NBA Advanced Matchups: Thursday, March 19th
Welcome to the NBA Advanced Matchups, presented by Ohnjz. I’ll be taking you deep into the depths of NBA advanced stats to uncover the top plays in each NBA slate (with 4 or more games). We’ll consider a broad spectrum of metrics here, including SPORTSVU player and shot tracking, play type data, individual defensive metrics, and my personal favorite, Ohnjz’ bad-jokes-and-snarky-comments-per-article.
As always, this work is meant as a guide to help you hone in on what advanced stats would suggest are some of the top plays – but it’s ultimately up to you to decide how to build your lineups.
UNDER THE MICROSCOPE
THE HOUSTON BIGS
Obviously, we try to always target bigs against the Nuggets frontcourt. Today is no different. The Rockets “center” Donatas Motiejunas is an interesting value option. He’s coming off a 23-point, 7-rebound game vs the Magic on Tuesday. He logged 30 minutes against the Nuggets last time around and produced a 30+ FPT performance. The caveat here is the return of Nuggets C Jusuf Nurkic, who, while foul-prone and seeing limited minutes since his injury, is a future monster inside.
The better Rockets big to target is PF Terrence Jones. Most will be off Jones after he ‘burned’ everyone with his dud against the Magic on Tuesday. Jones didn’t start that game but still managed 30 ineffective minutes. After the game it was revealed the non-start was a punishment levied by the team. It looks like it was just a slap on the wrist, so presumably Jones will start at PF like usual. He has monstrous upside against PF Kenneth Faried, who, despite his relentless motor is a big reason the Nuggets are 30th vs opposing PFs this season.
VALUE OFF THE ROCKETS BENCH – COREY BREWER AND JOSH SMITH
Brewer and Smith are in consideration based on their strength in transition and their upside in fast-paced games. Brewer in particular one of the most effective transition finishers in the league. He ranks in the 86th percentile in points-per-possession on Transition plays. Brewer’s recent hot streak also got started in his previous game against the Nuggets, where he had 24 real points off the bench (that was the first in 3 straight 23+ point games for Brewer).
On the other hand, J Smoov should feast on a wimpy Nuggets frontcourt. Despite a recent lull in minutes, Smith played 30 minutes vs the Nuggets last time around, and his style of play should perfectly fit this game. His price has also dipped as a result of the recent limited minutes, which means more profit potential for the stat-stuffing Smith. He’s an interesting tournament play.
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