NBA DFS Playoff Primer: Sunday, April 30
The NBA postseason is finally upon us. We no longer have to worry about players resting, late scratches, and teams trying to lose. For the next couple of months, we get meaningful basketball game after meaningful basketball game. We have decided to combine the Core Plays and the Grind Down into one all-encompassing article for the NBA playoffs. We will break down each slate, sift through the game flow trackers of prior meetings between teams, cover the notable matchups, and provide our favorite NBA DFS targets.
The Nuggets thwacked the Suns in Saturday’s only NBA action, and we’ll have 2 more games today. The Heat will head to New York to take on the Knicks in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference semifinal series this afternoon. After that, the Kings will play host to the Warriors in the only Game 7 of the first round.
These matchups couldn’t be more different in terms of styles, which should make for an interesting slate. The Knicks and Heat are both slow-paced, grind-it-out teams that rely on steady defense. The Kings and Warriors are the exact opposite in just about every regard. Needless to say, the second game looks a little better on paper from a DFS standpoint.
Game 1: Miami Heat at New York Knicks
- Time: 1:00 pm ET
Previous Matchups
- MIA 104 at NY 106 (2/2/23)
- NY 122 at MIA 120 (3/3/23)
- NY 120 at MIA 127 (3/22/23)
- MIA 92 at NY 101 (3/29/23)
Notable Injuries
Julius Randle (Questionable)
Quentin Grimes (Probable)
Bam Adebayo (Probable)
Tyler Herro (Out)
Victor Oladipo (Out)
Jericho Sims (Out)
Miami Heat Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Vincent | $4,900 | $5,000 | 25.9 | 2.6 | 17.9 | 5.2 | 17% | 4% | 0.69 | 0.12 | 0.67 | 0.07 | 28 | 21.3 | 4.36 | 20.2 | 4.03 | |
| Max Strus | $4,700 | $4,200 | 28.4 | 1.2 | 20.9 | -6.7 | 17% | -9% | 0.74 | -0.26 | 0.70 | -0.22 | 31 | 19.4 | 4.14 | 18.3 | 4.36 | |
| Jimmy Butler | $9,700 | $10,800 | 33.4 | 3.8 | 42.2 | 14.8 | 25% | 9% | 1.26 | 0.27 | 1.29 | 0.23 | 38 | 50.5 | 5.21 | 50.6 | 4.69 | |
| Kevin Love | $5,100 | $5,300 | 20.0 | 1.7 | 20.4 | 5.4 | 19% | -4% | 1.02 | 0.17 | 0.97 | 0.21 | 22 | 19.4 | 3.81 | 18.6 | 3.50 | |
| Bam Adebayo | $7,400 | $8,000 | 34.6 | -3.1 | 40.1 | -0.5 | 25% | 3% | 1.16 | 0.10 | 1.16 | 0.07 | 33 | 38.8 | 5.25 | 38.5 | 4.82 | |
| Caleb Martin | $4,600 | $5,600 | 29.3 | -2.7 | 20.9 | 2.6 | 14% | -1% | 0.71 | 0.17 | 0.72 | 0.14 | 26 | 16.6 | 3.62 | 16.7 | 2.98 | |
| Kyle Lowry | $4,400 | $4,700 | 31.2 | -9.9 | 26.9 | -9.8 | 16% | 2% | 0.86 | -0.06 | 0.84 | -0.06 | 22 | 17.9 | 4.06 | 16.9 | 3.59 | |
| Cody Zeller | $3,300 | $3,600 | 14.4 | -5.1 | 13.5 | -5.7 | 18% | -7% | 0.94 | -0.10 | 0.94 | -0.10 | 10 | 7.7 | 2.32 | 7.6 | 2.12 | |
| Duncan Robinson | $4,200 | $4,000 | 16.4 | 3.8 | 11.1 | 5.6 | 17% | -3% | 0.67 | 0.15 | 0.63 | 0.11 | 20 | 11.9 | 2.84 | 11.1 | 2.78 | |
| Haywood Highsmith | $3,200 | $3,700 | 18.0 | -9.6 | 12.0 | -3.5 | 12% | -2% | 0.67 | 0.34 | 0.68 | 0.51 | 10 | 5.5 | 1.71 | 5.3 | 1.44 |
Heat Game Analysis
The Heat pulled off one of the most shocking upsets in NBA playoff history with their first-round ouster of the heavily-favored Bucks. Not only did Miami beat Milwaukee, but they disposed of the Eastern Conference favorites in just 5 games. They also managed to accomplish the feat despite losing both Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo to long-term injuries. Erik Spoelstra’s squad is listed as a 5.5-point underdog in today’s Game 1 with a paltry 101.5 implied team total.
Jimmy Butler is an All-Star during the regular season, but he takes his game to another level entirely in the playoffs. Milwaukee had absolutely no answer for him, so we’ll see what his ex-coach, Tom Thibodeau, can do to try and slow him down. Butler’s usage has been through the roof in the postseason (34.5%), and he’s averaging a LeBronian 1.44 FP/min. He’s the most expensive player on the slate on both DraftKings ($9,700) an