NBA DFS Playoff Primer: Saturday, May 20
The NBA postseason is finally upon us. We no longer have to worry about players resting, late scratches, and teams trying to lose. For the next couple of months, we get meaningful basketball game after meaningful basketball game. We have decided to combine the Core Plays and the Grind Down into one all-encompassing article for the NBA playoffs. We will break down each slate, sift through the game flow trackers of prior meetings between teams, cover the notable matchups, and provide our favorite NBA DFS targets.
The conference finals have been pretty, pretty good so far, huh? The Nuggets and Heat are both up 2-0 in their respective series, but every game has been a competitive grind. Tonight, the scene shifts to Los Angeles for Game 3. The Lakers will essentially try to keep their season alive, while the Nuggets will try to get within a win of their first-ever NBA Finals appearance. As of this writing, LA is a 5.5-point favorite on their home floor in this one.
Game 3: Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers
- Time: 8:30 PM ET
- Series: Nuggets 2 – Lakers 0
Series Matchups
- Game 1: LAL 126 at DEN 132
- Game 2: LAL 103 at DEN 108
Notable Injuries
LeBron James (Probable)
Anthony Davis (Probable)
Mo Bamba (Out)
Denver Nuggets Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | $9,800 | $14,500 | 32.8 | 7.1 | 37.1 | 24.1 | 26% | 2% | 1.13 | 0.40 | 1.09 | 0.44 | 39 | 43.3 | 4.42 | 41.5 | 2.86 | |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | $6,000 | $8,000 | 31.3 | -0.5 | 22.1 | 3.0 | 14% | 5% | 0.71 | 0.11 | 0.72 | 0.08 | 36 | 21.0 | 3.51 | 21.7 | 2.71 | |
| Michael Porter | $7,200 | $11,000 | 29.0 | 3.9 | 29.0 | 4.4 | 22% | -5% | 1.00 | 0.01 | 0.96 | -0.03 | 34 | 30.6 | 4.25 | 29.6 | 2.69 | |
| Aaron Gordon | $7,000 | $8,500 | 30.2 | 7.3 | 32.2 | -13.4 | 21% | -6% | 1.07 | -0.56 | 1.07 | -0.59 | 36 | 29.5 | 4.21 | 29.8 | 3.50 | |
| Nikola Jokic | $12,800 | $17,500 | 33.7 | 8.5 | 59.1 | 20.4 | 26% | 0% | 1.75 | 0.13 | 1.67 | 0.09 | 41 | 68.4 | 5.34 | 66.2 | 3.78 | |
| Bruce Brown | $6,600 | $10,000 | 28.5 | 2.2 | 25.0 | 1.1 | 17% | -2% | 0.88 | -0.03 | 0.89 | -0.03 | 24 | 21.7 | 3.28 | 22.2 | 2.22 | |
| Jeff Green | $3,000 | $6,000 | 19.5 | -3.3 | 13.9 | -9.5 | 17% | -5% | 0.71 | -0.44 | 0.71 | -0.47 | 18 | 10.3 | 3.43 | 10.3 | 1.71 | |
| Christian Braun | $2,000 | $6,000 | 15.5 | -7.1 | 10.3 | -8.0 | 13% | -2% | 0.66 | -0.39 | 0.68 | -0.35 | 12 | 7.5 | 3.73 | 7.6 | 1.27 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and the playoffs.
Los Angeles Lakers Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D’Angelo Russell | $6,800 | $9,500 | 32.5 | -3.0 | 33.9 | -14.3 | 23% | -5% | 1.04 | -0.38 | 1.00 | -0.31 | 28 | 25.9 | 3.81 | 24.7 | 2.60 | |
| Austin Reaves | $7,400 | $12,500 | 28.8 | 10.3 | 23.4 | 15.0 | 15% | 4% | 0.81 | 0.17 | 0.79 | 0.13 | 40 | 34.3 | 4.64 | 33.1 | 2.65 | |
| LeBron James | $11,400 | $15,500 | 35.5 | 4.5 | 52.6 | 5.8 | 32% | -5% | 1.48 | -0.02 | 1.43 | 0.04 | 40 | 50.4 | 4.42 | 48.7 | 3.14 | |
| Jarred Vanderbilt | $2,200 | $6,500 | 24.1 | -10.6 | 23.5 | -18.1 | 14% | -7% | 0.97 | -0.58 | 0.99 | -0.57 | 18 | 12.1 | 5.50 | 12.6 | 1.94 | |
| Anthony Davis | $11,200 | $16,000 | 34.0 | 7.4 | 51.7 | 8.5 | 28% | 0% | 1.52 | -0.07 | 1.54 | -0.04 | 42 | 54.8 | 4.89 | 55.6 | 3.47 | |
| Dennis Schroder | $4,800 | $7,000 | 30.1 | 0.9 | 24.2 | -9.1 | 18% | -7% | 0.80 | -0.32 | 0.79 | -0.33 | 26 | 17.3 | 3.61 | 17.2 | 2.45 | |
| Rui Hachimura | $4,600 | $7,500 | 23.3 | 5.8 | 19.6 | 4.4 | 19% | -1% | 0.84 | -0.02 | 0.84 | 0.00 | 27 | 20.8 | 4.51 | 20.5 | 2.73 | |
| Lonnie Walker | $3,200 | $6,500 | 23.2 | -6.9 | 17.7 | -8.6 | 20% | -7% | 0.76 | -0.20 | 0.75 | -0.16 | 19 | 12.9 | 4.03 | 12.7 | 1.96 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and the playoffs.
Game 3 Analysis
The Nuggets haven’t cruised through the first 2 games of this series, but they have certainly been the better team on aggregate. They led comfortably for most of Game 1 before surviving a late scare in the fourth quarter. Denver trailed for most of Game 2, however, before the late heroics of Jamal Murray helped to nudge them across the finish line. Murray’s been a monster in this series, and the Lakers clearly don’t have anybody capable of guarding him. His usage is up over 29% in the playoffs, which is about a 3% boost over his regular-season rate. His fantasy output in Game 2 was aided by his 14 combined rebounds and steals, and I’ll certainly take the under on that tonight. If Murray is going to be a popular captain/MVP choice as a result of his game logs, I don’t mind going in another direction.
Mike Malone doesn’t mind riding the hot hand between Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. The latter got most of the run in Game 1, while Brown totaled 37 minutes in Game 2. KCP (0.70 FP/min) has the inside track to the minutes as the starter, though Brown is better on a per-minute basis (0.88). That’s reflected in the projections. They project almost identically even though Caldwell-Pope projects to play 12 more minutes. I’ll give the edge to KCP from a value standpoint, especially on FanDuel where he’ll cost you $2,000 less than Brown.
Aaron Gordon had a terrific season, but he’s been a non-factor offensively in the playoffs. His per-minute rate is all the way down to a not-so-nice 0.69. The minutes are there as he’s playing an important defensive role, but this offense flows through Murray, Nikola Jokic, and Michael Porter. MPJ runs hot and cold in the shooting department, but his upside is a lot more bankable than Gordon’s at their similar salaries on DraftKings. On FanDuel, I have no qualms with rolling the dice on an underpriced Gordon ($8,500) despite his underwhelming postseason output.