NBA Advanced Matchups: Tuesday, March 24th
Welcome to the NBA Advanced Matchups, presented by Ohnjz. I’ll be taking you deep into the depths of NBA advanced stats to uncover the top plays in each NBA slate (with 4 or more games). We’ll consider a broad spectrum of metrics here, including SPORTSVU player and shot tracking, play type data, individual defensive metrics, and my personal favorite, Ohnjz’ bad-jokes-and-snarky-comments-per-article. As always, this work is meant as a guide to help you hone in on what advanced stats would suggest are some of the top plays – but it’s ultimately up to you to decide how to build your lineups.
MINDFULNESS
Before we dig into the Advanced Matchups, we’ll take note of the team and game situations that can impact our decision-making each day
BLOWOUT CONCERNS
•LAKERS VS THUNDER: THUNDER -10.5
• 76ERS VS KINGS: KINGS -8
FATIGUE CONCERNS
• 3 GAMES IN 4 NIGHTS: PISTONS
• B2B AND 4 GAMES IN 5 NIGHTS: WARRIORS
UNDER THE MICROSCOPE
LAKERS PG JEREMY LIN
The latest of Lakers HC Byron Scott’s wacky decisions is to suddenly start Jeremy Lin for the Lakers final 10 games (after leaving him to rot on the bench for most of the season). Lost in Lins ‘struggles’ this season is the fact that he’s still a capable scorer and facilitator. There’s no better example of that then his performance against this Thunder squad (minus Westbrook and plus Ibaka) earlier this month: Lin had 20 points (7-14 FG, 5-6 FT) and 8 assists on his way to a 40+ FPT performance… all in just 32 minutes. This was during a stretch where Lin suddenly was seeing ~30 minutes per game (I like to refer to this span of games as the ‘Good Ole Days’). In that span Lin was regularly cracking double-digit shots which gave him a very nice base of scoring to go along with his assists. This time around, Lin should again be the center of the Lakers offense. Russell Westbrook may be superhuman right now, but not on defense – his effort just isn’t the same on the defensive end, and we’re often seeing opposing PGs put up very solid performances against him. And with no Serge Ibaka on defense, Lin should get to the hoop with ease. If Lin reaches double-digit shots and is also effective getting to the line there’s very little chance he doesn’t reach 18+ real points tonight. With even modest complementary stats he will then easily make value, with the upside for much more.
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