NBA Betting Picks for Wednesday, November 20: Spurs at Wizards
The San Antonio Spurs opened as 3-point road favorites against the Washington Wizards and the line has moved to -2 at sports betting sites. The total opened at 239.5 before falling to 237.5 by noon on Wednesday. Here’s a look at NBA odds and NBA betting tips for today, Wednesday, November 20, 2019.
NBA Betting Picks for Wednesday, November 20: Spurs at Wizards
- Spread:Washington Wizards +2
- Spread: San Antonio Spurs -2
- Total: Over/Under 237.5
65% of bets are on San Antonio and 90% of bets are on the Over as of 1pm ET, per Vegasinsider.
The Wizards have been one of the worst teams in the league this season, sitting in the basement of the Eastern Conference with a record of 3-8. The Spurs have been a below-average team so far, winning only five of their first 14 games. The Wizards have one of the fastest-paced offenses and worst defenses in the NBA, ranking 6th and 29th respectively and ranking 3rd in offensive ratings. The Spurs, on the other hand, rank 17th in pace, 5th in offensive rating and 27th in defensive rating.
Looking at the overall numbers, it would appear that the Spurs are the better team, but if you dive in a little deeper you find they have drastic home-road splits. Last season, the Spurs were 21-23-1 ATS and 16-25 straight up on the road compared to 26-18 ATS and 32-9 straight up at home. This season, they have been downright terrible at covering the spread when at home and on the road. They currently sit 3-11 ATS which ranks dead last in the NBA. They’ve certainly underachieved so far, but I still expect to be in the playoffs by the end of the season.
The Wizards, unlike the Spurs, have been horrible overall, but have been fantastic so for bettors, going 7-3-1 ATS. They may not be a great defensive team, but they have been good enough on the offensive end to keep games close and cover the spread.
Looking at the total for this game, it’s hard to imagine a game covering a 237.5 total, but the Wizards and Spurs have been so bad on the defensive end and so good on the offensive end that this total seems justified. The Spurs have covered the Over in 10 of their 14 games so far this season, while Wizards games have gone Over at a 6-4-1 clip. While the Spurs may play at a slow pace, there is going to be a whole lot of points scored in this game.
My NBA Betting Pick: Washington Wizards +2 (-105)
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Without looking at home-road splits, I know it’s tough to justify a bet on the Wizards. But San Antonio is such a bad team on the road that it makes backing the home underdog quite tempting. Both teams are roughly the same in terms of offensive and defensive rating, and the only real difference between the two teams are pace and coaching. Sure, Gregg Popovich is the far superior coach and the Spurs are a better overall team, but I don’t think they end covering in that nation’s capital tonight. In fact, I think the Wizards squeak out a victory.
NBA 2019-20 Betting Record: 2-0 (+1.82 units)
NBA Betting Picks for Today — Player Props
LaMarcus Aldridge: Over 19.5 Points – Aldridge has been very hit or miss overall this season, but I think he finds his groove tonight. A matchup against the Wizards is a spot where he can absolutely crush. He has already put up 27 points against this team earlier in the season and has played well in fast-paced matchups. I think he ends this game with 25-30 points here, crushing this prop.
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Here are my favorite Monkey Knife Fights props for the Spurs at Wizards:
LaMarcus Aldridge: Over 37.5 Fantasy Points
Thomas Bryant: Under 34.5 Fantasy Points
Also check out Wednesday’s video for more Monkey Knife Fight plays.
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images