NBA Advanced Matchups: Saturday, April 4th
Welcome to the NBA Advanced Matchups, presented by Ohnjz. I’ll be taking you deep into the depths of NBA advanced stats to uncover the top plays in each NBA slate (with four or more games). We’ll consider a broad spectrum of metrics here, including SPORTSVU player and shot tracking, play type data, individual defensive metrics, and my personal favorite, Ohnjz’ bad-jokes-and-snarky-comments-per-article. As always, this work is meant as a guide to help you hone in on what advanced stats would suggest are some of the top plays – but it’s ultimately up to you to decide how to build your lineups.
MINDFULNESS
Before we dig into the Advanced Matchups, we’ll take note of the team and game situations that can impact our decision-making each day.
Blowout Concerns
| Road Team | Home Team | Favorite |
| Clippers | Nuggets | Clippers -9.5 |
| Nets | Hawks | Hawks -9 |
| Magic | Bucks | Bucks -8 |
Fatigue Concerns
Lots of fatigue possibilities tonight friends, be mindful!
| Back To Back | Grizzlies |
| 3 Games In 4 Nights | Mavericks |
| B2B And 3-In-4 | Celtics, Hornets, Nuggets, Bucks, Pelicans, Magic, Blazers, Raptors, Wizards |
| B2B And 4-In-5 | Nets, Pistons |
UNDER THE MICROSCOPE
PELICANS PG TYREKE EVANS
“Pick on Damian Lillard Week” continues here tonight as Tyreke Evans will aim to be the third straight PG to drop 40+ FPTS on Lillard and the Blazers. The Blazers PG DVP had been bad before this week, but then Chris Paul straight up broke the scale on Wednesday (80+ FPTS). Jordan Clarkson poured on another 40+ just last night. As I showed in last night’s AMP, Paul and Clarkson are just two in a long lineage of Lillard-stomping PGs:
• Chris Paul: 41 Points (12-21 FG, 5-9 3PM, 10 FT)
• Steph Curry: 33 Points (13-22 FG, 5-9 3PM)
• Mike Conley: 21 Points (8-11 FG, 3-5 3PM)
• Elfrid Payton: 22 Points (10-13 FG)
• Goran Dragic: 20 Points (9-16 FG)
Pretty good for a few week’s work. Of the players above, Evans’ profiles most similarly to Dragic and Payton in that he’s a slasher – but he does so far more often than either of the aforementioned players (fifth in the NBA in drives per game). The majority of Evans’ offense thus predictably comes from isolation plays (third most) and off the pick-and-roll. Evans’ ISO frequency is going to give Lillard fits, as the Blazers PG is in the 89th percentile in points-per-possession allowed to the isolation play type. He’s simply too small (6’3, 195 lbs) to stay in front of the bigger, stronger Evans (6’6, 220 lbs) as he barrels to the hoop.
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