NBA DFS Expert Survey: Wednesday, November 30th

Want to know who we are paying up for in NBA DFS today? Wondering which value play we are eyeing most? You’re in luck. Our daily fantasy sports experts will answer a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions for tonight’s contests.

Who is your favorite player to spend up for in optimal lineups?

meansy53: Josh Giddey

headChopper: Ja Morant

fathalpert: Anthony Edwards

eys819: Anthony Edwards

stevietpfl: Anthony Edwards

Who is your favorite player to spend up for in large-field tournaments?

meansy53: Devin Booker (FD) / Darius Garland (DK)

headChopper: Kyrie Irving

fathalpert: Anthony Davis

eys819: Zion Williamson

stevietpfl: Tyrese Haliburton

Who is your favorite salary relief play in optimal lineups?

meansy53: Kyle Anderson

headChopper: Kyle Anderson

fathalpert: Tre Mann

eys819: Tre Mann

stevietpfl: Tre Mann

Who is your favorite salary relief play in large-field tournaments?

meansy53: Kelly Olynyk

headChopper: Zach Collins

fathalpert: Zach Collins (FD) / Jaylen Nowell (DK)

eys819: Lu Dort

stevietpfl: Malik Monk

Who will be the biggest bust relative to salary?

meansy53: OG Anunoby (FD) / Kyle Kuzma (DK)

headChopper: Bam Adebayo

fathalpert: Scottie Barnes

eys819: Donovan Mitchell

stevietpfl: Donovan Mitchell (FD) / Kyle Kuzma (DK)

Who are you most afraid of being underweight on compared to the field?

meansy53: Jusuf Nurkic

headChopper: Anthony Davis

fathalpert: Kyrie Irving

eys819: Kyrie Irving

stevietpfl: Kevin Durant

Who do you believe you’ll be most overweight on compared to the field?

meansy53: Anthony Edwards

headChopper: Evan Mobley

fathalpert: Lu Dort

eys819: Lu Dort

stevietpfl: Tyrese Haliburton

Which team are you targeting players from the most?

meansy53: OKC

headChopper: MIN

fathalpert: OKC (Cash) / MIN (GPP)

eys819: OKC

stevietpfl: OKC

Which team are you looking to avoid most?

meansy53: NY

headChopper: MIA

fathalpert: ORL

eys819: NYK

stevietpfl: PHI

Which useful trend or statistic stuck out most during your research?

meansy53: In his 171-minute sample with KAT off of the court this season, Anthony Edwards has seen his usage rate skyrocket up to 32% (an increase of 4.9 percentage points). The end result in terms of per-minute production was 1.18 FD / 1.26 DK.

headChopper: Bol Bol is scoring 36 DK / 37 FD points per game this season when Wendell Carter misses the game (6 games). That’s a significant increase from the ~26 PPG (on both sites) with Carter active.

fathalpert: Nic Claxton played a season-high 36 minutes last game with Ben Simmons got hurt, and he remains out tonight. Claxton has averaged 1.17 fantasy points per min this season with Simmons OFF the court. I have no idea if Claxton sees a similar workload vs WAS, but if he does, 40+ fantasy points is a real possiibility again if he can maintain these rates.

eys819: Josh Giddey has seen a healthy 4.7% usage bump up to 29.0% with SGA off the floor this season, but it is actually Lu Dort (+6.8%) and Jalen Williams (+7.2%) who have seen the largest bumps in usage with SGA off the court. Dort checks-in with a 26.7% usage rate without SGA, while Jalen Williams sits at 24.1%. Tre Mann has also seen a healthy 4.0% usage bump to 24.6%.

stevietpfl: In 204.2 minutes with Karl-Anthony Towns off the floor, Rudy Gobert has a 12% usage rate and he’s averaging .96 fantasy points per minute. That’s a 3.4% decrease in usage and .11 fantasy points per minute lower than his season average.

Who is your top overall play (when considering price, matchup, roster construction, etc.) on the board and why?

meansy53: Anthony Edwards – I can’t say for certain that he will be my favorite player to spend on by the time the slate locks, but he’ll be in the conversation at the very least. I noted the usage increase in the answer above, and this also looks like one of the best game environments on the entire slate. Memphis is also in the bottom 10 in points allowed in the paint (probably slightly skewed though with JJJ’s absence), so we could very well see Ant have a field day if he comes out extremely aggressive attacking the basket. There is obviously plenty to like here, making Ant a top spend in all formats tonight.

headChopper: Anthony Edwards – For me, the salary and projected ownership on Edwards are low enough to give him this top overall spot today. With KAT out of this game, Edwards carries significant upside for this team. He is probably as big of a favorite tonight to lead his team in scoring as just about anyone on this slate (certainly top-tier), and this Minnesota team has a stout 114-point team total.

fathalpert: Anthony Edwards – Meansy’s CourtIQ statistic is exactly what I’m keying in on. Edwards sees a team-high 4.9 percentage point increase in usage and he should now take on a greater role in this offense. It’s a great matchup too against Memphis, who ranks 22nd in defensive efficiency. I do expect secondary players like Kyle Anderson and Jaylen Nowell to both be popular and play larger roles on offense. In fact, I like both as cheaper pieces on this MIN offense. But in terms of floor and ceiling, give me Edwards at a reasonable salary.

eys819: Anthony Edwards – He is going to be the main guy in the offense over the next several weeks while KAT remains sidelined. The price tag has not adjusted to that role since this is their first full gme without KAT this season. The matchup is also a plus against a Grizzlies team that ranks just 20th in defensive rating and plays at the 12th fastest pace.

stevietpfl: Anthony Edwards – Edwards is averaging 1.26 fantasy points per minute and has a 32% usage rate in 171.4 minutes with Towns off the floor this season. Memphis is 20th in defensive rating, and this projects as one of the top pace spots on the slate. Given the matchup and increased usage, I think Edwards is underpriced for this matchup.

Who is your top contrarian play (when considering price, matchup, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?

meansy53: Kelly Olynyk – An early look at LineupHQ shows Olynyk ($5,600 FD / $5,700 DK) with the 8th highest Smash% on FD (13th highest on DK), a ceiling projection of 47 fantasy points, and yet his pOWN% is just 13% FD and 5% DK. On top of that, he is coming off of one of his better games in a while, dropping 41 fantasy points against the Bulls on Monday. We’d absolutely take a repeat performance of that at his price tags, but we’d be dancing in the streets if he reaches that ceiling projection at these low ownership levels.

headChopper: Evan Mobley – The Cavs big man is already a guy you can play in GPP’s and has tournament-winning upside without any team injuries. He already plays 34 minutes a game and contributes heavily in rebounding and blocked shots/steals. Now we add in Jarrett Allen and Kevin Love missing time and Mobley has a very high ceiling at a very modest ownership rate tonight.

fathalpert: Anthony Davis – I feel like the nature of the slate has us paying down at the forward and center positions. Jakob Poeltl is out so Zach Collins likely starts and is a fine punt play. Ben Simmons is out so we could see Nic Claxton get more run and be a popular center target. By flipping the built and paying up at the forward or center spots, that seems like the easiest way to get contrarian. I really like both big-men options in this LAL/POR game in Anthony Davis and Jerami Grant. Grant is flashing 40+ floors recently with Damian Lillard out, while Davis has nearly dropped 60 fantasy points in back-to-back games even with LeBron James back. We have AD projected with the highest ceiling on FD and the second highest ceiling on DK.

eys819: Zion Williamson – Brandon Ingram and C.J. McCollum are out again tonight, yet Zion is still projecting for less than 5% ownership on both sites. It is certainly not the easiest matchup against Toronto, but Zion has seen a usage rate of 31.6% with BI and CJM off the floor this season. He has averaged 27.2 points, 7.8 rebounds and 6.0 assists per-36 minutes without those two, and he saw 35 minutes in his last game against OKC. He should see 34-35 minutes again, and I am not letting a tough matchup scare me away from a sub-5% owned Zion.

stevietpfl: Tyrese Haliburton – Because of his price, Tyrese Haliburton is going overlooked on this slate. He’s currently at 7% pOWN% on DK and 5.6% on FD. Indiana and Sacramento play at the 5th and 6th fastest pace in the NBA. The Kings rank 25th in defensive rating, which makes this one of the best matchups on the slate. Given the matchup and Haliburton’s upside, I’ll be overweight on him going back to Sacramento tonight.

What is your hot take of the day?

meansy53: Domantas Sabonis has a triple-double against the Pacers (because it’s an elite matchup against a team that allows the second most points in the paint per game…not because of revenge).

headChopper: Zach Collins flashes that fantasy potential with a double-double tonight.

fathalpert: Tyrese Haiburton drops 60 fantasy revenge points against the Kings.

eys819: Zion Williamson goes for a 30-point triple-double against Toronto.

stevietpfl: Malik Monk goes for 40+ fantasy points.

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NOTE: Our analysts do their best to update their answers as news comes out throughout the day. For the most up-to-date picks and projections as lineup lock approaches, be sure to head to LineupHQ.

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