NBA Advanced Matchups: Wednesday, March 25th
Welcome to the NBA Advanced Matchups, presented by Ohnjz. I’ll be taking you deep into the depths of NBA advanced stats to uncover the top plays in each NBA slate (with four or more games). We’ll consider a broad spectrum of metrics here, including SPORTSVU player and shot tracking, play type data, individual defensive metrics, and my personal favorite, Ohnjz’ bad-jokes-and-snarky-comments-per-article. As always, this work is meant as a guide to help you hone in on what advanced stats would suggest are some of the top plays – but it’s ultimately up to you to decide how to build your lineups.
MINDFULNESS
Before we dig into the Advanced Matchups, we’ll take note of the team and game situations that can impact our decision-making each day
Blowout Concerns
• Clippers at Knicks: Clippers -14.5
• 76ers at Nuggets: Nuggets -11
• Hawks at Magic: Hawks -8.5
• Thunder at Spurs: Spurs -8
• Kings at Suns: Suns -8
Fatigue Concerns
• Back To Back: Blazers
• 3 Games In 4 Nights: Celtics, Hornets, Wolves, Knicks, Wizards
• B2B And 3 Games In 4 Nights: Lakers, Heat, Thunder, Sixers, Kings, Spurs, Raptors
TARGET THE WOLVES/LAKERS GAME
NBA purists will hate this game, but military buffs might want to tune into tonight’s tank battle between the Wolves and Lakers. Both teams are actively trimming their rosters down to mostly just youngsters at this point. I’ve talked at length about the Wolves situation, and it doesn’t appear that veterans like KG and Nikola Pekovic will play another game this season. The Lakers’ situation has also taken an interesting turn in the past few days. I talked about Jeremy Lin and Ryan Kelly getting starter’s roles yesterday (more on them in a second), but now both Carlos Boozer and Jeremy Hill are reportedly unlikely to play for several games, so that the Lakers can evaluate their younger players. That means shorter rotations in the frontcourt and more value for the survivors. With these situations in mind, let’s take a look at the value each team presents us with tonight:
LAKERS PG JEREMY LIN
I talked about Lin in yesterday’s AMP, and everything I wrote then still applies to Lin today:
”The latest of Lakers HC Byron Scott’s wacky decisions is to suddenly start Jeremy Lin for the Lakers final 10 games (after leaving him to rot on the bench for most of the season). Lost in Lins ‘struggles’ this season is the fact that he’s still a capable scorer and facilitator. There’s no better example of that then his performance against this Thunder squad (minus Westbrook and plus Ibaka) earlier this month: Lin had 20 points (7-14 FG, 5-6 FT) and 8 assists on his way to a 40+ FPT performance… all in just 32 minutes. This was during a stretch where Lin suddenly was seeing ~30 minutes per game (I like to refer to this span of games as the ‘Good Ole Days’). In that span, Lin was regularly cracking double-digit shots which gave him a very nice base of scoring to go along with his assists. This time around, Lin should again be the center of the Lakers offense… If Lin reaches double-digit shots and is also effective getting to the line there’s very little chance he doesn’t reach 18+ real points tonight. With even modest complementary stats he will then easily make value, with the upside for much more.”
Adding to Lin’s potential tonight is the abysmal Timberwolves’ defense. The Wolves have struggled vs PGs all season (29th in PG DVP) and have been no better since their tanking efforts began (29th in PG DVP over the last three weeks). They also struggle mightily defending the pick-and-roll ball-handler (fourth most points-per-possession allowed), which is the play type that Lin derives most of his offense from. Despite a backup role for most of the season, Lin is in the top-30 in PNR ball-handler plays finished. With Ricky Rubio doubtful to play tonight, Lin will mostly match up with rookie PG Zach LaVine. LaVine still has no clue how to play defense in this league, giving Lin a massive opportunity on offense tonight.
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