NBA Betting Picks for Wednesday, December 11th: Grizzlies at Suns
The Phoenix Suns opened as 9-point home favorites against the Memphis Grizzlies and the line has moved to -7 at online sports betting sites. The total opened at 231 and has stayed stead as of noon on Wednesday. Here’s a look at NBA odds and NBA betting tips for today, Wednesday, December 4th, 2019.
NBA Betting Picks for Wednesday, December 11: Grizzlies at Suns
- Spread: Memphis Grizzlies +7
- Spread: Phoenix Suns -7
- Total: Over/Under 231
66% of bets are on Phoenix and 90% of bets are on the Under as of noon on Wednesday, per VegasInsider.com.
At the beginning of the season, no one really expected much out of either of these teams. Both teams had been near the bottom of the Western Conference for years and neither organization has done much to improve. To Suns fans’ pleasant surprise, Phoenix has drastically exceeded expectations this season so far.
The Suns currently sit 8th in the Western Conference with a record of 11-12, and if the season ended today, the Suns would be in the playoffs. The Suns have been involved in some high scoring affairs as they currently sit at 8th in the league in terms of pace while ranking 6th in offensive efficiency and 18th in defensive efficiency. They have struggled through some injuries, but they enter Wednesday at nearly full strength and have won three of their last five games. While the Suns have been one of the best teams at covering the spread this season with a 14-9 ATS record, they have only been slightly above average at home going 7-6 ATS. However, the Suns have been fantastic at covering the over in home games this season, going 10-3 ATS compared to just 4-6 on the road.
Unlike the Suns, the Grizzlies have pretty much met their expectations this year as they currently sit 13th in the Western Conference with a record of 7-16. That record puts them four games away from the final spot of the playoffs. In the past, they have run at a slow pace and played good defense, however, they have morphed into an entirely different team this year. After getting rid of Gasol and Conley in ht offseason and adding a whole bunch of young pieces to the offense, they have gone from one of the slowest paced teams in the league to one of the fastest. The Grizzlies are currently 7th in terms of pace while ranking 25th in offensive efficiency and 22nd in defensive efficiency. Although the Grizzlies seem to be winning at a rate we would have expected, they have not been a good team to bet on this season. Memphis bettors are 4-6 ATS on the road and 9-14 ATS overall.
NBA Betting Picks: The Over 231 (-110) & Memphis +7 (-110)
While this is a very high total, I don’t think it’s high enough. As stated earlier, neither of these teams is an above-average defensive team and both run at a top 8 pace this season. The Suns have been covering the over at the highest rate in the league at home this season and although over 70% of the bets coming in on the total have been on the under, the point total for this game hasn’t moved. I think that this game is going to be a close, high scoring affair.
Risking 1 unit to win .91 units on Over 231.
Risking 1 unit to win .91 units on Memphis +7.
NBA 2019-2020 Betting Record: 4-1 (+2.68 units)
NBA Betting Picks for Today — Player Props
Jonas Valanciunas Over 9.5 Rebounds – Looking at Valanciunas’ numbers, you’ll find his production is almost entirely dependant on how many minutes he gets. While at the beggining of the season he was consistently seeing the floor in the low 20s, his minutes have recently been trending upward. In his last five games he has gotten over 27 minutes in four games; the lone game where he didn’t was a blowout against the Jazz. Valancuinas has 10+ boards in five of his last six games and draws a matchup against the Suns where he should feast in a high-paced environment.
Monkey Knife Fight Plays — NBA Player Props
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Here are my favorite Monkey Knife Fights props for the Grizzlies at Suns:
Jonas Valanciunas +6.5 vs Devin Booker – Total Fanatsy Points
Ricky Rubio -.5 vs Kelly Oubre – Total Fantasy Points