NBA Advanced Matchups: Tuesday, April 7th
Welcome to the NBA Advanced Matchups, presented by Ohnjz. I’ll be taking you deep into the depths of NBA advanced stats to uncover the top plays in each NBA slate (with four or more games). We’ll consider a broad spectrum of metrics here, including SPORTSVU player and shot tracking, play type data, individual defensive metrics, and my personal favorite, Ohnjz’ bad-jokes-and-snarky-comments-per-article. As always, this work is meant as a guide to help you hone in on what advanced stats would suggest are some of the top plays – but it’s ultimately up to you to decide how to build your lineups.
TARGET THE KINGS/TIMBERWOLVES GAME
WOLVES SG KEVIN MARTIN
Kevin Martin single-handedly ruined the lineups of anyone who swapped him in last Friday when it was announced that he would finally suit up for a game. The Wolves vet was able to log 34 minutes in his return, but hit just 3 of 12 shots for a pitiful 12 points. He predictably added little beyond his scoring (typical Kevin Martin), which left owners with an awfully big hole at SG. Martin has a great shot at redemption tonight vs a Kings squad that rarely keeps any SG’s shot from falling. The Kings allow the MOST FPPG to the SG position, thanks largely to Ben McLemore’s struggles on defense. In two meetings with McLemore and the Kings last season, Martin averaged 28.5 real points per game.
WOLVES PG ZACH LAVINE
While both Zach LaVine and SF Andrew Wiggins are a bit riskier in any games that Kevin Martin plays due to the veteran siphoning away 10+ shots per game, I think LaVine still makes a fine play tonight. The reason, as usual, is the matchup. The Kings and starting PG Ray McCallum have struggled defensively all season, allowing the 5th-most FPPG to opposing PGs. LaVine is one of those ‘score-first’ PGs that plays more like a shooting guard, which means McCallum will have his hands full on defense all night. LaVine derives most of his (HORRIBLY INEFFICIENT) offense from Isolation plays or finishing off the pick-and-roll, two play types that the Kings defend at a bottom-10 level in terms of points-per-possession allowed.
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