NBA DFS Expert Survey: Monday, December 5th

Want to know who we are paying up for in NBA DFS today? Wondering which value play we are eyeing most? You’re in luck. Our daily fantasy sports experts will answer a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions for tonight’s contests.

Who is your favorite player to spend up for in optimal lineups?

meansy53: Terry Rozier (FD) / Trae Young (DK)

Notorious: Trae Young

MrTuttle05: Trae Young

stevietpfl: Clint Capela

squirrelpatrol: Clint Capela

Who is your favorite player to spend up for in large-field tournaments?

meansy53: Trae Young

Notorious: Luka Doncic

MrTuttle05: Joel Embiid

stevietpfl: James Harden

squirrelpatrol: Luka Doncic

Who is your favorite salary relief play in optimal lineups?

meansy53: Tyus Jones

Notorious: Tyus Jones

MrTuttle05: Tyus Jones

stevietpfl: Tyus Jones

squirrelpatrol: Dillon Brooks (FD) / Tyus Jones (DK)

Who is your favorite salary relief play in large-field tournaments?

meansy53: Klay Thompson

Notorious: Jalen Johnson

MrTuttle05: Brandon Clarke

stevietpfl: Klay Thompson

squirrelpatrol: Jalen Johnson

Who will be the biggest bust relative to salary?

meansy53: OG Anunoby (FD) / Khris Middleton (DK)

Notorious: Kyle Lowry (FD) / Khris Middleton (DK)

MrTuttle05: Kevin Porter Jr. (FD) / Khris Middleton (DK)

stevietpfl: Giannis Antetokounmpo

squirrelpatrol: Dejounte Murray

Who are you most afraid of being underweight on compared to the field?

meansy53: Joel Embiid

Notorious: Joel Embiid

MrTuttle05: Devin Booker

stevietpfl: Luka Doncic

squirrelpatrol: Giannis Antetokounmpo

Who do you believe you’ll be most overweight on compared to the field?

meansy53: Klay Thompson

Notorious: Andrew Nembhard

MrTuttle05: Joel Embiid

stevietpfl: Klay Thompson

squirrelpatrol: Jalen Johnson

Which team are you targeting players from the most?

meansy53: MEM

Notorious: IND & MEM

MrTuttle05: IND & MEM

stevietpfl: IND

squirrelpatrol: MEM

Which team are you looking to avoid most?

meansy53: LAC

Notorious: ORL

MrTuttle05: LAC

stevietpfl: ORL

squirrelpatrol: ORL

Which useful trend or statistic stuck out most during your research?

meansy53: Tyrese Haliburton missed his first game of the season last night and is out again tonight. In last night’s game, here are the underlying rates and minutes for some of the main beneficiaries of Hali’s absence. Remember, TJ McConnell (status for tonight uncertain) did not play either.

Buddy Hield: 38 minutes, 23.5% usage rate, 12% assist rate, 16.2% rebound rate, 60% TS%, 1.16 FD / 1.24 DK

Andrew Nembhard: 37 minutes, 16.9% usage rate, 32% assist rate, 8.2% rebound rate, 66.7% TS%, 0.94 FD / 0.99 DK

Bennedict Mathurin: 32 minutes, 20.9% usage rate, 5% assist rate, 4.8% rebound rate, 33.3% TS%, 0.62 FD / 0.58 DK

Myles Turner: 28 minutes, 32.4% usage rate, 13.3% assist rate, 16.4% rebound rate, 68.8% TS%, 1.20 FD / 1.34 DK

Notorious: I plan to eat the chalk with Andrew Nembhard and T.J. McConnell (if active), but I plan to fade the veterans on this team. Myles Turner and Buddy Hield will certainly garner ownership, but there’s a good chance this game turns into a blowout. Indiana’s net rating without Tyrese Haliburton on the floor is ugly and the Warriors are 11-1 at home with a net rating of +10.8.

MrTuttle05: The Grizzlies have opted to sit Ja Morant, John Konchar, and Jaren Jackson Jr. on the second leg of a back-to-back. They’ll also be without Desmond Bane, Jak LaRavia, Ziaire Williams, and Danny Green. That leaves them with 10 available players for Monday’s game: Tyus Jones, Dillon Brooks, David Roddy, Santi Aldama, Steven Adams, Brandon Clarke, Xavier Tillman, Kennedy Chandler, Kenneth Lofton, and Vince Williams.

stevietpfl: The Atlanta Hawks allow the third-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing point guards. They also allow the fourth most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards. Murray effect is real.

squirrelpatrol: OKC and Indiana have given up the 3rd and 5th most points per game to opponents this season respectively, and over each team’s last 8 games they have been even worse, with OKC giving up the 2nd-most points in the league and Indiana surrendering the 4th-most.

Who is your top overall play (when considering price, matchup, roster construction, etc.) on the board and why?

meansy53: Tyus Jones – With a bunch of Grizzlies players ruled out, I will roll with Tyus here. In the three games this season that Ja Morant has missed, Tyus is averaging 35 fantasy points per game. And Desmond Bane (who is still out) was available for one of those games. At $5,200 FD / $4,300 DK, Tyus is just flat-out far too cheap for his role on this team without their two offensive engines.

Notorious: Trae Young – These numbers are hard to believe, but I don’t think CourtIQ is lying to us. In 132 minutes with De’Andre Hunter and John Collins off the floor this season, Young has averaged 1.77 DK / 1.68 FD points per minute with a usage rate of 49%. Now, I don’t think those rates are sustainable, but they are certainly noteworthy. I like Young in a pace-up matchup against the Thunder.

MrTuttle05: Tyus Jones – With the Grizz short-handed Tyus Jones is now looking at huge minutes and increased offensive responsibility. Jones isn’t typically a high-usage player but out of necessity will be forced to be more aggressive with Dillon Brooks the only remaining high-usage player in the Grizzlies’ projected starting lineup.

stevietpfl: Clint Capela – I think there is a lot of opportunity cost at guard tonight, so I’m looking to find a strong mid-range center option. Capela is in a fantastic spot against the Thunder tonight. They’re the worst rebounding team against big men, and they allow the fourth most fantasy points per game to opposing centers. Capela is averaging 1.23 fantasy points per minute with John Collins off the floor this season.

squirrelpatrol: Dillon Brooks (FD) / Tyus Jones (DK) – Memphis has a number of players who could smash with Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson, and John Konchar (among others) all sitting, but it’s important to pay attention to the price discrepancies across sites. Tyus Jones is a screaming value on DK where he is only $4300, but on FD he is “just” an excellent value at $5200. Dillon Brooks sticks out at only $5900 on FD, but is “just” excellent priced up to $6200 on DK.

Who is your top contrarian play (when considering price, matchup, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?

meansy53: Klay Thompson – I already like what I initially see in LineupHQ for Klay as a standalone play, which is a price tag of $5,900 on both sites, a ceiling projection of around 45 FPTS, and pOWN% in the 18-20% range depending on site (which hopefully comes down as the day moves along). But what I like most here is that two guys who he competes with for shots, Andrew Wiggins & Jordan Poole, are listed as questionable. And this IND/GS game starts 90 minutes after all other games will have tipped off. In an ideal world, those two guys carry Q tags all day and aren’t ruled out until all other games have started. But even if one or neither of them gets ruled out, Klay still looks good in a vacuum (as I noted off the top). So it’s not like you are stuck with a bad play if the news doesn’t work in your favor.

Notorious: Luka Doncic – Anytime we can target Luka at low ownership, we should be interested. We currently have him at sub-20% on FanDuel and sub-10% on DraftKings. The Mavericks go as Luka goes and they are 2.5-point favorites at home against the Suns. The market is giving the Mavericks a lot of respect here and we know Luka is capable of a slate-breaking performance every time he takes the floor. The price seems prohibitive on paper, but the Pacers and Grizzlies have provided us with a ton of value on this slate.

MrTuttle05: Joel EmbiidJames Harden expected return should keep Embiid’s ownership suppressed quite a bit despite a matchup with one of the worst defensive teams in the league. There’s no doubt that Harden’s return lowers Embiid’s usage expectations but it seems likely that Harden will be eased back in – both in terms of minutes and offensive aggressiveness – after a 14-game absence. Embiid’s ceiling remains one of the highest on the slate and is currently projected to see his ownership settle in at the low teens on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

stevietpfl: Klay Thompson – The Warriors game is a stand-alone game, and I hope we don’t get a lot of news before those 8:30 games kick off. Either way, I think Thompson is in a great spot against the Pacers tonight. As much as I like Curry, Thompson’s discount is too high to ignore, and it helps fit other studs in on this slate. With the Memphis news, I’m hoping Thompson’s ownership stays down.

squirrelpatrol: Jalen Johnson – I’m hoping the injury/rest situations in Memphis and Indiana overshadow the fact that Jalen Johnson made his first start over the weekend and put up 10 points, 10 rebounds, and 4 assists. John Collins and Deandre Hunter are still out for Atlanta, meaning there should be minutes for Johnson to excel against an OKC defense that gives up the 3rd-most points in the NBA.

What is your hot take of the day?

meansy53: Trae Young puts up 60+ DK points.

Notorious: I can’t let Meansy steal my thunder here. Trae Young posts 61+ fantasy points.

MrTuttle05: Joel Embiid posts a 70+ fantasy point triple-double.

stevietpfl: Josh Giddey goes for a new career high of 30+ actual points.

squirrelpatrol: Clint Capela goes for a 20-points, 20-rebound game against the Thunder.

NOTE: Our analysts do their best to update their answers as news comes out throughout the day. For the most up-to-date picks and projections as lineup lock approaches, be sure to head to LineupHQ.

Image Credit: Imagn

Want to know who we are paying up for in NBA DFS today? Wondering which value play we are eyeing most? You’re in luck. Our daily fantasy sports experts will answer a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions for tonight’s contests.

Who is your favorite player to spend up for in optimal lineups?

meansy53: Terry Rozier (FD) / James Harden (DK)

Notorious: Trae Young

MrTuttle05: Trae Young

stevietpfl: Clint Capela

squirrelpatrol: Clint Capela

Who is your favorite player to spend up for in large-field tournaments?

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About the Author

  • John Britt (jmbwngfn)

  • One of the top baseball and hockey analysts in the DFS industry, John Britt is a family man hailing from St. Louis, Missouri. A proud graduate of the University of Missouri, John’s passion is hockey but he excels at multiple DFS sports. He has been nominated multiple times for awards for his written work in both baseball (best MLB series) and hockey (3x NHL Writer of the Year nominee) and is now the Lead Editor at RotoGrinders. John can be found on Twitter at the username JMBWngFn.

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