NBA Advanced Matchups: Wednesday, April 15th
Welcome to the NBA Advanced Matchups, presented by Ohnjz. I’ll be taking you deep into the depths of NBA advanced stats to uncover the top plays in each NBA slate (with 4 or more games). We’ll consider a broad spectrum of metrics here, including SPORTSVU player and shot tracking, play type data, individual defensive metrics, and my personal favorite, Ohnjz’ bad-jokes-and-snarky-comments-per-article. As always, this work is meant as a guide to help you hone in on what advanced stats would suggest are some of the top plays – but it’s ultimately up to you to decide how to build your lineups.
UNDER THE MICROSCOPE
THUNDER PG RUSSELL WESTBROOK
Karma is on our side again tonight, friends. On Monday, we got Russell Westbrook in one of the best PG matchups. And today… it might be even better. While we often look to target opposing bigs against the Wolves flimsy frontcourt, the truth is that their entire defense is a sieve. And once an opposing scorer gets past their perimeter defense, it’s nearly a guarantee they’re going to score against this frontcourt, which has the structural integrity of a Jenga tower. Take a look at what some of the other elite scoring PGs have accomplished against the Wolves:
• Steph Curry: 34 points (52.4% FG, 5-11 3PM), 7 assists
• Damian Lillard: 32 points (47.8% FG, 4-8 3PM), 8 assists
• Russell Westbrook: 29 points (45.8% FG, 3-6 3PM), 12 assists
The cream of the PG crop – including Westbrook himself – have had no problem scoring inside and out against this defense. And with the frontcourt being reduced to rubble over the past few weeks, Westbrook’s scoring potential driving to the basket should be greater than ever. Westbrook is in the top-15 in terms of drives per game; that kind of volume plays well against a Wolves defense that allows both the most made field foals and the highest shooting % on attempts within the restricted area. Wolves PG Zach Lavine certainly won’t be keeping Westbrook in check – he ranks in just the 20TH percentile in points-per-possession allowed on pick-and-roll ball-handler plays. The Wolves as a team allow the 4th-most points-per-possession on that play type. The Thunder are an excellent pick-and-roll team thanks to some stone-wall screen setting, and it shows in that Westbrook has scored the 5th-most points in the NBA on pick-and-roll ball-handler plays. However Westbrook wants to score, he should have no problem doing it against Lavine and the Wolves 29th ranked PG defense tonight.
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