NASCAR Projections Review: Citizen Soldier 400
Hey NASCAR Grinders, I’m Joe, also known as DFS_Analytics on twitter, and I’ll be providing a weekly recap of my NASCAR projections which are available within Stevie’s NASCAR package in the RotoGrinders Daily Marketplace.
First, let me get a brief introduction out of the way. I’ve been doing some behind the scenes work here at RotoGrinders for about a year, I developed a model to help with NBA projections last season and I have worked on a few models to score the CVR rankings for MLB and NFL. I was super stoked when Stevie asked me to be a part of this new NASCAR package, finally giving me a chance to put some content out directly to the consumer.
Anyway, in this space each week I’ll be recapping the NASCAR projections, hopefully with some really positive results. The format will likely evolve from week to week as I figure this thing out, but for the most part I will focus on each of the 3 “grade” categories and the overall projection. So, without further adieu…
The Citizen Soldier 400 was a pretty unique race, generally you get a slow start with some long green flag runs and then a flurry of crashes and cars failing at the end of the race, this race was the exact opposite. Within the first 40 laps, we lost Kevin Harvick to a broken trackbar mount and Kyle Larson to a loose battery cable and ensuing pit penalty that put him down 3 laps right out of the gate. Ryan Blaney blew a tire and went into the wall, ending his chances to compete. A little later in the race Jamie McMurray complained of vibration and then blew his engine a few laps later. This all happened before they went 202 of 400 laps without a caution to end the race, with only 6 cars finishing on the lead lap.
Finish Potential Grade
The first of 3 grade columns produced by the projection model grades each drivers finish potential. Generally speaking, an A grade means a chance to win, B = Top 5, C = Top 10, D = Top 20 and F = everyone else. This week we gave out 5 A grades, with one of them being Harvick, who wrecked early. The model graded Truex as a B for whatever reason, and while I considered bumping it to an A, I decided to leave it since he had his win in this round and didn’t need to press as hard. We gave 13 grades of B or better, with 9 of those finishing in the top 10, the other 4 were the previously mentioned Harvick and Larson, who had trouble, along with Carl Edwards (14th) and Kurt Busch (15th). Austin Dillon exceeded his finish projection the most, finishing 8th with a D grade.
Mover Potential Grade
The second piece, is the mover grade, which looks at every driver’s chance of gaining positions from start to finish. This will generally be the best column to look at to find your value picks. Brian Scott, who was one of Stevie’s cash plays, tops the mover board, though with just a C grade. This week there were 5 A grades, with all 5 gaining at least 4 positions. The biggest misses in this group were not the drivers that we graded well, but rather the drivers that we graded low and performed above expectations. As was the case with the finish grade, Austin Dillon was once again the biggest miss. I’ll certainly be digging into the model today to see what could have caused him to be graded so low across the board.
Dominator Potential Grade
The final graded piece of the projection model relates to dominator points (Laps Led and Fastest Laps). Nailing the dominators is the key to winning a GPP, depending on the number of laps, you’ll generally see one to three guys hogging the dominator points. This week we gave two A grades, to the front row starters, and five B grades, with all 3 main dominators coming from that group. Brad Keselowski led the first 5 laps before giving way to Martin Truex Jr. Kyle Busch took over a few laps later and dominated much of the early portion of the race. Jimmie Johnson would lead for a large chunk before receiving a pit road penalty, giving way to Martin Truex to take over for the rest of the way.
Overall Projection Results
Lastly, and this may need some explanation, is a graph that shows how the projections did overall. In this graph, the black horizontal lines are the projection for each driver, with the vertical bar representing the floor and ceiling. The red X is their actual DK score. The results this week are generally what we hope to see, the guys that finished way below their floor are the guys that had wrecked or had car trouble (Harvick, McMurray, Larson, Blaney) and the guys that finish way above their ceiling are the guys that dominate the race (Truex, Busch, Johnson). Wrecks and car troubles will happen, and they are impossible to predict, so while Harvick may have ruined the day for many DFSers, including myself, that is part of the game. On the other end of the spectrum, we CAN predict those who will far exceed their projection, by using the Dominator Potential grade, in this case all 3 guys received A or B grades, so there should have been plenty of rosters stacking up easy points. It’s always a tough race when the starting grid is set by points, so I look forward to some rain free weeks ahead.
Thanks for taking the time to read this recap, as I mentioned earlier, I plan on streamlining it a bit so it’s an easier read. If you were on the fence about subscribing, hopefully this helps show you the quality of the projections involved in the package. Stevie and I have put a ton of work into this NASCAR package, especially Steve getting it all set up and ready to launch, and we think it’s a great product. Next week we head to Charlotte, for the Bank of America 500, which begins round of the Chase, let’s pray for good weather so they can get qualifying in.