NBA Advanced Matchups: Monday, March 23rd
Welcome to the NBA Advanced Matchups, presented by Ohnjz. I’ll be taking you deep into the depths of NBA advanced stats to uncover the top plays in each NBA slate (with 4 or more games). We’ll consider a broad spectrum of metrics here, including SPORTSVU player and shot tracking, play type data, individual defensive metrics, and my personal favorite, Ohnjz’ bad-jokes-and-snarky-comments-per-article. As always, this work is meant as a guide to help you hone in on what advanced stats would suggest are some of the top plays – but it’s ultimately up to you to decide how to build your lineups.
MINDFULNESS
Before we dig into the Advanced Matchups, we’ll take note of the team and game situations that can impact our decision-making each day
BLOWOUT CONCERNS
•GRIZZLIES at KNICKS: GRIZZLIES -13
•TIMBERWOLVES at JAZZ: JAZZ -11.5
•WIZARDS at WARRIORS: WARRIORS -11.5
FATIGUE CONCERNS
•LOTS OF FATIGUE SITUATIONS TONIGHT – BE MINDFUL!
•BACK-TO-BACK: TIMBERWOLVES
• 3 GAMES IN 4 NIGHTS: NETS, WARRIORS, PACERS, GRIZZLIES
• 3-IN-4 AND B2B: CELTICS, HORNETS, WIZARDS
• B2B AND 4 GAMES IN 5 NIGHTS: KNICKS
UNDER THE MICROSCOPE
TARGET THE JAZZ BIGS
Last Monday the Timberwolves gave up 78 points in the paint to the Brooklyn Nets. Seventy Eight. The Nets were literally scoring at will. It was disgusting. With the Wolves having no reason to actually play their gimpy veteran bigs, and C Justin Hamilton still out with an illness, there’s literally nobody left to play defense. While the game could and should be a stomp in favor of the Jazz, the path of least resistance for them offensively is to go down low to PF Derrick Favors (and C Rudy Gobert). Especially considering that SF Gordon Hayward – the Jazz’s primary scorer – is Questionable tonight and already missed today’s shootaround. The majority of Favors’ offense comes from traditional post-ups, from being the roll-man on pick-and-roll plays, and from offensive cuts (where Favors has scored more points than any other player). The Timberwolves are in the Bottom-8 in points-per-possession allowed to each of these play types. They also allow the second-most PPP on putbacks off rebounds – which is a dangerous weakness to have when facing Rudy Gobert. Despite only starting for half the season, Gobert has the 6th-most offensive putbacks in the NBA. He also had 6 blocks the last time these teams faced, and should be licking his chops at the prospects of someone like Zach LaVine thinking he can take it to the rack on the best rim protector in the NBA. Gobert has looked human in his last 2 games but is in a prime bounce-back spot thanks to the matchup. He and Favors both have massive upside tonight (especially if Gordon Hayward is out).
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