NASCAR DFS GPP Plays and Value Picks: Coke Zero 400
The time has come, we are back in Daytona for the Coke Zero 400. This is my home track, and I’ll be live tweeting and Periscoping from the pits on Sunday night. With the new NASCAR Video Daily Fantasy Pitstop, I’ll only be focusing on GPP plays and value plays moving forward. I stand behind all the picks in the video for cash game plays this week.
I waited until after qualifying for this week’s article, and then it ended up getting rained out. NASCAR will be using the times from Practice #1 to determine the starting lineup. This created a lot of value, but actually hurt some value of certain drivers. So with that said, let’s get into the picks for this week.
Tournament Plays
Denny Hamlin – One of the drivers affected by the canceled qualifying was Hamlin. He instantly became a top play with his 35th starting position. Starting in the back of the field hasn’t affected Hamlin, he started 42nd and finished fourth in the February Daytona race, and last July he started 37th and finished sixth. He has top-ten finishes in three straight Daytona races, with an average running position of 9.2 over those three races. This is a very strong number at a plate race. Over the last ten years, Hamlin has been the fourth-fastest driver at the end of runs here at Daytona.
Joey Logano – The reason I wait to write these articles until after qualifying, is to find the studs like Logano and Hamlin. The Daytona 500 winner will be starting in the 33rd spot on Sunday. We’ve seen Logano start at the back (28th or worse) in Daytona four times. In each of those races, he finished with a positive place differential, and had a total place differential of +84. Wrecks are a big concern at Daytona, but with Logano starting this far back, I’ll take my chances on him avoiding a early wreck.
Tony Stewart – No active driver has more wins at Daytona in July than Tony Stewart. He’s starting 31st and knows how to win at this track this time of year. He’s only a GPP play this week for me, and it’s because of his recent Daytona performance and the season he’s having. Looking at his last five Daytona races: 42nd, 40th, 35th, 2nd, and 41st. He’s a middle-tier driver with a ton of upside this weekend.
Value Plays
Bobby Labonte – We don’t get to see Labonte a lot during the season anymore, but he’s certainly someone to keep an eye on this weekend. Starting 38th this weekend, Labonte has some good opportunity for place differential points. He started 43rd and finished 24th in the Daytona 500 this year. He has ten races here since July 3rd, 2010, and has a positive place differential in eight of those ten races. Don’t expect a lot from him this weekend, but at his price you won’t need much to have him hit value.
Aric Almirola – Like I mentioned in my video, I still prefer Danica Patrick over Almirola in cash games. Almirola is the defending champion of the July race, and definitely has the equipment to get the job done with Richard Petty Motorsports. Outside of his last two Daytona races, Almirola hasn’t had much success here. He started 33rd and finished 15th at the Daytona 500 this year. He’s starting 36th this weekend, and should be an excellent value play if he can stay out of trouble.
Good luck again this weekend! If you have any questions, leave me a comment and I’ll answer it ASAP.