NASCAR By the Numbers: Windows 10 400 at Pocono
There has been a lot of talk about the changes that DraftKings made this week, and I’m glad they took away the Pass Differential stat. I’m going to focus on 2-3 drivers for fastest laps and laps led. With the remaining drivers I’m going to focus on Place Differential. I’m going to play with a few different strategies this week, and I might even do a lineup recap article on Monday.
This week we have the Windows 10 400 at Pocono. The race is on Sunday at 1:30 Eastern on NBCSN. I’ve been getting a ton of great feedback with the By The Numbers article, and I plan on keeping this format. I’m excited to see how this new six-driver format plays out.
Kyle Larson – Starting 27th – Larson is still one of the newest drivers in NASCAR, and a lot of his sample sizes are very small. He has slipped a lot this season but has performed very well at these 2.5-mile tracks. Between Pocono and Indy, he has five races, and an average finish of 8th. Looking at the chart above, Larson has an average mid race of 19.5. This shows that starting in the back shouldn’t affect the way he finishes, and I could see him getting a top 15 finish this weekend. He’s a Place Differential guy I’m really looking at for this race.
Kasey Kahne – Starting 16th – I was really hoping Kahne would start further back this week, but I still think he has a top ten car. Kahne has the tenth highest Driver Rating since 2005 but has one of the highest average finish numbers on the chart. I dug into this a little more, and he has three top-ten finishes in his last six races. In two of the races he had issues, and finished 42nd and 36th. He started 18th at Pocono 2 in 2013 and went on to win the race. Kahne is 15th in points and is really in danger of not making the chase without a win. Looking at the chart above, Kahne has the fifth-most Laps Led, and the third-most Fastest Laps.
Austin Dillon – Starting 4th – This guy continues to impress me, but I think he’s a really risky play this weekend. I use this chart above to really look at a few things. First thing I like to look at is the average finish. Dillon has three races here at Pocono, and all three of those races have resulted in negative place differential. The second thing I like to look at is pass differential, I know it’s not a fantasy stat, but we still need to look at it when selecting drivers. Dillon has only three races at this track and a massive -85 Pass Differential. He has a very low % Quality Passes, and I could see him falling back fast in this race.
Paul Menard – Starting 18th – I think a lot of people will look at this price range for value, and I think Menard is just as risky as Dillon. He has an average finish of 30.4 over his last five races at Pocono, and a below average driver rating here all time. Like Dillon, Menard has a massive negative pass differential, and the worse pass differential out of any driver. He last finish in the top 25 at Pocono came in 2012. A lot of issues at this track lately, and I think he’s very risky this weekend.
Value Picks
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – Starting 34th – Stenhouse Jr. is probably the luckiest guy in NASCAR. Unfortunately, a lot of that luck comes with dating Danica Patrick. This whole team is struggling this season and has a lot of work to do with the rest of the season. Stenhouse in a good spot this weekend, he has an average finish of 27th in five races at Pocono. He’s had issues in two of those five races and has top 20 finishes in two of the last three races. If he can stay out of trouble this weekend, he could be one of the best value plays on the board.
David Gilland – Starting 37th – Gilland continues to struggle in qualifying, and it’s honestly doing us a favor. He started in 35th earlier this season and ended up with a 27th place finish. At Pocono 2 in 2014, he started 30th and finished 17th. Getting down to these 6k options, there’s not a lot of upside, but you almost have to have one if you want a top option. Gilland like the rest of these guys is a risky play, but he’s my favorite play from this group on DraftKings.
I thought adding this would help with some GPP options until the Chase. Breaking down this chart, you’ll see Kyle Busch is still not in the top 30, but he’s only 23 points away. If he gets in the top 30, he has the wins to be locked into the chase, and will bump another driver without a win out. None of the guys without a win are safe at that point, and will really be pushing to pick up a win.
Jamie McMurray has a lot of success at this track, and you see he’s in a good spot to get in with points at this point. I don’t see him risking it as much as a guy like Clint Bowyer. Bowyer and Kahne really need to pick up a win at this point, and will risk it a lot more. The guys that are 14 and higher at this point, are going to be really hungry for a win.
Last week I did my favorite upside play of the week, and you guys really loved it. So I’m going to do it again this week.
Kevin Harvick – Starting 2nd – Harvick is the highest priced driver on DraftKings this weekend, but I also think he has the most upside. Vegas has Harvick as the biggest favorite to pick up the win this weekend. He’s starting on the front row and could lead a ton of laps if he’s able to get out in front of Kyle early. Only Kurt Busch was faster on a ten-lap period in final practice than Harvick. I think he could lead a lot of laps this weekend, and I think he’s one of the best GPPs plays this weekend.
Thanks again for reading! My cash game targets are in my Daily Fantasy Pitstop video that you can find here.