NASCAR DFS & Betting Preview: Ruoff Mortgage 500 Odds & Pricing

Hey everyone, welcome to the RotoGrinders NASCAR DFS and betting recap/preview article. This is a new series for the 2022 season.

This week we head to Avondale, Arizona for the Ruoff Mortgage 500. The Ruoff Mortgage 500 is Sunday at 3:30pm EST on FOX. The XFINITY Series will be racing this weekend as well, Saturday at 4:30pm EST on FS1. The Trucks are off this weekend, they return at Atlanta next weekend. Kyle Larson and Martin Truex Jr. won the two races at Phoenix in the Cup Series last season. Austin Cindric and Daniel Hemric won the two XFINITY races.

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Race Preview

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Phoenix Raceway is a 1-mile tri-oval flat track. Dover and New Hampshire are the other two 1-mile tracks, but Dover is a steep track. New Hampshire and Richmond are the best two comps in my opinion. Even though the Clash was a short-flat track, it was a quarter mile, so I wouldn’t weigh that a lot this weekend. The final next gen test was at Phoenix. Todd Gilliland, Michael McDowell, Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Alex Bowman, Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr., Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Justin Haley, Daniel Hemric, Ty Dillon, Brad Keselowski, Chris Buescher, Tyler Reddick, Kevin Harvick, Aric Almirola, Chase Briscoe, Cole Custer, Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, Ross Chastain, Daniel Suarez, Kurt Busch, Austin Cindric, and Harrison Burton were the drivers involved in the two-day test. As of right now, it looks like we will have two separate practices for the Cup Series this weekend. I will give my thoughts on practice and qualifying in By The Numbers and the Driver Breakdown Show.

DraftKings NASCAR Fantasy Preview

With 312 laps, we’re looking at 31.2 laps led points and 31.2 laps completed points on FanDuel. On DraftKings, we’re looking at 140.4 fastest lap points and 78 laps led points. With 218.4 potential dominator points, we’re looking for two to three dominators on most lineups this weekend. There have been at least two dominators in six straight races here, and the pole sitter has been one of them in five of the last six. Even with the new car, I still think with this many dominator points, dominators will be important. Last year the Championship race had three dominators with two punt plays as the optimal.

Last 6 DraftKings Optimal Lineups at Auto Club (Starting Spots)

2021 2 – Martin Truex Jr. (12th), Chase Elliott (2nd), Kyle Larson (1st), Aric Almirola (18th), Joey Gase (34th), Garrett Smithley (38th) – $49,900 – 357.35 – 3 Dominators

2021 1 – Joey Logano (9th), Martin Truex Jr. (5th), Denny Hamlin (3rd), Bubba Wallace (25th), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (11th), Daniel Suarez (27th) – $49,700 – 353.1 – 3 Dominators

2020 2 – Chase Elliott (1st), Joey Logano (2nd), Jimmie Johnson (26th), William Byron (25th), Bubba Wallace (23rd), Brennan Poole (35th) – $50,000 – 381.5 – 2 Dominators

2020 1 – Kevin Harvick (2nd), Joey Logano (13th), Chase Elliott (1st), Cole Custer (16th), Ty Dillon (25th), Michael McDowell (22nd) – $49,600 – 372.5 – 3 Dominators

2019 2 – Denny Hamlin (3rd), Kyle Busch (1st), Joey Logano (2nd), Ty Dillon (29th), Daniel Hemric (27th), JJ Yeley (39th) – $49,700 – 367.25 – 3 Dominators

2019 1 – Kyle Busch (4th), Ryan Blaney (1st), Kyle Larson (31st), Clint Bowyer (26th), Ty Dillon (20th), Matt Tifft (30th) – $50,000 – 407.75 – 2 Dominators

Ruoff Mortgage 500 Betting Odds

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Over the last six races at Phoenix, there have been six different winners. Denny Hamlin has had the most raw speed in those six races, and I don’t mind an early week bet at +900 on FanDuel. I also like his top five on DraftKings at -120. He’s finished top five in five of the last six races here. Martin Truex Jr. has been strong on these short-flat tracks. Him and Hamlin had the most speed on these tracks last season. One of the featured matchups this weekend is Christopher Bell against Alex Bowman. Bell had a 5.4 average finish and was fourth in speed on these tracks. Bowman had an average finish of 10.6 and was 12th in speed. I like Bell over Bowman at -115.

Fantasy Recap

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First off, congrats to bru308 for taking down $100,000 on DraftKings. For the third straight week, we’ve had a unique lineup takedown the big tournament on DraftKings. There were three drivers over 40% ownership, and while Larson and Kurt Busch scored well, the low owned dominator points from Chastain changed the entire slate. With the prices of Chastain and Bowman, it made Larson, Kurt Busch, and Harvick obsolete. Ross Chastain and Corey Lajoie were the two biggest difference makers in most lineups. We saw a lot of ownership on five drivers, and a good amount of ownership on certain value plays. It’s early in the season with this new car and being different with value plays has really paid off.

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There were 12,423 (31.7%) unique lineups, and the most doubled up lineup was used by 205 users. It was Larson, Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, Jones, Buescher, and Ty Dillon. There were two other lineups that had 180+ users using it. While a lot of time chalk plays playout for NASCAR, you can usually make those lineups different with lower owned plays. If you were building around Larson and the Busch Brothers, you needed to focus on at least two lower owned plays. A lot changed the race, but with this new car, we’re going to see a lot more variance to start the season.

About the Author

stevietpfl
Stephen Young (stevietpfl)

The Head of Motorsports at RotoGrinders and the long-time host of the popular Morning Grind podcast, Stephen Young (aka stevietpfl) has been one of the top NASCAR, NFL, NBA, and MLB analysts in the industry since its inception. He has accumulated numerous Live Final seats and is a multiple-time finalist for the Fantasy Sports Writers Association Racing Writer of the Year. Follow Stevie on Twitter – @stevietpfl