NBA DFS Expert Survey: Monday, November 20th

Our panel of experts is here to give you their NBA DFS picks for the upcoming slate by answering a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions. Want to know squirrelpatrol’s favorite tournament play? Or Noto’s favorite salary saver? Find out below!

NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Expert Survey for Monday, November 20

Who is your favorite player to spend up for in cash games?

Notorious: James Harden (gulp)

tcsmith031: James Harden

squirrelpatrol: James Harden

TastefulTides: James Harden

Bobby Gomes: Paul George

Who is your favorite player to spend up for in large-field tournaments?

Notorious: De’Aaron Fox

tcsmith031: Kawhi Leonard

squirrelpatrol: Giannis Antetokounmpo

TastefulTides: Nikola Jokic

Bobby Gomes: Domantas Sabonis

Who is your favorite salary relief play in cash games?

Notorious: Andrew Wiggins (FD) / Kevon Looney (DK)

tcsmith031: Reggie Jackson (FD) / Corey Kispert (DK)

squirrelpatrol: Reggie Jackson (FD) / Norman Powell (DK)

TastefulTides: Reggie Jackson (FD) / Norman Powell (DK)

Bobby Gomes: Reggie Jackson (FD) / Danilo Gallinari (DK)

Who is your favorite salary relief play in large-field tournaments?

Notorious: Bilal Coulibaly

tcsmith031: Bilal Coulibaly

squirrelpatrol: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (FD) / Terance Mann (DK)

TastefulTides: Payton Pritchard

Bobby Gomes: Brandin Podziemski

Who will be the biggest bust relative to salary?

Notorious: Brandon Miller

tcsmith031: Zach LaVine

squirrelpatrol: Julius Randle

TastefulTides: Jalen Brunson

Bobby Gomes: Stephen Curry

Who are you most afraid of being underweight on compared to the field?

Notorious: Paul George

tcsmith031: Giannis Antetokounmpo

squirrelpatrol: Nikola Jokic

TastefulTides: Giannis Antetokounmpo

Bobby Gomes: Stephen Curry

Who do you believe you’ll be most overweight on compared to the field?

Notorious: Aaron Gordon (FD) / Michael Porter (DK)

tcsmith031: Alperen Sengun

squirrelpatrol: Kawhi Leonard

TastefulTides: Fred VanVleet

Bobby Gomes: Domantas Sabonis

Which team are you targeting players from the most?

Notorious: LAC

tcsmith031: LAC

squirrelpatrol: LAC

TastefulTides: LAC

Bobby Gomes: DEN & LAC

Which team are you looking to avoid players from the most?

Notorious: CHI

tcsmith031: NYK

squirrelpatrol: NYK

TastefulTides: NYK & MIN

Bobby Gomes: CHI

Which useful trend or statistic stuck out most during your research?

Notorious: It doesn’t look like the Pelicans are garnering much ownership, but they could be solid tournament options. With CJ McCollum out of the lineup this season, here is how many fantasy points the following players have averaged: Brandon Ingram 40.2, Zion Williamson 38.6, Jonas Valanciunas 32.6, and Dyson Daniels 28.2.

tcsmith031: The Rockets were a fast-paced team that played zero defense under Stephen Silas, but it’s been a different story this season under Ime Udoka. Houston ranks dead-last in pace, while they’re all the way up to 4th in defensive efficiency.

squirrelpatrol: The difference between the highest total game (MIL/WAS at 245.5) and the lowest total game (MIA/CHI at 208.5) is the largest difference I can recall. Bucks and Wizards players aren’t jumping off the projections page but are worth considering in a game stack for tournaments.

TastefulTides: The Clippers get the best possible matchup when it comes to pace and opponent defensive rating. The Spurs have the 2nd-worst defensive rating while playing at the 4th-fastest pace. I would consider a min-1 rule for Clippers in my GPP portfolio.

Bobby Gomes: The SAC/NO game has a total of 237.5 points, and the spread is close (Kings -1.5). Both teams are top 12 in pace. This game has the ingredients of a close track meet with numerous players on both sides firmly in play.

Who is your top overall play (when considering price, matchup, roster construction, etc.) on the board and why?

Notorious: James Harden – I can’t believe I’m writing up Harden as my top overall play, but he’s affordable and playing in one of the best matchups on the slate. The Spurs are ranked 4th in pace and bottom 8 in rebounding rate, 3-point percentage allowed, points allowed, and defensive rating. Harden is coming off of his best game of the season (45 FD / 47 DK) and is doing it without a high shot volume.

tcsmith031: Nikola Jokic – If enough value emerges later in the day, I’d like to find a way to get up to Jokic in a glorious matchup against the Pistons. All he’s done so far this season with Jamal Murray off the floor is average an incredible 2 DK points per minute while leading the team in usage, assist rate, and rebound rate. Jokic’s $12,800 salary could help to keep his ownership down at reasonable levels.

squirrelpatrol: James Harden – I’m used to plugging in “LAC” for what team I’m looking to avoid the most, but we’re finally at the intersection of dropping prices and a good matchup for the Clippers. The prices on Harden and Kawhi Leonard have dropped $1,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings, and they are facing a Spurs team that allows the most points per game in the NBA (124.2).

TastefulTides: Nikola Jokic – There isn’t a lot of good cheap value as of this writing, but I would imagine with a few teams on back-to-backs, there should be some that opens up later in the day. Jokic should be your top priority in all formats and sites. He is projected close to 70 fantasy points and is a triple-double machine. 2 DK points per minute without Jamal Murray on the floor is too good to pass up, even if he is going to be highly owned.

Bobby Gomes: Domantas Sabonis – Going back to Sabonis in a game that I stated above will be fast. Sabonis has 55+ FPTS in 5 of his last 6 games, as he’s dominated on both ends of the floor. His price on DraftKings has stayed steady around $10,000, and I’ll be using him as a building block.

Who is your top contrarian play (when considering price, matchup, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?

Notorious: De’Aaron Fox – Since returning from injury, he has scored 42, 50, 69, and 55 fantasy points. It’s essentially been a two-man show for the Kings, and it has worked wonders on the court. Tonight, they square off against the Pelicans, who are a better matchup than you might expect — 8th in pace and 19th in points allowed per game. Fox is expensive, but that has led to a nice discount in ownership.

tcsmith031: Kawhi Leonard – Quite a few Clippers project to be popular in an exploitable matchup against the Spurs, but Kawhi Leonard could go overlooked. His overall production is down a bit this season, but we saw in the last game that there’s still enough usage to go around for these guys with Russell Westbrook relegated to a reserve role. Kawhi is quietly playing 37-38 minutes in competitive games, and his salary has trickled down amid the Clippers’ recent struggles. If Paul George is going to be chalkier, pivoting down to Kawhi makes sense in tournaments.

squirrelpatrol: Giannis Antetokounmpo – The Bucks are 9.5-point favorites in their game against Washington that has a 245.5 total, giving Milwaukee an eye-popping 127.5 implied team total. Washington has allowed the 3rd-most points per game in the NBA (122.9) and the most rebounds per game (50.7). Washington has a -11.7 rebounding differential, more than twice that of the next-worst team. Giannis might go berserk tonight.

TastefulTides: Giannis Antetokounmpo – Washington is a team that we always want to attack for DFS purposes. Giannis’ ownership should stay relatively in check given that most people will want to prioritize Nikola Jokic. Giannis can match the ceiling of Jokic and should come with a fraction of the ownership.

Bobby Gomes: Paul George – George has 40 or more FPTS in 3 of his last 4 games. He is the centerpiece of the Clippers offense, stuffing the stat sheet in every area. The Spurs are terrible, and it is a great spot for the Clippers as a whole.

What is your hot take of the day?

Notorious: Andrew Wiggins tops 40 fantasy points for the second straight game.

tcsmith031: Jordan Poole tops 20 real-life points and shoots better than 50% from the field.

squirrelpatrol: Giannis Antetokoumpo sets a career-high with 23 rebounds and adds 30 points as well.

TastefulTides: The Celtics win by 20+, and Payton Pritchard is in the optimal GPP lineup.

Bobby Gomes: Jalen Brunson triple-doubles against the Wolves.

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NOTE: Our analysts do their best to update their answers as news comes out throughout the day. For the most up-to-date picks and projections as lineup lock approaches, be sure to head to LineupHQ.

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