NBA DFS Playoff Primer: Saturday, April 29
The NBA postseason is finally upon us. We no longer have to worry about players resting, late scratches, and teams trying to lose. For the next couple of months, we get meaningful basketball game after meaningful basketball game. We have decided to combine the Core Plays and the Grind Down into one all-encompassing article for the NBA playoffs. We will break down each slate, sift through the game flow trackers of prior meetings between teams, cover the notable matchups, and provide our favorite NBA DFS targets.
The second round of the 2023 NBA playoffs is nigh. We’ve only got one game on this fine Saturday, but it’s a doozy. The top-seeded Nuggets will play host to the 4th-seeded Suns in a showdown between what may well be the two best teams in the West.
Denver will have home-court advantage, but Phoenix is favored to win this series. The Suns actually have the best odds to come out of the West, even after a fairly unconvincing showing against the Clippers in the first round. The Nuggets, meanwhile, disposed of the Timberwolves in 5 games.
Game 1: Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets
- Time: 8:30 PM ET
Previous Matchups
- PHX 125 at DEN 128 (OT, 12/25/22)
- PHX 97 at DEN 126 (1/11/23)
- DEN 93 at PHX 100 (3/31/23)
- DEN 115 at PHX 119 (4/6/23)
Notable Injuries
None
Phoenix Suns Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Paul | $8,200 | $13,500 | 32.0 | 6.5 | 36.8 | 3.5 | 20% | -3% | 1.15 | -0.10 | 1.14 | -0.05 | 38 | 39.7 | 4.84 | 39.3 | 2.91 | |
| Devin Booker | $11,000 | $16,000 | 34.6 | 8.5 | 44.1 | 16.3 | 31% | -2% | 1.28 | 0.13 | 1.24 | 0.17 | 42 | 46.7 | 4.25 | 45.5 | 2.84 | |
| Torrey Craig | $4,400 | $7,000 | 24.7 | 0.8 | 19.5 | 1.3 | 13% | 1% | 0.79 | 0.03 | 0.80 | 0.00 | 25 | 18.0 | 4.08 | 18.1 | 2.58 | |
| Kevin Durant | $10,600 | $15,500 | 35.6 | 8.2 | 48.7 | 2.6 | 31% | -7% | 1.37 | -0.20 | 1.35 | -0.21 | 42 | 50.9 | 4.80 | 49.7 | 3.21 | |
| Deandre Ayton | $7,800 | $11,500 | 30.4 | 3.9 | 35.8 | -1.9 | 23% | -3% | 1.18 | -0.19 | 1.17 | -0.20 | 35 | 33.4 | 4.29 | 33.4 | 2.91 | |
| Josh Okogie | $5,400 | $7,000 | 18.8 | 1.2 | 16.6 | -2.0 | 17% | -6% | 0.88 | -0.15 | 0.90 | -0.13 | 26 | 18.2 | 3.36 | 18.7 | 2.68 | |
| Landry Shamet | $1,400 | $6,000 | 20.2 | -9.2 | 16.4 | -12.2 | 19% | -8% | 0.81 | -0.43 | 0.78 | -0.37 | 6 | 4.1 | 2.94 | 4.0 | 0.67 | |
| Bismack Biyombo | $4,000 | $7,500 | 14.3 | -3.3 | 14.1 | 0.8 | 14% | 3% | 0.99 | 0.36 | 1.07 | 0.41 | 12 | 11.1 | 2.77 | 11.8 | 1.57 | |
| Damion Lee | $2,200 | $6,000 | 20.4 | -11.6 | 15.1 | -11.3 | 16% | -7% | 0.74 | -0.31 | 0.70 | -0.28 | 10 | 7.7 | 3.49 | 7.3 | 1.22 | |
| Cameron Payne | $3,200 | $6,000 | 20.2 | -16.9 | 21.5 | -18.5 | 24% | 1.07 | -0.16 | 1.03 | -0.12 | 4 | 3.8 | 1.19 | 3.7 | 0.61 |
Denver Nuggets Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
table(tbl data-table).
|^.
|_. Player |_=. DK |_=. FD |_=. MIN/G |_=. +/- |_=. FP/G |_=. +/- |_=. USG% |_=. +/- |_=. DK/M |_=. +/- |_=. FD/M |_=. +/- |{background:#9db1bf; color:black}=. |_=. MIN (P) |_=. DK (P) |_=. DK/$ |_=. FD (P) |_=. FD/$ |
|-.
| Jamal Murray |=. $9,400 |=. $14,500 |=. 32.8 |{background:#B7D4FF; color:black}=. 5.6 |=. 37.1 |{background:#B7D4FF; color:black}=. 10.0 |{background:#B7D4FF; color:black}=. 26% |{background:#D4FFD4; color:black}=. 3% |{background:#D4FFD4; color:black}=. 1.13 |{background:#D4FFD4; color:black}=. 0.10 |{background:#D4FFD4; color:black}=. 1.09 |{background:#D4FFD4; color:black}=. 0.09 |{background:#9db1bf; color:black}=. |=. 39 |=. 46.4 |{background:#B7D4FF; color:black}=. 4.94 |=. 44.3 |{background:#D4FFD4; color:black}=. 3.06 |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope |=. $4,800 |=. $8,000 |=. 31.3 |{background:#D4FFD4; color:black}=. 1.7 |=. 22.1 |{background:#FFFFC9; color:black}=. -2.7 |{background:#FFFFC9; color:black}=. 14% |{background:#D4FFD4; color:black}=. 0% |{background:#FFD0D0; color:black}=. 0.71 |{background:#FFD0D0; color:black}=. -0.12 |{background:#FFD0D0; color:black}=. 0.72 |{background:#FFD0D0; color:black}=. -0.13 |{background:#9db1bf; color:black}=. |=. 32 |=. 20.9 |{background:#FFFFC9; color:black}=. 4.36 |=. 21.1 |{background:#FFFFC9; color:black}=. 2.64 |
| Michael Porter |=. $6,800 |=. $10,000 |=. 29.0 |{background:#B7D4FF; color:black}=. 6.9 |=. 29.0 |{background:#B7D4FF; color:black}=. 4.4 |{background:#B7D4FF; color:black}=. 22% |{background:#FFD0D0; color:black}=. -6% |{background:#FFFFC9; color:black}=. 1.00 |{background:#FFFFC9; color:black}=. -0.07 |{background:#FFFFC9; color:black}=. 0.96 |{background:#FFFFC9; color:black}=. -0.04 |{background:#9db1bf; color:black}=. |=. 36 |=. 32.8 |{background:#B7D4FF; color:black}=. 4.83 |=. 31.8 |{background:#D4FFD4; color:black}=. 3.18 |
| Aaron Gordon |=. $7,200 |=. $9,000 |=. 30.2 |{background:#D4FFD4; color:black}=. 2.5 |=. 32.2 |{background:#FFD0D0; color:black}=. -5.6 |{background:#D4FFD4; color:black}=. 21% |{background:#FFD0D0; color:black}=. -5% |{background:#D4FFD4; color:black}=. 1.07 |{background:#FFD0D0; color:black}=. -0.25 |{background:#D4FFD4; color:black}=. 1.07 |{background:#FFD0D0; color:black}=. -0.27 |{background:#9db1bf; color:black}=. |=. 35 |=. 29.0 |{background:#FFFFC9; color:black}=. 4.02 |=. 29.2 |{background:#B7D4FF; color:black}=. 3.24 |
| Nikola Jokic |=. $12,400 |=. $17,000 |=. 33.7 |{background:#B7D4FF; color:black}=. 3.3 |=. 59.1 |{background:#D4FFD4; color:black}=. 1.4 |{background:#B7D4FF; color:black}=. 26% |{background:#B7D4FF; color:black}=. 4% |{background:#B7D4FF; color:black}=. 1.75 |{background:#FFD0D0; color:black}=. -0.12 |{background:#B7D4FF; color:black}=. 1.67 |{background:#FFD0D0; color:black}=. -0.13 |{background:#9db1bf; color:black}=. |=. 38 |=. 58.6 |{background:#D4FFD4; color:black}=. 4.73 |=. 56.8 |{background:#B7D4FF; color:black}=. 3.34 |
| Bruce Brown |=. $5,000 |=. $8,500 |=. 28.5 |{background:#FFFFC9; color:black}=. -1.5 |=. 25.0 |{background:#FFFFC9; color:black}=. -2.4 |{background:#FFFFC9; color:black}=. 17% |{background:#D4FFD4; color:black}=. 0% |{background:#FFFFC9; color:black}=. 0.88 |{background:#FFFFC9; color:black}=. -0.04 |{background:#FFFFC9; color:black}=. 0.89 |{background:#FFFFC9; color:black}=. -0.04 |{background:#9db1bf; color:black}=. |=. 26 |=. 23.1 |{background:#D4FFD4; color:black}=. 4.62 |=. 23.7 |{background:#FFFFC9; color:black}=. 2.78 |
| Jeff Green |=. $3,600 |=. $7,000 |=. 19.5 |{background:#B7D4FF; color:black}=. 3.0 |=. 13.9 |{background:#FFD0D0; color:black}=. -3.7 |{background:#FFFFC9; color:black}=. 17% |{background:#FFD0D0; color:black}=. -6% |{background:#FFD0D0; color:black}=. 0.71 |{background:#FFD0D0; color:black}=. -0.26 |{background:#FFD0D0; color:black}=. 0.71 |{background:#FFD0D0; color:black}=. -0.22 |{background:#9db1bf; color:black}=. |=. 20 |=. 11.8 |{background:#FFD0D0; color:black}=. 3.27 |=. 11.7 |{background:#FFD0D0; color:black}=. 1.68 |
| Christian Braun |=. $2,600 |=. $6,500 |=. 15.5 |{background:#FFFFC9; color:black}=. -2.8 |=. 10.3 |{background:#FFD0D0; color:black}=. -3.0 |{background:#FFFFC9; color:black}=. 13% |{background:#FFD0D0; color:black}=. -4% |{background:#FFD0D0; color:black}=. 0.66 |{background:#FFFFC9; color:black}=. -0.09 |{background:#FFD0D0; color:black}=. 0.68 |{background:#FFD0D0; color:black}=. -0.12 |{background:#9db1bf; color:black}=. |=. 13 |=. 8.3 |{background:#FFD0D0; color:black}=. 3.20 |=. 8.5 |{background:#FFD0D0; color:black}=. 1.30 |
| DeAndre Jordan |=. $1,000 |=. $6,000 |=. 15.0 |{background:#FFD0D0; color:black}=. -11.5 |=. 14.2 |{background:#FFD0D0; color:black}=. -10.8 |{background:#FFFFC9; color:black}=. 13% |{background:#B7D4FF; color:black}=. 8% |{background:#FFFFC9; color:black}=. 0.95 |{background:#D4FFD4; color:black}=. 0.03 |{background:#FFFFC9; color:black}=. 0.96 |{background:#FFFFC9; color:black}=. -0.08 |{background:#9db1bf; color:black}=. |=. 1 |=. 1.2 |{background:#FFD0D0; color:black}=. 1.20 |=. 1.2 |{background:#FFD0D0; color:black}=. 0.20 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and this series.
Suns Game Analysis
Once they nabbed Kevin Durant from the Nets, we knew scoring wouldn’t be an issue for the Suns. Phoenix put at least 123 points on the board in 3 of the last 4 games of the Clippers series. While the Nuggets are the No. 1 seed, they were hardly an elite defensive team during the regular season. Denver yielded 111.8 points per 100 possessions, which ranked a so-so 18th in the league.