NBA Advanced Matchups: Saturday, March 14th
Welcome to the NBA Advanced Matchups, presented by Ohnjz. I’ll be taking you deep into the depths of NBA advanced stats to uncover the top plays in each NBA slate (with four or more games). We’ll consider a broad spectrum of metrics here, including SPORTSVU player and shot tracking, play type data, individual defensive metrics, and my personal favorite, Ohnjz’ bad-jokes-and-snarky-comments-per-article. As always, this work is meant as a guide to help you hone in on what advanced stats would suggest are some of the top plays – but it’s ultimately up to you to decide how to build your lineups.
MINDFULNESS
Before we dig into the matchups each day, we’ll take note of some team and game factors that should factor into our decision-making.
Blowout Concerns
Celtics vs Pacers: Pacers -8.5
Kings vs Wizards: Wizards -8.5
Knicks vs Warriors: Warriors -19.5 (Author’s Note: Holy $*&^)
Fatigue Concerns
Pistons – fourth game in five nights
Celtics – third game in four nights
Bucks – third game in four nights
76ers – third game in four nights
Kings – third game in four nights
Warriors – third game in four nights (Note: They rested their starters in the last game)
Grizzlies – third game in four nights (Note: They rested their starters in the last game)
Do you guys like this section? If it’s helpful I’ll keep adding it. Let me know in the comments (and thanks to those that commented yesterday!)
UNDER THE MICROSCOPE
KINGS C DEMARCUS COUSINS
Fresh off a 39-point, 24-rebound dismantling of the 76ers last night (though to be fair, the Sixers still won), DeMarcus Cousins is again in play tonight against the Wizards. Unlike last night, however, it’s not because of the matchup. Typically we avoid bigs against the Wizards (third in C DVP this season), but the high-usage Cousins might literally take every shot for the Kings tonight, as stud SF Rudy Gay is reportedly ‘Doubtful’ for tonight’s game. Gay averages over 16 shots a game this season, but has actually seen that number jump to over 18.5 over the last ten days; there are also often games where Gay sees his shot total balloon to 20+, with four such games in his last ten. I think you see where I’m going with this: If Gay is out, all those shots have to be redistributed to the healthy Kings. Problem is, besides Boogie (and possibly Ben McLemore) the Kings don’t really have anybody else who is an offensive threat. So despite the tough matchup with Wizards’ C Marcin Gortat, Boogie should be a DFS monster tonight through sheer shot quantity alone.
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Each day when there are four or more late-slate games, Ohnjz will bring FanDuel & DraftKings Incentives members Advanced Matchup breakdowns for that day’s NBA games. These data-driven breakdowns will provide you insight & analysis you can’t find anywhere else. Enjoy!
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