NBA Advanced Matchups: Saturday, March 28th
Welcome to the NBA Advanced Matchups, presented by Ohnjz. I’ll be taking you deep into the depths of NBA advanced stats to uncover the top plays in each NBA slate (with four or more games). We’ll consider a broad spectrum of metrics here, including SPORTSVU player and shot tracking, play type data, individual defensive metrics, and my personal favorite, Ohnjz’ bad-jokes-and-snarky-comments-per-article. As always, this work is meant as a guide to help you hone in on what advanced stats would suggest are some of the top plays – but it’s ultimately up to you to decide how to build your lineups.
MINDFULNESS
Before we dig into the Advanced Matchups, we’ll take note of the team and game situations that can impact our decision-making each day
Blowout Concerns
• Knicks at Bulls: Bulls -16.5
• Nuggets at Trail Blazers: Blazers -8.5
Fatigue Concerns
•Lots of possible fatigue issues tonight, friends. Be mindful!
• Back To Back: Warriors
• 3 Games In 4 Nights And B2B: Hawks, Hornets, Nuggets, Knicks, Jazz
• 4 Games In 5 Nights And B2B: Blazers
UNDER THE MICROSCOPE
PG RUSSELL WESTBROOK
The shine has started to come off for Westbrook in his inevitable descent back to Earth over the last few games. With his teammates dropping like flies, GODBROOK is slowly succumbing to his own constant Hero Mode (or at least the sub-30 minutes of work he’s seen in his last two games); the turnovers remain high, and the shooting remains scattershot. Coming off his worst DFS performance since January, GODBROOK now faces the NBA’s best post-All-Star Break defense in the Utah Jazz. The Jazz have stifled multiple elite scorers and basically every position overall during their hot run (top-5 in DVP to every position except PF over the last three weeks). Regular readers know how much I gush about the absurdity of the Jazz defense… yet, I think there’s sneaky upside for Russ here. Take a look at some of the lines that other elite PGs have dropped on the Jazz lately:
• (3/25/15) Damian Lillard: 23 points, 12 assists
• (3/21/15) Steph Curry: 24 points
• (3/18/15) John Wall: 24 points
•AND JUST FOR FUN – (3/23/15) Zach Lavine, 27 points
Elite players are capable of doing elite things vs any team, but the lines above at least show that the Jazz defense isn’t impenetrable. While guys like James Harden, and plenty of great bigs have struggled attack the Jazz from other positions, these PGs have found much more individual success. And none of them is the focal point of their own team’s offense like Russ is. It’s risky, but Westbrook’s opportunity is better than people think tonight.
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