NBA Advanced Matchups: Sunday, April 5th
Welcome to the NBA Advanced Matchups, presented by Ohnjz. I’ll be taking you deep into the depths of NBA advanced stats to uncover the top plays in each NBA slate (with four or more games). We’ll consider a broad spectrum of metrics here, including SPORTSVU player and shot tracking, play type data, individual defensive metrics, and my personal favorite, Ohnjz’ bad-jokes-and-snarky-comments-per-article. As always, this work is meant as a guide to help you hone in on what advanced stats would suggest are some of the top plays – but it’s ultimately up to you to decide how to build your lineups.
MINDFULNESS
Before we dig into the Advanced Matchups, we’ll take note of the team and game situations that can impact our decision-making each day.
Blowout Concerns
| Road Team | Home Team | Favorite |
| Clippers | Lakers | Clippers -12.5 |
Fatigue Concerns
| Back To Back | Clippers, 76ers, Jazz |
| B2B And 3-In-4 | Warriors, Heat |
UNDER THE MICROSCOPE
SPURS SF KAWHI LEONARD
I’m torn here. On one hand, this certainly looks like a bad matchup for Kawhi: the Warriors allow the ninth-fewest FPPG to opposing SFs this season. They play excellent team defense, and have a propensity for absolutely blowing out their opponents. Both Klay Thompson and Harrison Barnes are effective perimeter defenders as well. But Kawhi also has a lot in his favor here. It starts with the situation: there’s room for the Spurs to move within the playoff standings, which will hopefully secure Kawhi’s minutes. Kawhi will also benefit from a higher pace in this game with plenty of transition opportunities. As a focal point of a Spurs offense that needs to win, Kawhi should see 35+ minutes and grind out 20+ real points.
JAZZ SF GORDON HAYWARD
Hayward has a massive opportunity against the Rudy Gay-less Sacramento Kings tonight. Hayward has been up to his usual tricks of late, regularly flirting with 40+ FPTs thanks to a multi-faceted offensive game (15+ shots in four of his last five, 5+ 3PA in four of five, at least 5 FTA in each of last five), ~10 combined assists and rebounds per game, and multi-steal potential. Hayward’s ability to contribute solidly across the board gives him sneaky upside in most matchups, which should be on full display tonight against the Kings. We’ve targeted the Kings with wing players all season, and their generosity has continued under new coach George Karl (26th in SG DVP and 24th in SF DVP over the last three weeks). Hayward’s had plenty of success against the pre-Karl Kings, with 40+ FPTS in their two meetings this season. That includes a 30-point barrage back in February. Against a sloppy and depleted Kings squad, Hayward should crack 40 FPTS for the third time this season.
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