NBA Betting Picks: What Zig-Zag Theory & Fading the Public Means for Celtics-Sixers, Mavs-Clippers
The NBA Playoffs are in full swing with four games a day, starting around noon and lasting late into the night. Needless to say, basketball enthusiasts, sports bettors and the NBA DFS community are loving the action. The NBA is one of the toughest sports to bet on, especially during the regular season with varying effort levels. But with the unique situation provided by the NBA bubble, there is an opportunity to find an edge and develop a profitable betting strategy. Friday’s slate presents us with four great spots to take advantage of some trends that have been developing over the past few days.
Before we get into it, I just need to point out that you’re crazy if you’re not betting on Jose Abreu to hit a home run at +360 tonight, but I digress. Let’s talk basketball.
2020 NBA Playoff Betting Odds for Today
NBA Playoff Zig-Zag Betting Theory
If you’re not familiar with NBA zig-zag theory, it’s a pretty simple betting strategy in which you just bet against whichever team covered the spread in the previous game in the series. For example, since the Nets covered the 11.5-point spread against the Raptors on Wednesday, Zig-Zag Theory would suggest you should take the Raptors -11 today.
The thinking there is two-fold. The first argument is that whichever team underperformed in the previous game will come out more motivated in the upcoming game. I don’t know if I buy that line of thinking. It’s the NBA playoffs. Every team wants to win every game. Regarless of what happened the game before, motivation isn’t much of a problem for these teams.
The second argument for zig-zag theory is that there is a fair amount of recency bias in the NBA Playoffs so you may get an advantageous line because people have short term memories and are susceptible to recency bias. If you watched the Nets hang around and only lose by five points to the Raptors on Wednesday, you might think that this means the teams are evenly matched and that 11 points is too many.
The reality is that there is so much variance in the NBA that you can’t draw conclusions from any one game. Chances are that the oddsmakers got the spread right the first time, but the public’s recency bias may lower the line and give us an edge by backing the team who underperformed most recently. Bettors picked up on that edge coming into Game 3. The Raptors opened as 8.5-point favorites but that line quickly moved to 11. So I’d say we missed our chance in this one.
Zig Zag Theory Performance
Zig-zag theory went 5-3 against the spread in the eight Game 2s this year, so you could argue that it’s working so far. Though a small sample size, it’s certainly something to keep an eye on moving forward.
Friday’s Zig Zag Theory Picks: Clippers -5 vs. Mavs
The Clippers were 6.5 point favorites in Game 1 and 5 point favorites in Game 2. The Mavs won pretty handily (127-114) on Wednesday night, but does that mean they’re suddenly a better team than they were before? I don’t think so. People were all over the Blazers after they knocked off the Lakers in Game 1 and then they got pummeled last night to remind us all how good the Lakers are. I think this game winds up being pretty similar. I’ve got the Clippers by 20.
Fading the Public When Betting the NBA Playoffs
The other betting strategy I’ll be employing over the remainder of the NBA Playoffs is simply fading the public and following the sharp money. Over the first four days of the playoffs, teams & totals with less than 45% of the public backing them are 14-11, for a profitable 56% winning percentage. As sports betting is more widely legalized across the United Staes, the edge gained from fading the public should increase. I expect this strategy to stay profitable for the rest of the playoffs (and hopefully the rest of my life).
Of course, fading the public and trying to follow the sharp money is easier said than done. Oddsmakers quickly adjust and the betting market during the NBA playoffs quite fluid.
Friday’s Fading the Public Pick: Sixers +6 vs. Celtics
It pains me to do this because I am a Boston Celtics fan and I absolutely love the way they’ve looked to start this series, but this has ‘let-down spot’ written all over it. 84 percent of bettors are backing the Celtics as 6 point favorites, according to ScoresAndOdds. There have been times this series where the Sixers have looked capable of keeping with the Celtics despite missing Ben Simmons. After their first two games, the public is giving up on them, which is probably a mistake and an overreaction, again, due to recency bias. I expect Joel Embiid and the Sixers to come out strong and make enough shots to cover this public-influenced 6-point spread.
Parlay these two plays with Jose Abreu hitting a home run for a nice little +1577 payout and thank me later.
For more general NBA betting tips, check out our NBA guide.
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images