NBA DFS Expert Survey: Saturday, March 18th

Want to know who we are paying up for in NBA DFS today? Wondering which value play we are eyeing most? You’re in luck. Our daily fantasy sports experts will answer a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions for tonight’s contests.

Who is your favorite player to spend up for in optimal lineups?

STLCardinals84: Desmond Bane

tcsmith031: Jaren Jackson

TastefulTides: Desmond Bane

TJ Zwarych: Desmond Bane

Who is your favorite player to spend up for in large-field tournaments?

STLCardinals84: Jayson Tatum

tcsmith031: Joel Embiid

TastefulTides: Joel Embiid

TJ Zwarych: Joel Embiid

Who is your favorite salary relief play in optimal lineups?

STLCardinals84: Nickeil Alexander-Walker

tcsmith031: Malik Monk

TastefulTides: Nickeil Alexander-Walker

TJ Zwarych: Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Who is your favorite salary relief play in large-field tournaments?

STLCardinals84: Taurean Prince

tcsmith031: Kelly Olynyk

TastefulTides: De’Anthony Melton

TJ Zwarych: Taurean Prince

Who will be the biggest bust relative to salary?

STLCardinals84: Stephen Curry

tcsmith031: Walker Kessler (FD) / Andrew Nembhard (DK)

TastefulTides: Jordan Clarkson

TJ Zwarych: Nikola Vucevic

Who are you most afraid of being underweight on compared to the field?

STLCardinals84: Jimmy Butler

tcsmith031: Jayson Tatum

TastefulTides: Jayson Tatum

TJ Zwarych: James Harden

Who do you believe you’ll be most overweight on compared to the field?

STLCardinals84: Jayson Tatum

tcsmith031: T.J. McConnell

TastefulTides: Joel Embiid

TJ Zwarych: T.J. McConnell

Which team are you targeting players from the most?

STLCardinals84: MIN (if Edwards out) / otherwise MEM

tcsmith031: MEM/SAC

TastefulTides: PHI

TJ Zwarych: MIN

Which team are you looking to avoid most?

STLCardinals84: UTA

tcsmith031: UTA

TastefulTides: UTA

TJ Zwarych: UTA

Which useful trend or statistic stuck out most during your research?

STLCardinals84: This slate could give us some shenanigans as we get closer to lock. Two teams that play tonight (MIN and CHI) played a double overtime game last night, and Memphis went to overtime as well. We have three other teams that are on the second leg of a B2B set. Get ready for a wild pre-lock ride.

tcsmith031: We know Joel Embiid (38%) is a usage monster, but he should also feast on the glass tonight against the Pacers. Indiana ranks a dismal 28th in the league in total rebound rate, while they’re dead-last in defensive rebound rate.

TastefulTides: The Philadelphia 76ers rank 6th in defensive rating overall for the season. However, in the last ten games, they rank all the way down to 17th. Philly’s offensive rating was one of the best in the league, ranking third for the season and first overall in their last ten games.

TJ Zwarych: Tyus Jones, Desmond Bane and the rest of the Grizzlies tonight are one of the chalkiest teams on the board. However, the only Warriors who are projecting with double-digit ownership are Draymond Green and Kevon Looney.

Who is your top overall play (when considering price, matchup, roster construction, etc.) on the board and why?

STLCardinals84: Desmond Bane – Embiid is the obvious choice as the highest projected point scorer on the board, but he also takes up your center spot and is the most expensive player. On a points per dollar basis, I’ll opt for Bane, who has a healthy 28% usage rate and scores around 1.25 fantasy points per minute with Morant off the floor. Memphis is projected for 117 points tonight, and their game against the Warriors has a one point spread.

tcsmith031: Joel Embiid – It looks like we’ll have plenty of value tonight, so why not pay all the way up for the best play on the board? Nobody else on the slate comes close to matching Embiid’s per-minute prowess (1.63), and tonight’s matchup is terrific. He also had to play just 29 minutes in last night’s blowout win over Charlotte, so his legs should be fresh despite the back-to-back.

TastefulTides: Joel Embiid – If the Hornets were able to keep last night’s game competitive, we would have seen a massive game from Embiid. It’s a similar matchup for him today, going up against a bottom third defense that plays at a top ten pace. He is going to come with heavier ownership, but I think he is an extremely risky fade even in large field tournaments.

TJ Zwarych: Joel Embiid – Although you can pick and choose a Memphis player here like Tyus Jones or Desmond Bane, we have the value tonight to prioritize Embiid. He’s been on an absolute tear recently, and players like NAW and Prince allow us to reach Embiid’s price tag relatively easily.

Who is your top contrarian play (when considering price, matchup, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?

STLCardinals84: Jayson Tatum – Most people will look to spend up for Embiid in GPP formats tonight, and I think the ownership gap between Embid and Tatum will actually be larger than our early ownership projections suggest. This is the last game of the night, and some might be scared away with Boston playing for the second night in a row. Tatum put up a 60 spot last night despite 2-for-11 shooting from deep, and I like the way he matches up against Utah.

tcsmith031: Draymond Green – We’ll probably be playing a lot of Grizzlies again tonight, as the Warriors play their second game in as many nights. Draymond should be fresh after missing last night’s contest due to suspension, however. A high-total game with a tight spread should suit Green’s skill set quite nicely, and he’s a little more affordable tonight than he’s been on other recent slates.

TastefulTides: Jimmy Butler – He hasn’t flashed a massive ceiling, but he has been very solid over the last couple of weeks, and I think he is worthy of a look in tournaments. He is at a similar price point to some of the Memphis chalky pieces, so pivoting to Butler is an interesting place to get leverage on this shorter slate.

TJ Zwarych: Klay Thompson – While loading up on Grizzlies, I love Klay as a run back in a game with the highest total on the board and a 1.5 spread. These teams don’t like each other, and we know Golden State doesn’t play any defense on the road. Golden State is going to have to score the ball to keep this close, and Klay’s price inexplicably keeps dropping despite him playing well.

What is your hot take of the day?

STLCardinals84: Jayson Tatum scores 77 fantasy points.

tcsmith031: Malik Monk puts 35 real points on the board.

TastefulTides: Jimmy Butler goes for over 60 fantasy points.

TJ Zwarych: T.J. McConnell puts up 45 fantasy points against his former team.

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NOTE: Our analysts do their best to update their answers as news comes out throughout the day. For the most up-to-date picks and projections as lineup lock approaches, be sure to head to LineupHQ.

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