NBA Advanced Matchups: Friday, April 10th
Welcome to the NBA Advanced Matchups, presented by Ohnjz. I’ll be taking you deep into the depths of NBA advanced stats to uncover the top plays in each NBA slate (with four or more games). We’ll consider a broad spectrum of metrics here, including SPORTSVU player and shot tracking, play type data, individual defensive metrics, and my personal favorite, Ohnjz’ bad-jokes-and-snarky-comments-per-article. As always, this work is meant as a guide to help you hone in on what advanced stats would suggest are some of the top plays – but it’s ultimately up to you to decide how to build your lineups.
MINDFULNESS
Before we dig into the Advanced Matchups, we’ll take note of the team and game situations that can impact our decision-making each day.
BLOWOUT CONCERNS
| ROAD TEAM | HOME TEAM | FAVORITE |
| KINGS | THUNDER | THUNDER -14 |
| HORNETS | HAWKS | HAWKS -9.5 |
| SUNS | PELICANS | PELICANS -9 |
| BUCKS | KNICKS | BUCKS -8.5 |
FATIGUE CONCERNS
| 3 GAMES IN 4 NIGHTS | HAWKS, HORNETS, TIMBERWOLVES, PELICANS, SUNS |
| 4 GAMES IN 5 NIGHTS | LAKERS, KINGS, SPURS |
UNDER THE MICROSCOPE
TARGET THE WOLVES/LAKERS GAME
Ladies and gentlemen, the Minnesota Timberwolves are NOT double-digit underdogs tonight! #Progress
The five-point spread on tonight’s Wolves/Lakers game isn’t as much an indication that the Wolves have improved as it is an indictment of both teams as the season winds to a close. The game’s 206.5 total checks in as the third-highest tonight, which reminds us that not only do both teams have capable volume scorers – neither squad plays a lick of defense. DVP disciples are licking their chops here: these squads are in the bottom ten in DVP at nine of ten possible positions. Here’s each team’s top-three weak spots:
•WOLVES – PG: 29TH, SF: 29TH, C: 28TH
•LAKERS – PG: 30TH, SG: 26TH, SF: 24TH
As you can see, this is about as close to a Gary Oldman game as you can get in the NBA. Let’s take a look at how to attack each team individually tonight.
LAKERS PG JORDAN CLARKSON
With the recent report that PG Jeremy Lin is OUT tonight, Jordan Clarkson is locked into heavy minutes and is a high-upside option tonight. Clarkson has been a revelation for the Lakers, and everyone from Chris Paul to Lakers’ HC and grumpy curmudgeon Byron Scott has said nice things about him. Clarkson is a natural scorer and has been the Lakers primary scoring threat for weeks now. He’s scored at least 18 points in eight of his last ten games thanks to heavy shot volume (14+ shots eight times over that span). The Timberwolves will offer little to no resistance for Clarkson. They allow the most points in the league, and are in the bottom-four against both PGs (29th in PG DVP) and SGs (27th in SG DVP) this season. Zach LaVine has been one of the worst defenders in the league this season, grading out as the second-worst defender (471st out of 472) in terms of real plus-minus. Kevin Martin’s defensive disinterest has been talked about for years, and he hasn’t graded out much better this season (416th in defensive real plus-minus). Clarkson should have a field day against the Wolves tonight.
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