NASCAR Cash Game and GPP Picks: Michigan
I’m so happy to be back at the NASCAR grind this weekend. I missed not being able to play last weekend, but I can say the Playboy Mansion was a great excuse to take the weekend off.
Michigan is a very fast track, and will likely create a lot of wrecks. Running multiple lineups this weekend is something I would highly recommend, and I wouldn’t be all in on any driver. With travel and recovering, I’m writing after qualifying and practice this week.
Cash Game Picks
Kevin Harvick – Clean air is very important at Michigan, and Harvick starting on the front row is a lock in cash games for me. Kahne is fast, but I don’t see him holding off Harvick very long. Harvick has been dominating this season and continues to be a top option every week. He has a 119.5 driver rating here over the last four races, compared to his 90.2 driver rating here since 2005. Since 2013, he has four top tens with an average finish of second. I like his chances to win, and I will be paying up for him this week in cash games.
Joey Logano – Penske cars always run well at Michigan, and since joining Penske in 2013, Logano has been fantastic here. In those four races, he has double-digit laps led, and hasn’t finished worse than ninth. A little slow in practice, but I can see them getting that worked out and running very well Sunday. The starting position of 11th should allow a solid floor for pass diff, and enough upside at this price to pay off for you.
Kyle Larson – A little cheaper than Kasey Kahne, I much prefer Larson to Kahne this weekend. Larson doesn’t get the clean air like Kahne but has a very fast racecar starting in the middle of the field. In final practice, Larson was the fastest car on a ten-lap consecutive run. In his rookie season he looked good at Michigan but had a wreck in the August race to finish 43rd. I’m willing to risk him in cash games this weekend, and I love the pass and finish diff upside he presents this weekend.
Tournament Picks
Jimmie Johnson – This track has been difficult for the 48 team. They’ve always been fast here, but engine issues and wrecks have crushed a lot of good cars for them here. Since 2005, Johnson has the highest % of laps led (14.3%) at Michigan. The debate between Harvick and Johnson will be a thing all season, but I want exposure to both of them this weekend. Johnson won this race last June, and not getting enough credit this week for what he’s done at this track.
Martin Truex Jr. – Truex is having a very great season, and has turned all the doubters into believers at this point. Only Harvick and Kurt Busch have led more laps than him this season. He has an average finish of 7.9 this season. Truex could easily be considered a cash game play this week, but has really struggled at this track. With that said, he’s been fast in practice and is having a great season. I like his chances again this weekend, and I’m throwing out recent performance at this track.
Greg Biffle – Going into the week Biffle was one of my favorite drivers. After a lackluster qualifying performance and being slow in practice, I’ve decided to target him more in GPPs. Roush Fenway has been very good at Michigan but have not been a team performing so far this week. Biffle has two wins in the last five races here and has finished in the top ten in five of the last six races. I’m betting on them getting the car figured out, and him driving through the pack this weekend. He has the highest driver rating among active drivers at this track and is second to Johnson in % of laps led here since 2005.
Value Picks
Ty Dillon – Dillon was an excellent source of value for you guys last weekend, and I’m going back to the well with him this weekend. I would have preferred for him to start further back, but he’s getting better with every NASCAR race. He’s proven in the XFINITY series that he’s a driver to watch. Richard Childress Racing has been the second best team since 2013 at this track and has a team this has been their best track as far as average finishes. I like Ty Dillon and Paul Menard from the RCR team this weekend.
Casey Mears – Mears has been a guy under 8k on DraftKings every week, and has put up 27, 11, and 35 fantasy points. He qualified in the 27th spot and is running in the middle of the field during practice. The last three races here at Michigan, Mears has a finish diff of +9, +7, and +8. He’s very familiar with this track, and I like his value once again this week.
Hope you guys enjoyed the article again this week. I will be around to answer any questions in the comment section. I will get back to the Funk next week, and will try to have the article up next Friday. Good luck this weekend, and make sure to check out the Major GPPs on DK.