NBA DFS Core Plays LIVE: Tuesday, January 31st

Andy Means (meansy53), a former Duke basketball walk-on, will be bringing Premium subscribers his top NBA DFS plays to build around on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays. Everyone’s favorite, Notorious, will be guiding you on Tuesdays and Thursdays. And on weekends, the GPP maestro you all know and love, STLCards, takes the reins.

GENERAL SLATE THOUGHTS

10:30 AM ET: Happy Tuesday, my friends. The month of January flew by. We are officially less than two weeks away from the Super Bowl and less than three weeks away from the NBA All-Star game. Last night’s slate taught us the importance of keeping flexibility open in lineups. I had what I thought was a very good lineup on DraftKings. Unfortunately, when Trae Young got ruled out, I didn’t have an option to play Dejounte Murray. The field was sharp enough to plan ahead and his 60+ fantasy points just pushed my main lineup out of the cash line. While I tried to be flexible for injuries, I focused most of my attention on Luka Doncic.

We live and we learn.

We now gear up for tonight’s five-game slate. We only have one team playing in the second half of a back-to-back, which is the Lakers. Although, both of their superstars sat out last night’s game, so this might not be as bad of a spot as usual for a team playing two road games in two nights. Let’s do a quick team-by-team overview and then cover the injury landscape for tonight’s slate.

Miami The Heat have been playing their best basketball of the season, winning seven of their last 10 games. They’ve been healthy recently, but that’s not the case tonight. Jimmy Butler and Gabe Vincent are both listed as questionable, while Nikola Jovic and Duncan Robinson have already been ruled out. They have a tough draw on the road against the Cavaliers, who are ranked 30th in pace and first in defensive rating.

It’s good to plan ahead, so let’s take a look at the per-minute CourtIQ for the Heat with Butler off the floor:

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Cleveland The Cavaliers have only won five of their last 10 games and have dropped down the standings, but still have the second best point differential in the Eastern Conference. Tonight’s game against the Heat should be slow-paced and it features two elite defenses. It’s certainly not the ideal game environment for fantasy production. The Cavaliers are essentially at full strength, which makes them even less appealing given how many teams are currently short-handed.

LA Lakers The LeBron and AD-less Lakers put up a decent fight against the Nets last night, but ultimately fell short in Brooklyn. The team has a quick turn-around, but they didn’t have to travel and they are hoping to have Anthony Davis (probable) and LeBron James (Questionable) back for this one. You know LeBron isn’t going to miss his one chance all season to play in Madison Square Garden. As far as the matchup goes, the Knicks are ranked 27th in pace and 16th in defensive rating.

New York The Knicks are an easy team to root for because they are very relatable. We typically see the best and the worst of them over the course of each game. They are looking to climb up the Eastern Conference standings, but seem destined for a .500 record. They’ll be at full strength for tonight’s game against the Lakers, who have been one of the best matchups for fantasy production this season.

Charlotte The Hornets have won two games in a row and now have a better record than three teams in the NBA. It’s not much, but it’s progress. They will still be without Kelly Oubre and Cody Martin tonight, but everyone else should be active. This team will have its hands full, as the Bucks are 11-point home favorites. It doesn’t help that Milwaukee is ranked third in defensive rating and second in rebounding rate this season. The only positive is that this should be a fast-paced game.

Milwaukee The Bucks are back. They are healthy and have won four games in a row. They should be able to extend their winning streak tonight. They are 20-5 at home and facing a Hornets team that only has 15 wins on the season. From a DFS standpoint, there are few better matchups than this one. The Hornets are ranked seventh in pace and 27th in defensive rating. The Bucks’ implied total is a whopping 13.4 points above their season average.

*LA Clippers I always find it interesting when a team has scored the exact amount of points as their opponents and that’s been the case for the Clippers this season. It’s been up and down, but they are currently three games above .500. They have played well on the road (14-14) and should have all of their big names in the lineup tonight. We do need to monitor the availability of Reggie Jackson, Robert Covington, and Marcus Morris. A matchup against the Bulls isn’t particularly good or bad, as Chicago is ranked 13th in both pace and defensive rating.

Chicago The Bulls are much like the Clippers in they have both scored the exact amount of points as their opponents this season. What are the odds of that happening? Unless this game is declared a tie, that won’t be the case for either team after tonight. The Bulls are healthy, but this matchup is far from ideal. On the season, Los Angeles is ranked 25th in pace and 11th in defensive rating. Those numbers get even better if you take out the games that Paul George and Kawhi Leonard have missed.

New Orleans It’s hard to believe, but the Pelicans have lost eight games in a row. They are really feeling the absence of Zion Williamson. If they are unable to end the losing streak tonight, they’ll officially be back to .500 on the season. Brandon Ingram and C.J. McCollum will be back for this one, but Zion and Dyson Daniels have already been ruled out. The Pelicans are 6.5-point road underdogs against a Nuggets team that is a mediocre matchup for fantasy production.

Denver The Nuggets have lost three of their last four games, but still own the best record in the Western Conference. They’ve been close to unbeatable at home (22-4) and get to face a struggling Pelicans team. This isn’t a great matchup on paper, but New Orleans is 17th in defensive rating over the last 10 games. The big question mark here is the availability of Jamal Murray.

Here’s the “per-minute CourtIQ for the Nuggets with Murray off the floor:”:

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Out:

Nikola Jovic
Duncan Robinson
Austin Reaves
Javonte Green
John Wall
Cody Martin
Kelly Oubre
Serge Ibaka
Bobby Portis
Zion Williamson
Dyson Daniels

Questionable:

Jimmy Butler
Gabe Vincent
LeBron James
Marcus Morris
Robert Covington
Reggie Jackson
Jamal Murray

That’ll do it for now. If you have any random life subjects we can talk about leading up to lock, fire away in the comments.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious