NBA DFS Expert Survey: Tuesday, January 24th

Want to know who we are paying up for in NBA DFS today? Wondering which value play we are eyeing most? You’re in luck. Our daily fantasy sports experts will answer a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions for tonight’s contests.

Who is your favorite player to spend up for in optimal lineups?

Notorious: Luka Doncic

MrTuttle05: Luka Doncic

headChopper: Luka Doncic

stevietpfl: Luka Doncic

fathalpert: Luka Doncic

Who is your favorite player to spend up for in large-field tournaments?

Notorious: Bradley Beal

MrTuttle05: LeBron James

headChopper: Donovan Mitchell

stevietpfl: Jimmy Butler

fathalpert: Jayson Tatum

Who is your favorite salary relief play in optimal lineups?

Notorious: T.J. McConnell

MrTuttle05: T.J. McConnell

headChopper: T.J. McConnell

stevietpfl: T.J. McConnell

fathalpert: T.J. McConnell & Payton Pritchard

Who is your favorite salary relief play in large-field tournaments?

Notorious: Patrick Williams (FD) / Jericho Sims (DK)

MrTuttle05: Sam Hauser (FD) / Jock Landale (DK)

headChopper: Patrick Williams

stevietpfl: Tyler Herro

fathalpert: Torrey Craig

Who will be the biggest bust relative to salary?

Notorious: Caris LeVert

MrTuttle05: Caris LeVert

headChopper: Jimmy Butler

stevietpfl: Darius Garland

fathalpert: Darius Garland

Who are you most afraid of being underweight on compared to the field?

Notorious: Spencer Dinwiddie

MrTuttle05: Jayson Tatum

headChopper: Bennedict Mathurin

stevietpfl: Jayson Tatum

fathalpert: C.J. McCollum

Who do you believe you’ll be most overweight on compared to the field?

Notorious: Cam Johnson

MrTuttle05: Luka Doncic

headChopper: Buddy Hield

stevietpfl: Cam Johnson

fathalpert: T.J. McConnell

Which team are you targeting players from the most?

Notorious: PHX & BOS

MrTuttle05: BOS

headChopper: IND

stevietpfl: PHX

fathalpert: PHX & BOS

Which team are you looking to avoid most?

Notorious: LAL

MrTuttle05: NYK (FD) / LAC (DK)

headChopper: BOS

stevietpfl: LAL

fathalpert: MIA

Which useful trend or statistic stuck out most during your research?

Notorious: Over the last ten games, the Mavericks have the third worst defensive rating in the league. This could be a good spot for Bradley Beal, as he sees a 0.12 FP/min boost and a 2% usage boost with Kristaps Porzingis off the floor this season.

MrTuttle05: Jaylen Brown, Malcolm Brogdon, Al Horford, and Marcus Smart are all out for the Celtics. As a result, Jayson Tatum projects well. I’m currently undecided on how I will handle Tatum but I do have some concern as he left last night’s game for a period of time with some sort of side injury. If it looks like Tatum is going to get a lot of ownership I think it makes sense to go underweight in hopes that he plays fewer than his projected minutes or is not quite as effective.

headChopper: Over the last 6 games (Haliburton has been out), T.J. McConnell has averaged 15.2 points, 8.5 assists, and 5.5 rebounds. He’s had 2 dud games and still has averaged 38 DK / 37 FD points per game in that span.

stevietpfl: The Pacers have a -1.9 net rating on the season. With Haliburton off the floor, it’s -9.6, which is the worst in the NBA.

fathalpert: We do not have a large sample with the Celtics down Brown/Horford/Brogdon/Smart but CourtIQ shows Payton Pritchard has averaged 0.93 FPPM in this situation while Jayson Tatum is a 1.53 FPPM. I do worry they’ll pull the plug on Tatum early given it’s a B2B if this game gets out of hand, but the data suggests he’s as good of a play as anyone if he gets normal minutes.

Who is your top overall play (when considering price, matchup, roster construction, etc.) on the board and why?

Notorious: Luka Doncic – I was planning to put McConnell here, but a lot of value has opened up now that the Celtics have ruled four of their key players out for tonight’s game. The more value available, the more cap space we have to play Luka. He has had a couple of down games recently, but has still topped 64 fantasy points in four of his last seven games. He dominates the usage regardless, but could be even more involved with Wood being ruled out of tonight’s game against the Wizards.

MrTuttle05: Luka Doncic – It’s early in the day when I am writing this and we already have more than enough value to make fitting Luka into your lineups easy. Doncic has the top raw projection on the slate by a wide margin and it’s shaping up to be a slate where you need to prioritize his 60+ fantasy point projection.

headChopper: T.J. McConnell – No Haliburton again means good things for McConnell. He’s had big numbers in Haliburton’s absence. It includes two different 50+ point fantasy games. The price tag is fantastic, and he gets a good matchup against a Bulls team traveling on the second night of a back-to-back.

stevietpfl: Luka Doncic – With all the value on this slate already, it’s hard not to have Luka as the top overall play. November 26th was the last time Doncic had a usage rate under 30% in a game. He has at least 37% usage in seven of the last ten games. Washington plays at a faster pace, which is also a nice bump for Doncic. I think he has the highest floor/ceiling on this slate.

fathalpert: T.J. McConnell – The answer probably “should” be Luka Doncic, but when factoring in price and opportunity, I give McConnell the nod. We will need to monitor the status of Andrew Nembhard, who is questionable with an illness. If he can’t go, McConnell could be locked into heavy minutes. With Tyrese Haliburton off the court this season, McConnell has averaged 1.1 FPPM. He’s coming off a 50+ fantasy point outing and has the 2nd highest RG Value rating on both sites behind Luka Doncic, yet is priced under $7K. He will be high owned and yes, there are routes to failure now with his price tag increasing, but he’s someone I’d be willing to match the field with at the very least.

Who is your top contrarian play (when considering price, matchup, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?

Notorious: Mikal Bridges – I always hesitate to play Bridges when he’s in the low-$6,000 range, so most will be gun-shy to target him at a price over $7,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. It looks like he’ll be in the single-digits in terms of ownership, which makes him a very enticing play for tournaments. The Suns are going to be without Booker, Payne, Ayton, and Shamet tonight. They are at home and they have the best matchup on the board, as Charlotte plays at a fast pace and might have the worst defense in basketball. Believe it or not, Bridges has topped 40 fantasy points in each of his last five games.

MrTuttle05: LeBron James – The way things currently sit it’s looking like LeBron is going to be the lowest-owned “stud” on the slate. LeBron continues to be the Lakers only source of offense as he’s scored 32+ points in four of his last five games. The Clippers aren’t an ideal matchup (slow-paced, better than average defensively) but that’s part of what is driving his ownership into the single-digit range on a seven game slate.

headChopper: Buddy Hield – TJ and Mathurin will collect the majority of the ownership here. But for GPPs Buddy Hield is my guy, always has been. There is no consistency here, but his upside is spectacular as we have already seen him turn in seven games of 40+ fantasy points this season.

stevietpfl: Deni Avdija – I’m going to be overweight on Doncic tonight, and my favorite run back option is Avdija. With Porzingis out and Hachimura traded, there should be plenty of minutes for Avdija tonight. He has 20-10 upside, and the ceiling to be one of the best point-per-dollar plays on the slate. Dallas is missing some key big men, which could lead to this game going small overall, that’s why I prefer Avdija over Gibson.

fathalpert: Torrey Craig – We just got word that Deandre Ayton was upgraded from Out to Doubtful. I’m guessing he still doesn’t play, but with this game being the late night hammer and the fact Bismack Biyombo / Jock Landale are splitting center minutes, this is probably a spot people will just avoid. The Hornets have allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing centers and the third most to opposing power forwards. The Suns also have the third highest implied team total on this slate but again, I think people will just avoid it. We know Cam Johnson will be popular but he’s also coming off an extended absence from his injury so I don’t know how much they push him. It’s possible we see more Craig as one of their primary bigs, and his role seems secure assuming Ayton is indeed out.

What is your hot take of the day?

Notorious: Luka Doncic and Bradley Beal both top 50 fantasy points in a game that goes into overtime.

MrTuttle05: Luka returns to form with a 75+ fantasy point outing.

headChopper: Donovan Mitchell drops 50 real-life points in the Garden tonight.

stevietpfl: Nikola Vucevic has a 20-20 game.

fathalpert: Sam Hauser goes for a season-high 30 fantasy points tonight.

NOTE: Our analysts do their best to update their answers as news comes out throughout the day. For the most up-to-date picks and projections as lineup lock approaches, be sure to head to LineupHQ.

Image Credit: Imagn

Want to know who we are paying up for in NBA DFS today? Wondering which value play we are eyeing most? You’re in luck. Our daily fantasy sports experts will answer a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions for tonight’s contests.

Who is your favorite player to spend up for in optimal lineups?

Notorious: Luka Doncic

MrTuttle05: Luka Doncic

headChopper: Luka Doncic

stevietpfl: Luka Doncic

fathalpert: Luka Doncic

Who is your favorite player to spend up for in large-field tournaments?

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About the Author

  • John Britt (jmbwngfn)

  • One of the top baseball and hockey analysts in the DFS industry, John Britt is a family man hailing from St. Louis, Missouri. A proud graduate of the University of Missouri, John’s passion is hockey but he excels at multiple DFS sports. He has been nominated multiple times for awards for his written work in both baseball (best MLB series) and hockey (3x NHL Writer of the Year nominee) and is now the Lead Editor at RotoGrinders. John can be found on Twitter at the username JMBWngFn.

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