NBA Advanced Matchups: Friday, March 27th
Welcome to the NBA Advanced Matchups, presented by Ohnjz. I’ll be taking you deep into the depths of NBA advanced stats to uncover the top plays in each NBA slate (with four or more games). We’ll consider a broad spectrum of metrics here, including SPORTSVU player and shot tracking, play type data, individual defensive metrics, and my personal favorite, Ohnjz’ bad-jokes-and-snarky-comments-per-article. As always, this work is meant as a guide to help you hone in on what advanced stats would suggest are some of the top plays – but it’s ultimately up to you to decide how to build your lineups.
MINDFULNESS
Before we dig into the Advanced Matchups, we’ll take note of the team and game situations that can impact our decision-making each day
Blowout Concerns
• Timberwolves at Rockets: Rockets -13
• Clippers at 76ers: Clippers -12.5
• Celtics at Knicks: Celtics -9.5
• Mavericks at Spurs: Spurs -9.5
• Cavaliers at Nets: Cavs -9
• Lakers at Raptors: Raptors -9
• Heat at Hawks: Hawks -8.5
Fatigue Concerns
• 3 Games In 4 Nights: Lakers, Heat, 76ers, Blazers, Kings, Spurs, Raptors
CHEAP PRODUCE
Like Wednesday, we’ve got an awfully plump slate (13 games) on our hands tonight ladies and gentlemen. People seemed to like the Value Town route we took in Wednesday’s AMP, so we’ll again look at some emerging values as tonight’s injury news flood in
FRESH VALUE: HAWKS PG DENNIS SCHRODER
Schroder emerged as a prime value target this afternoon after Jeff Teague (Hawks’ starting PG) was ruled out. We’ve seen what the German dynamo is capable of in a starting roles this season, and we’ve even seen what he’s capable of against the Heat in particular: Schroder crept toward 40 FPTS against the Heat on February 2nd, finishing with 16 points and 10 assists in 35 minutes of work. Reports suggest that no other Hawks’ starters will be rested tonight, which I think helps Schroder’s assist potential with so many potent scorers surrounding him.
The matchup tonight will be fascinating from a schematic standpoint: Schroder derives over 50% of his play types from pick-and-roll ball-handler plays, the fourth-highest frequency in the NBA. He’s effective on those plays (66th percentile on points-per-possession on PNR ball-handler plays), but he isn’t elite. And he faces the Heat, who allow the third-fewest points-per-possession on PNR ball-handler plays. This looks like a problem for Schroder, but we have to factor in that Hassan Whiteside has been ruled out, and reports also suggest Chris Anderson is unlikely to play as well. That’s approximately 100% of the Heat’s rim protection. Schroder is a blur when he gets going, and I expect him to do plenty of damage if he can blow by Goran Dragic. The Heat won’t be able to provide much help on Schroder’s drives with three All-Star Hawks surrounding him.
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