NBA DFS Expert Survey: Thursday, June 16th - NBA Finals Game 6

Want to know who we are paying up for in NBA DFS today? Wondering which value play we are eyeing most? You’re in luck. Our daily fantasy sports experts will answer a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions for tonight’s contests.

NBA Expert Survey – NBA Finals: Game 6

Who is your favorite Captain/MVP for optimal lineups?

meansy53: Jayson Tatum

Notorious: Jayson Tatum (FD) / Marcus Smart (DK)

MrTuttle: Jayson Tatum

Who is your favorite Captain/MVP for large-field contests?

meansy53: Jaylen Brown

Notorious: Stephen Curry (FD) / Robert Williams (DK)

MrTuttle: Jaylen Brown

Who is your favorite salary relief play in optimal lineups?

meansy53: Robert Williams (FD) / Gary Payton (DK)

Notorious: Robert Williams

MrTuttle: Draymond Green

Who is your favorite salary relief play in large-field contests?

meansy53: Kevon Looney

Notorious: Kevon Looney

MrTuttle: Derrick White

Who will be the biggest bust of the day relative to price?

meansy53: Grant Williams (FD) / Otto Porter (DK)

Notorious: Grant Williams

MrTuttle: Grant Williams

Predict the final score of the game.

meansy53: BOS 111 – GS 102

Notorious: BOS 108 – GS 101

MrTuttle: BOS 108 – GSW 99

Which useful trend or statistic stuck out most during your research?

meansy53: In Game 5, the Celtics had a 13.0 Net Rating (i.e., they outscored Golden State by 13 points per-100 possessions) in the 30 minutes that Robert Williams played. The next best Net Rating among the other six regulars? The -14.0 for Marcus Smart. Things get progressively worse from there, bottoming out at the -52.0 (!!!) for Grant Williams (16 minutes).

Notorious: Prior to Game 5, the Celtics had a lower turnover rate than the Warriors in the playoffs. Despite out-rebounding Golden State and shooting better from the three-point line, Boston lost the game because they committed 12 more turnovers than Golden State. That should flip back toward the Celtics tonight. Also, I love Meansy’s stat about Robert Williams net rating and I’ll add that he’s played 31 and 30 minutes the last two games, which are easily his highest totals of the playoffs.

MrTuttle: Jordan Poole minutes got squeezed big time in Game 5 with just two ~7 minute rotations each half. Poole is a scary guy to take an aggressive stance on due to his ability to get hot in a hurry but I’ll likely end up underweight on him.

Who is your top overall play (when considering price, matchup, roster construction, etc.) on the board and why?

meansy53: Jayson Tatum – We are still waiting for that huge Tatum game in this series, and I’m thinking we get it tonight in Game 6. A few things to note. Firstly, while he hasn’t reached 30+ actual points all series, he has done that seven times already in the playoffs. Secondly, his rebounding has been way up the past two games, racking up 11 in Game 4 and 10 in Game 5. And lastly, he has posted two big assist games in this series, 13 in Game 1 and 9 in Game 3. So in other words, the ceiling is still in there, we just need it all to hit in the same game. I am envisioning something like a 35 points, 12 rebounds, and 7 assists kind of night for Tatum, which we’d happily take at his salary (especially if he adds in a few stocks).

Notorious: Jayson Tatum – It feels like he hasn’t been great in this series, but he has topped 40 fantasy points in every game and has averaged over 50 fantasy points in his last three games. He’s much more consistent than Jaylen Brown and the Celtics essentially went all-out to slow down Stephen Curry in Game 5. If they employ that same strategy tonight, there should be a clear path for Tatum to be the highest scoring player of the slate.

MrTuttle: Jayson Tatum – It’s Game 6 you guys know the drill by now. Tatum and Steph are the likeliest top scorers in any given game and are the two players you’ll want the most exposure to in the MVP position on FanDuel. Builds can get a bit uncomfortable if playing both on DraftKings with one in the CPT spot so you may need to get a little creative with a lower-priced CPT option if looking to jam in both Tatum and Curry.

Who is your top contrarian play (when considering price, matchup, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?

meansy53: Jaylen Brown – Not really contrarian, I know, but basically this is me saying I’d want a lot of the Jay’s tonight. I think Boston plays well, which would mean at least one of these two guys is going to have a big fantasy game. Note on DK that the pricing gap between Jaylen and the two studs is a little bit wider than we saw in Game 5. For example, we saw Jaylen only $1,400 cheaper than Steph in Game 4, but he is $1,800 cheaper tonight. Ultimately, what will make Jaylen truly contrarian tonight is to put him in the MVP on FD and go vastly overweight the field on him on DK (where I currently see him at 40% pOWN%).

Notorious: Kevon Looney – He’s been my favorite contrarian play for each of the last two games. It paid dividends in Game 4 and backfired mightily in Game 5. It’s hard to put much stock into his poor outing on Monday though, as he picked up three fouls in his first few minutes of action. He’s been tremendous on a per-minute basis in this series and the Warriors continue to lose in the rebounding battle. If he doesn’t get into foul trouble and if he plays well, he’ll have a path to minutes in the upper 20s.

MrTuttle: Avoid the $2K – $6K range on DraftKings. This is obviously more of a contrarian lineup construction approach but it feels like you’re overpaying for guys in this range. Gary Payton is now $4,200 and while I think he’s likelier to play 20 minutes than 10, it’s important to remeber he’s never been a great fantasy producer. The guy that scares me the most in this range is Jordan Poole because of his instant offense but we saw his minutes cut dramatically in Game 5’s win. While I’m not confident in guys like Bjelica or Iguodala getting minutes, I do think if you can squeze 5-10 DK points out of someone below $2K you have a decent chance at that player hitting optimal lineups. You could also just avoid the $2K-$6K range by going with a cheaper CPT option and maxing one of Curry or Tatum.

What is your hot take of the day?

meansy53: Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown both score 50+ fantasy points.

Notorious: Marcus Smart plays 42 minutes and scores 42 fantasy points in a win.

MrTuttle: Boston wins by double-digits and a player that gets blowout run ends up in GPP winning lineups.

NOTE: Our analysts do their best to update their answers as news comes out throughout the day. For the most up-to-date picks and projections as lineup lock approaches, be sure to head to LineupHQ.

Image Credit: Imagn

Want to know who we are paying up for in NBA DFS today? Wondering which value play we are eyeing most? You’re in luck. Our daily fantasy sports experts will answer a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions for tonight’s contests.

Who is your favorite player for optimal lineups?

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