NASCAR By the Numbers: TMNT 400
This weekend we head to Chicago for the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 400. Yes, that’s really the name of the race. It’s the first race of The Chase, and now more than ever, everything is on the line for these guys. The race is Sunday at 2:30 EST on NBCSN.
When I record the Daily Fantasy Pitstop before qualifying, I will usually talk about some changes. This week, I somehow crushed the video before qualifying, and I think all three guys are in play for cash games. This weekend we want to target two dominators, and four-place differential/finishing position. With clean air being so important, there’s a good chance Kyle Busch leads a lot of the first part of this race. Final practice is very important this weekend, and it was held right around the same time, as the race will be on Sunday.
Kevin Harvick – $10,800 – Starting 4th – I talk about Harvick and Larson every week, but I like him for GPPs this weekend. I’m going with Kyle Busch in cash, but I do worry about Harvick. Harvick is showing a lot of speed in practice, and was third fastest over a 10-lap run in final practice. He had issues here last season, but finished 5th and 3rd the two years before that. He’s crushing intermediate tracks, and comes with an average finish of 8.61 over the last 32 INT races. He’s in great form right now, and has an 8.17 average finish over the last six races. If Harvick’s pit crew doesn’t mess up, he should be in the top three at the end of the race.
Kyle Larson – $9,600 – Starting 10th – Larson is showing a ton of speed this weekend, and I like the fact he’s starting 10th. I hope this turns people off of him, but he has a great shot at a top five and a very fast car “The No. 18 team sees the speeds of the 42 and 24, asks @T_Hosh where they’re running because they’re hauling ass”. As much as I want to target guys in the 25s-35s, I could see two to three guys starting in the top ten that are on the winning lineups this weekend. Kyle Larson has the upside of leading laps, and the car to finish in the top five. Larson has finished 7th and 3rd in two career races here at Chicago.
Martin Truex Jr. – $10,300 – Starting 6th – I was asked earlier this week who I liked to win this weekend, and Truex was the guy I picked. This article feels more like a GPP article, but again, I love the three guys in my video for cash games. In seven intermediate races this season, Truex has 2 wins, an average finish of 7.14, and he’s averaged 116 laps led. He’s led over 100 laps in three of those seven races. Starting 6th makes him a risky GPP option, but he’s a guy that can lead laps from this sixth starting spot. He had the fourth fastest 10-lap time in final practice on Saturday afternoon.
Ryan Blaney – $7,100 – Starting 22nd – This is a pure practice speed play. Blaney had the fifth fastest 10-lap in final practice on Saturday. Blaney’s season has been up and down, but he’s still not out of the hunt for NASCAR’s Rookie of the Year. He’s behind Elliott and has some work to do, but he’s been really solid on intermediate tracks this season. Kentucky and Texas hurt the average, but he had issues at both of those races. I really like Blaney this weekend, and a top 15 finish gives him a really solid place differential potential.
Value Play
Brian Scott – $5,300 – Starting 34th- I’m going with Almirola in cash games, but I actually like Scott this weekend too. His average finish over the last six is 28.17, and he has an average finish of 25.31 in his career at intermediate tracks. He ran Chicago in the #33 car last year and finished 22nd. His average running position was 20, and he’s setting up like a solid value place differential option. I’m not thinking he’s going to put up a top ten, but I think he has a solid chance for a top 27 this weekend.