NASCAR By The Numbers: Toyota Save Mart 350
This weekend we head to Sonoma for some right turns mixed in with some left turns. The race is Sunday at 3 PM EST on FS1.
Six times a year, we really focus on place differential over dominator points, and this is one of those weekends. Over the last ten races here, laps led comes from all over the place, and fastest laps are spread out. The pole sitter hasn’t led more than 30% of the laps in the last ten races here. In five out of those ten races, the most laps led came from outside of the top ten. Over the last eleven races here, not one driver has more than 80 fastest laps. I’m going to be focusing on place differential a lot this weekend.
Jimmie Johnson – Starting 15th – $10,100 – Having one of the best crew chiefs, Johnson gets a really nice edge on a lot of the drivers. There’s a lot of strategy that goes into a road course racing. Johnson has seven straight top tens here, and he won here in 2010. Johnson has struggled over the last six races this season, but this is a great place for him to get back on track. He would score at least 39 fantasy points with a top ten finish, and that’s the type of floor I’m looking for in cash games this weekend.
Kevin Harvick – Starting 25th – $10,400 – Harvick is one of my favorite cash game plays this weekend. He struggled in qualifying and presents a really solid floor with his 25th starting position. In 15 career races here, Harvick has only finished worse than 25th three times. He has an average finish of 15th in his career here, and four top tens in the last six races. While pass differential isn’t used to score anymore, it’s still a great stat to look at on road courses. Harvick has a positive pass differential, and should have no problem picking up a top 15 finish this weekend.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Starting 13th – $9,700 – Earnhardt showed a lot of speed in practices on Friday. This is what he tweeted out after qualifying: “Car handled well in qualifying. Didn’t drive the cleanest lap but we backed up our speed from yesterday.” He really likes his car this weekend, and he’s run really well here over the last three races. Earnhardt Jr. has an average finish of 8th over his last four road courses, which is the third-highest among active drivers. Like Johnson, he’s struggled recently, and he’s looking to bounce back this weekend.
Kasey Kahne – Starting 19th – $8,700 – I think you see a trend here: I’m really high on Hendrick Motorsports this weekend. Kahne has been really good at Sonoma, and has finished 14th or better in all four races here with Hendrick. Kahne has an average place differential of 17 over the last three races here. Kahne has the fourth-highest quality pass percentage among active drivers. I really like his chances for a top ten finish this weekend, and that would result in at least 40 fantasy points.
Value Plays
Greg Biffle – Starting 32nd – $6,700 – This is the first time this season I have liked Biffle, and I actually think he’s cash game playable. Biffle has 13 career races here, and he has an average finish of 14.85 here, only finishing worse than 32nd one time. He has six top ten finishes in his last ten races here. I expect Biffle to be highly owned in cash games this weekend, but I really do think he’s the best play under 7k this weekend.
Aric Almirola – Starting 29th – $6,500 – I’m going to give you guys a bonus value play since I didn’t do the Daily Fantasy Pitstop this weekend. Sorry, my lady surprised me with a weekend trip. This hasn’t been the best track for Almirola, but I think he provides some solid value here. He has positive place differential in all five career races here. A top 20 would result in at least 30 fantasy points, and he’s done that in two of the last three races.