NASCAR DFS & Betting Preview: Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 Odds & Pricing
Hey everyone, welcome to the RotoGrinders DFS NASCAR and betting recap/preview article. This is a new series for the 2022 season.
This week we head to Hampton, Georgia for the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500. The Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 is Sunday at 3:00pm EST on FOX. On Saturday, we have a XFINITY and Trucks double-header. Truck race kicks us off at 2:30pm EST, with the XFINITY race to follow at 5pm EST.
Race Preview
Atlanta Motor Speedway is the biggest wild card of the season in my opinion. We have no comps to compare it to, and we have no idea what to expect. All the drivers that did the Goodyear test have said they don’t know what to expect. Ross Chastain said, “It’s superspeedway style with the banking and the smoothness (of the asphalt), but the corners are tighter,” after the Goodyear test. Practice is so important this weekend, but for the Cup race, it’s important to pay attention to the Truck and XFINITY race. With so many unknowns, this is going to be a wild weekend. Kurt Busch, Chris Buescher, and Ross Chastain were the three Cup Series drivers who did the Goodyear test.
DraftKings NASCAR Fantasy Preview
With 325 laps, we’re looking at 32.5 laps led points and 32.5 laps completed points on FanDuel. On DraftKings, we’re looking at 146.25 fastest lap points and 81.25 laps led points, which is 227.5 potential dominator points. I’m not going to list previous Atlanta optimals because this is far from that racetrack. I’m going to be paying close attention to practice, the Truck race, and the XFINITY race. I’ll be building around practice, but my roster construction will be based off what I see on Saturday. I’ll be talking about it on the Live Breakdown show, and the By The Numbers article.
Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 Betting Odds
The books are pricing this race like a superspeedway race. The biggest favorite is 10/1, and with so many unknowns, I’m looking for aggressive longer odds. Tyler Reddick at +1800 stands out to me. He’s a very aggressive driver, and he’s a good superspeedway racer. The team has had a lot of speed this season, and I like the upside at 18/1. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is +5000 on BetMGM. If this race turns into a superspeedway type of race, Stenhouse at 50/1 is a steal. This has moved on some books, but you can still take advantage of it on BetMGM. Of the four featured matchups, Denny Hamlin over Chase Elliott at -115 stands out to me the most.
Fantasy Recap
Another week, another unique winner on DraftKings. Congrats to Smitty792 for taking down $100,000. We’re starting to see a trend with these unique lineups taking down the big tournament on DraftKings. For the third straight week, the winning lineup has had a low-owned value driver. Ty Dillon was 6.7% owned, and scored 34 points, but Todd Gilliland at 14% owned was the highest scoring driver under $6,000. Sorry for burying the lead, Chase Briscoe was the star of the show last Sunday. He made it a three-dominator race, and he did it at 8.2% ownership with 93.25 points. He was third fastest in the 5-lap average and had good lap times overall in practice. Full transparency, I didn’t believe the speed, and I faded Briscoe on Sunday. With this new car, it’s best not to fade cars with any kind of practice speed. This is three weeks in a row a driver we’re not used to being up front has shown the potential to dominate a race.
After 31.7% unique lineups last weekend, we saw an increase of 2.7% for a total of 34.4% unique lineups. Three lineups had 100+ users with the same lineup. Chase Elliott, AJ Allmendinger, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. were in all three of those lineups. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. started last because he couldn’t qualify and came in at 48% ownership. He projected as one of the top plays on the slate, and just never had the speed. Ryan Blaney was the second highest driver on the slate. He was the top projected driver in my projections and ended up being the highest scoring driver on the slate. The biggest bust of the slate was Martin Truex Jr. who wrecked and scored -9 points as the third highest owned drivers. There are still so many unknowns with this car, don’t be afraid to take chances on lower owned drivers. Especially this weekend at Atlanta.