NBA Advanced Matchups: Friday, April 3rd
Welcome to the NBA Advanced Matchups, presented by Ohnjz. I’ll be taking you deep into the depths of NBA advanced stats to uncover the top plays in each NBA slate (with four or more games). We’ll consider a broad spectrum of metrics here, including SPORTSVU player and shot tracking, play type data, individual defensive metrics, and my personal favorite, Ohnjz’ bad-jokes-and-snarky-comments-per-article. As always, this work is meant as a guide to help you hone in on what advanced stats would suggest are some of the top plays – but it’s ultimately up to you to decide how to build your lineups.
MINDFULNESS
Before we dig into the Advanced Matchups, we’ll take note of the team and game situations that can impact our decision-making each day
BLOWOUT CONCERNS
| Road Team | Home Team | Favorite |
| Knicks | Wizards | Wizards -14.5 |
| Nuggets | Spurs | Spurs -12.5 |
| Trail Blazers | Lakers | Blazers -10.5 |
| Pistons | Bulls | Bulls -9 |
FATIGUE CONCERNS
| 3 Games in 4 Nights | Nets, Pistons, Pacers, Spurs |
UNDER THE MICROSCOPE
TARGET THE MAGIC/WOLVES GAME
An attractive mix of value options and high-upside tournament targets are to be found in tonight’s game between the Magic and Timberwolves. Neither team plays a lick of defense, either. The Wolves allow the MOST points in the NBA, and the Magic aren’t far behind (sixth). Both teams also struggle against multiple individual positions, with the Wolves in the bottom-10 in FPPG allowed to every single position, and the Magic in the bottom-10 in every position except SG. Here’s each team’s three weakest links:
•WOLVES – PG: 29th, C: 28th, SG: 27th
•MAGIC – SF: 30th, PG: 23rd, PF: 23rd
With these weaknesses in mind, let’s take a look at some players we can target to exploit each team tonight.
MAGIC C NIKOLA VUCEVIC
Vuc has been a forgotten man in DFS over the last month with so many enticing options emerging. Nothing’s really changed with the big fella himself: he’s still an offensive focal point for the Magic (20+ points in three of his last five games), and is a voluminous rebounder (10+ rebounds in seven of the last eight games he’s played 30+ minutes). Unfortunately for Vuc, his team has been at full health lately which has reduced his offensive load. However, I think that workload returns against the Wolves tonight.
I’ve talked at length about the Wolves’ horrific interior defense this season, which has become almost a non-entity due to injuries. This is a squad that gave up 78 points in the paint to the Nets not long ago, that gave up 18 points to Dwight Howard in less than 20 minutes last week, and gave up nearly 30 rebounds to Rudy Gobert alone in their two meetings with the Jazz. Team’s frontcourt ain’t good. Opponents are making more shots within 5 feet of the hoop against the Wolves than any other team in the NBA, and over 60% of Vuc’s shots come within 10 feet. Most of these shots are via post-up plays (seventh most in the NBA). As you might imagine, the Wolves struggle versus post-up plays, allowing the third-most points-per-possession on this play type. It seems like a perfect match for the Magic big man. A 20 & 10 performance should be the absolute floor for Vuc tonight.
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