NBA Advanced Matchups: Saturday, April 11th
Welcome to the NBA Advanced Matchups, presented by Ohnjz. I’ll be taking you deep into the depths of NBA advanced stats to uncover the top plays in each NBA slate (with four or more games). We’ll consider a broad spectrum of metrics here, including SPORTSVU player and shot tracking, play type data, individual defensive metrics, and my personal favorite, Ohnjz’ bad-jokes-and-snarky-comments-per-article. As always, this work is meant as a guide to help you hone in on what advanced stats would suggest are some of the top plays – but it’s ultimately up to you to decide how to build your lineups.
MINDFULNESS
Before we dig into the Advanced Matchups, we’ll take note of the team and game situations that can impact our decision-making each day
BLOWOUT CONCERNS
| ROAD TEAM | HOME TEAM | FAVORITE |
|---|---|---|
| KNICKS | MAGIC | MAGIC -11 |
| 76ERS | BULLS | BULLS -13.5 |
| GRIZZLIES | CLIPPERS | CLIPPERS -8 |
| TIMBERWOLVES | WARRIORS | WARRIORS -19.5 |
FATIGUE CONCERNS
| 3 GAMES IN 4 NIGHTS | BULLS, BLAZERS |
| BACK2BACK AND 3-IN-4 | GRIZZLIES, KNICKS, MAGIC, RAPTORS, JAZZ |
| BACK2BACK AND 4 GAMES IN 5 NIGHTS | TIMBERWOLVES |
UNDER THE MICROSCOPE
MAGIC NIKOLA VUCEVIC
The flowchart for targeting Nikola Vucevic this season is pretty simple:
• Is Tobias Harris or Victor Oladipo out tonight? – If Yes, play Nikola Vucevic
• Are the Magic facing a team with one of the most favorable frontcourt matchups? – If Yes, play Nikola Vucevic
The first criteria is pretty obvious – Vuc sees a heavier offensive workload when either of his wing scorers are out. But let’s not forget about the monstrous games that Vuc has had against teams that he should dominate. It was just last Friday that Vuc was the AMP poster boy thanks to a matchup with a Wolves squad that had been hammered by opposing big men for weeks; Vuc stomped the Wolves for a career-high 37 points and 17 boards that night. That’s just one of several examples where Vuc has exploited a wimpy frontcourt this season:
• vs Timberwolves – 37 points, 17 rebounds (60+ FPTS)
• vs 76ers – 31 points, 14 rebounds (55+ FPTS)
• vs Knicks – 28 points, 18 rebounds (~50 FPTS)
• vs Lakers – 25 points, 13 rebounds (50+ FPTS)
• vs Knicks – 34 points, 18 rebounds (65+ FPTS)
Beyond being among the NBA’s worst teams this season, the teams listed above all currently rank in the bottom-10 in terms of FPPG allowed to opposing centers. The Knicks – who Vuc has already thumped for 50+ FPTS twice this season – are in the bottom-five vs centers, ranking 26th. The Knicks have real issues defending down low, as evidenced by their inefficiency against post-up plays: the Knicks allow the seventh-most points-per-possession on post-up plays. That should prove disastrous against Vuc, who has scored the seventh-most points on post-up plays this season.
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