move up fast on Sunday.
Value Plays
Justin Allgaier – Starting 43rd – What an awful qualifying performance for Allgaier, but what a wonderful thing for daily fantasy NASCAR. Allgaier will be in 100% of my lineups on Sunday, and I think he’s almost a must-play starting last. Outside of his accident in April, he finished 24th and 20th in his previous races here. With his teammates hauler fire and working out of the same hauler all weekend, I bet he had a lot on his mind for his qualifying run. I expect that to change Sunday, and I’m hoping for big things out of him.
AJ Allmendinger – Starting 30th – Another guy I like starting towards the back is Allmendinger, and I think a lot of people will look at Dillon starting this far back. Allmendinger has been the second best closer at Texas behind Jimmie Johnson. He’s finished 23rd or better in nine of his last ten races here at Texas, and his only race he finished worse than 23rd was a wreck n 2012. He’s a very solid place differential play this weekend, and he’s a guy I’ll be using a lot this weekend.
Thanks for reading as always, and make sure to check out my video focusing on my cash game targets.