NBA Advanced Matchups: Monday, March 16th
Welcome to the NBA Advanced Matchups, presented by Ohnjz. I’ll be taking you deep into the depths of NBA advanced stats to uncover the top plays in each NBA slate (with 4 or more games). We’ll consider a broad spectrum of metrics here, including SPORTSVU player and shot tracking, play type data, individual defensive metrics, and my personal favorite, Ohnjz’ bad-jokes-and-snarky-comments-per-article.
As always, this work is meant as a guide to help you hone in on what advanced stats would suggest are some of the top plays – but it’s ultimately up to you to decide how to build your lineups.
UNDER THE MICROSCOPE
TOURNAMENT STUD: WARRIORS PG STEPHEN CURRY
With Russell Westbrook on the slate, and the Warriors a completely preposterous 18-point favorite tonight, Steph Curry figures to be largely overlooked. But if the Warriors are going to meet that lofty Vegas spread, somebody is going to have to pour in the points – and let’s not forget that Curry has already done so twice against the Lakers this season:
• Nov 11 – Warriors Won By 17 – Curry Line: 31 points (10-19 FG 3-8 3PM), 5 rebounds, 10 assists, 3 steals
• Nov 16 – Warriors Won By 21 – Curry Line: 30 points, 4 rebounds, 15 assists, 1 steal
Those are some massive performances in complete blowout situations. And it makes sense: everything about Curry is tailored to destroy this matchup. The Lakers are literally the worst in the NBA vs PGs (30th in PG DVP). They also allow the 5th-most points-per-possession (PPP) on pick-and-roll plays finished by the ball-handler; Curry is in the 93rd percentile in PPP on those plays. Finally, the Lakers defensive lapses in transition (5th-highest PPP allowed) contribute both to Curry’s individual scoring and his massive assist totals. There’s no denying the blowout risk here – but the same could have been said vs the Knicks on Saturday (when Curry had a B-day 50+ FPT performance). If you’re looking to be different in a tournament, Curry has an elite ceiling tonight.
Continue Reading Advanced Matchups: FanDuel Members or DraftKings Members
Take Your Game to the Next Level!
Each weekday when there are 4 or more late-slate games, Ohnjz will bring FanDuel & DraftKings Incentives members Advanced Matchup breakdowns for that day’s NBA games. These data-driven breakdowns will provide you insight & analysis you can’t find anywhere else. Enjoy!
Buy NBA Incentives Now!
