NBA Advanced Matchups: Friday, March 20th
Welcome to the NBA Advanced Matchups, presented by Ohnjz. I’ll be taking you deep into the depths of NBA advanced stats to uncover the top plays in each NBA slate (with four or more games). We’ll consider a broad spectrum of metrics here, including SPORTSVU player and shot tracking, play type data, individual defensive metrics, and my personal favorite, Ohnjz’ bad-jokes-and-snarky-comments-per-article. As always, this work is meant as a guide to help you hone in on what advanced stats would suggest are some of the top plays – but it’s ultimately up to you to decide how to build your lineups.
MINDFULNESS
Before we dig into the Advanced Matchups, we’ll take note of the team and game situations that can impact our decision-making each day.
Blowout Concerns
• Pacers at Cavaliers: Cavs -11
• Celtics at Spurs: Spurs -9
• Pelicans at Warriors: Warriors -13
Fatigue Concerns
• Back To Back: Nuggets
• 3 Games In 4 Nights: Clippers, Bucks, Magic
• 3-In-4 And B2B: Pelicans, Knicks
VALUE: THUNDER C STEVEN ADAMS
With both Serge Ibaka & Enes Kanter ruled out tonight, the Thunder are suddenly hopelessly thin up front. Steven Adams will see an inevitable boost in minutes as a result. While that’s not a guarantee for success against a tough defensive team like the Hawks, at Adams bargain salary it’s hard to not expect him to reach value with minutes in the upper 30s. The Hawks have actually been sneakily susceptible to opposing centers in recent weeks (28th in C DVP last three weeks), which should benefit Adams despite his lack of significant involvement in the Thunder offense. The one issue here is foul trouble, as even though Adams is a high-motor and dogged defender, he’s been awful foul-prone. As his minutes increase, that’s the only thing holding him back.
AVOID BULLS C JOAKIM NOAH
The main reason that Joakim Noah hasn’t been included here to date has nothing to do with his skill – it’s because he’s been on a minutes limit. The Bulls have attempted to cap Noah at roughly 32 minutes per game according to several reports. That has been enough for him to live comfortably in the 30-35 FPT range, but has killed most of the upside that his skillset as a defensive anchor and facilitator provides. With PF Taj Gibson nearing a return (he may even play tonight), there will be less minutes to go around in the Bulls frontcourt, and it will be even easier for the Bulls coaches to monitor Noah.
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