NBA DFS Playoff Primer: Monday, May 1
The NBA postseason is finally upon us. We no longer have to worry about players resting, late scratches, and teams trying to lose. For the next couple of months, we get meaningful basketball game after meaningful basketball game. We have decided to combine the Core Plays and the Grind Down into one all-encompassing article for the NBA playoffs. We will break down each slate, sift through the game flow trackers of prior meetings between teams, cover the notable matchups, and provide our favorite NBA DFS targets.
The NBA playoffs have been amazing so far, but I was hoping for a little better action over the weekend. The Kings were able to force a game seven against the Warriors, but were then blown out at home. The Suns were able to put up much of a fight in their series opener against the Nuggets. And the Knicks forgot that a basketball game consists of four quarters and were outscored by 12 points in the second half of their game one loss against the Heat.
Let’s hope tonight’s games are a little more competitive. It’s better for both the viewing experience and for the DFS sweat. Let’s get into the games.
Game 1: Philadelphia Sixers at Boston Celtics
- Time: 7:30 PM ET
- Regular Season Series: Sixers 1 – Celtics 3
Previous Matchups
- Sixers 117 at Celtics 126
- Sixers 99 at Celtics 106
- Celtics 110 at Sixers 107
- Celtics 101 at Sixers 103
Notable Injuries
Joel Embiid – Doubtful
Philadelphia Sixers Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden | $8,800 | $9,000 | 36.8 | 3.6 | 49.0 | -0.5 | 25% | 1.33 | -0.13 | 1.26 | -0.11 | 38 | 47.6 | 5.41 | 44.6 | 4.96 | ||
| Tyrese Maxey | $6,900 | $7,500 | 33.6 | 5.6 | 31.7 | -1.2 | 24% | 0.94 | -0.16 | 0.91 | -0.13 | 38 | 38.6 | 5.59 | 37.0 | 4.93 | ||
| Tobias Harris | $6,400 | $7,200 | 32.9 | 4.5 | 28.8 | 19.2 | 18% | 0.87 | 0.41 | 0.87 | 0.40 | 36 | 33.1 | 5.17 | 31.9 | 4.43 | ||
| P.J. Tucker | $3,700 | $4,300 | 25.6 | 3.9 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 7% | 0.43 | 0.04 | 0.43 | 0.09 | 28 | 13.6 | 3.68 | 13.6 | 3.17 | ||
| Paul Reed | $5,300 | $6,000 | 10.9 | 21.0 | 12.1 | 24.6 | 15% | 1.11 | 0.04 | 1.20 | -0.05 | 28 | 28.1 | 5.30 | 29.4 | 4.90 | ||
| De’Anthony Melton | $4,000 | $4,700 | 27.9 | -0.1 | 23.7 | -1.7 | 16% | 3% | 0.85 | -0.06 | 0.86 | -0.13 | 27 | 20.9 | 5.23 | 21.2 | 4.50 | |
| Jalen McDaniels | $3,200 | $3,900 | 23.9 | -8.9 | 19.9 | -13.9 | 17% | 0.83 | -0.43 | 0.84 | -0.48 | 20 | 13.8 | 4.32 | 13.9 | 3.56 | ||
| Georges Niang | $3,100 | $3,700 | 19.4 | -9.5 | 14.6 | -9.1 | 16% | 0.75 | -0.19 | 0.71 | -0.16 | 17 | 11.6 | 3.75 | 10.9 | 2.94 | ||
| Shake Milton | $3,000 | $3,800 | 20.6 | -16.5 | 17.1 | -12.6 | 18% | 0.83 | 0.27 | 0.81 | 0.29 | 5 | 3.6 | 1.20 | 3.5 | 0.93 | ||
| Montrezl Harrell | $3,400 | $4,000 | 11.9 | -7.0 | 11.1 | -9.9 | 18% | 0.93 | -0.68 | 0.97 | -0.71 | 3 | 2.6 | 0.76 | 2.6 | 0.65 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and this series.
Boston Celtics Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Smart | $5,700 | $7,000 | 32.1 | 0.5 | 28.6 | 6.4 | 18% | 0.89 | 0.18 | 0.88 | 0.16 | 33 | 27.1 | 4.76 | 26.6 | 3.79 | ||
| Derrick White | $5,600 | $5,900 | 28.3 | 1.5 | 26.4 | -11.9 | 17% | -4% | 0.93 | -0.45 | 0.93 | -0.44 | 32 | 28.6 | 5.11 | 28.3 | 4.80 | |
| Jaylen Brown | $8,200 | $8,400 | 35.9 | 3.7 | 43.5 | 1.7 | 31% | 1.21 | -0.07 | 1.17 | -0.11 | 39 | 43.9 | 5.35 | 41.9 | 4.99 | ||
| Jayson Tatum | $9,900 | $10,900 | 36.9 | 3.0 | 52.4 | 15.1 | 32% | 1.42 | 0.27 | 1.37 | 0.31 | 39 | 52.8 | 5.33 | 50.1 | 4.59 | ||
| Al Horford | $5,200 | $6,100 | 30.5 | -0.6 | 26.1 | 17.4 | 12% | -1% | 0.85 | 0.60 | 0.85 | 0.69 | 33 | 24.0 | 4.62 | 24.0 | 3.93 | |
| Robert Williams | $4,800 | $5,800 | 23.5 | -6.9 | 24.2 | -3.2 | 11% | 1.03 | 0.23 | 1.08 | 0.45 | 23 | 22.5 | 4.68 | 23.7 | 4.08 | ||
| Malcolm Brogdon | $4,900 | $5,400 | 26.0 | 4.0 | 28.0 | -2.0 | 22% | 1.08 | -0.21 | 1.05 | -0.20 | 26 | 24.6 | 5.01 | 24.0 | 4.44 | ||
| Grant Williams | $3,400 | $3,700 | 25.9 | -8.5 | 18.5 | -9.5 | 13% | 0.71 | -0.20 | 0.70 | -0.18 | 8 | 5.3 | 1.56 | 5.2 | 1.40 | ||
| Sam Hauser | $3,000 | $3,600 | 16.1 | -11.7 | 13.1 | -9.6 | 14% | 0.81 | -0.02 | 0.79 | -0.11 | 6 | 3.3 | 1.11 | 3.3 | 0.90 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and this series.
Game Analysis
This is one of those playoff series that could easily go seven games or turn into a rout. Much of that depends on the health of Joel Embiid, who is listed as doubtful for tonight’s game. He hurt his knee in game three against the Nets (11 days ago) and doesn’t look like he’ll be ready for the series opener. This is a big issue for Philadelphia, as he’s arguably their best player on both ends of the floor. The Celtics won three of the four regular season meetings and come into tonight’s game as 9-point favorites.
We could go back and look at the individual matchups between these teams during the regular season, but I’m not sure that would do us any good in this particular scenario. Embiid was able to suit up for all four of those games and we are expected him to sit out game one of this series. Instead, let’s focus on who benefits the most from the Sixers when Embiid is off the floor. Here is a link to the on/off report and a summary of the key takeaways:
