NBA DFS Playoff Primer: Sunday, May 14
The NBA postseason is finally upon us. We no longer have to worry about players resting, late scratches, and teams trying to lose. For the next couple of months, we get meaningful basketball game after meaningful basketball game. We have decided to combine the Core Plays and the Grind Down into one all-encompassing article for the NBA playoffs. We will break down each slate, sift through the game flow trackers of prior meetings between teams, cover the notable matchups, and provide our favorite NBA DFS targets.
Happy Sunday! Just one game on the board for Mother’s Day, but it’s a doozy. After blowing a golden opportunity to clinch the series on their home floor in Game 6, the Sixers will head back to Boston for a decisive Game 7 this afternoon. This has been a tough grind of a matchup all the way through, so it’s appropriate that this is the only second-round series to go the distance. The Celtics are 6.5-point favorites with a 103.5 total in this one.
Game 7: Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics
- Time: 3:30 PM ET
- Series: 76ers 3 – Celtics 3
Previous Matchups
- Game 1: PHI 119 at BOS 115
- Game 2: PHI 87 at BOS 121
- Game 3: BOS 114 at PHI 105
- Game 4: BOS 115 at PHI 116
- Game 5: PHI 115 at BOS 103
- Game 6: BOS 95 at PHI 86
Notable Injuries
None
Philadelphia 76ers Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden | $10,200 | $15,000 | 36.8 | 3.5 | 49.0 | 1.3 | 25% | 2% | 1.33 | -0.08 | 1.26 | -0.04 | 42 | 46.7 | 4.57 | 44.1 | 2.94 | |
| Tyrese Maxey | $8,600 | $12,000 | 33.6 | 5.2 | 31.7 | 3.9 | 24% | 0% | 0.94 | -0.03 | 0.91 | 0.02 | 40 | 29.8 | 3.47 | 29.0 | 2.42 | |
| Tobias Harris | $7,200 | $10,000 | 32.9 | 3.3 | 28.8 | -3.4 | 18% | -4% | 0.87 | -0.17 | 0.87 | -0.16 | 40 | 28.2 | 3.91 | 27.9 | 2.79 | |
| P.J. Tucker | $3,800 | $6,500 | 25.6 | 2.4 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 7% | 1% | 0.43 | 0.07 | 0.43 | 0.08 | 23 | 11.2 | 2.94 | 11.2 | 1.73 | |
| Joel Embiid | $11,400 | $17,000 | 34.6 | 3.5 | 57.3 | -7.6 | 37% | -4% | 1.66 | -0.35 | 1.64 | -0.31 | 40 | 56.3 | 4.94 | 55.9 | 3.29 | |
| De’Anthony Melton | $4,800 | $7,000 | 27.9 | -3.9 | 23.7 | -6.0 | 16% | -3% | 0.85 | -0.11 | 0.86 | -0.09 | 24 | 16.0 | 3.33 | 16.5 | 2.35 | |
| Georges Niang | $2,200 | $6,000 | 19.4 | -4.1 | 14.6 | -7.8 | 16% | -3% | 0.75 | -0.31 | 0.71 | -0.32 | 15 | 7.6 | 3.43 | 7.2 | 1.19 | |
| Paul Reed | $2,600 | $6,500 | 10.9 | 2.6 | 12.1 | -0.7 | 15% | -6% | 1.11 | -0.26 | 1.20 | -0.32 | 8 | 8.3 | 3.18 | 8.7 | 1.34 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and this series.
Boston Celtics Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Smart | $7,800 | $11,500 | 32.1 | 3.7 | 28.6 | 2.4 | 18% | 4% | 0.89 | -0.02 | 0.88 | -0.06 | 38 | 30.3 | 3.89 | 29.3 | 2.55 | |
| Jaylen Brown | $9,200 | $13,500 | 35.9 | 1.3 | 43.5 | -7.0 | 31% | -6% | 1.21 | -0.23 | 1.17 | -0.23 | 39 | 38.8 | 4.21 | 37.1 | 2.74 | |
| Jayson Tatum | $11,000 | $17,500 | 36.9 | 2.3 | 52.4 | 0.5 | 32% | -2% | 1.42 | -0.07 | 1.37 | -0.04 | 42 | 52.3 | 4.75 | 50.1 | 2.86 | |
| Al Horford | $7,000 | $9,000 | 30.5 | 0.7 | 26.1 | 1.6 | 12% | 1% | 0.85 | 0.03 | 0.85 | 0.11 | 34 | 24.2 | 3.46 | 24.0 | 2.66 | |
| Robert Williams | $6,000 | $8,500 | 23.5 | -3.8 | 24.2 | -7.9 | 11% | -3% | 1.03 | -0.20 | 1.08 | -0.17 | 27 | 23.0 | 3.84 | 24.4 | 2.87 | |
| Derrick White | $5,000 | $7,500 | 28.3 | 0.5 | 26.4 | -9.1 | 17% | -4% | 0.93 | -0.33 | 0.93 | -0.35 | 26 | 19.3 | 3.86 | 19.2 | 2.56 | |
| Malcolm Brogdon | $6,600 | $9,500 | 26.0 | 3.3 | 28.0 | 1.5 | 22% | 1% | 1.08 | -0.07 | 1.05 | -0.11 | 30 | 27.6 | 4.18 | 26.6 | 2.80 | |
| Grant Williams | $2,400 | $6,000 | 25.9 | -10.5 | 18.5 | -9.8 | 13% | -4% | 0.71 | -0.15 | 0.70 | -0.11 | 5 | 2.8 | 1.17 | 2.8 | 0.46 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and this series.
Game Analysis
Four of the Sixers’ five starters cracked 40 minutes in Game 6, which is certainly a trend likely to continue today. James Harden has had a couple of monster games in this series, but he’s otherwise struggled in the shooting department. That said, his 1.21 FP/min average in the playoffs is a lot closer to his regular-season mark than Joel Embiid’s (1.29) is to his. The latter still leads the team in usage in the postseason (31.7%), but that’s down about 7% from his regular-season average. Embiid is still the safest play in your captain/MVP slot, but he’ll also surely be the most popular play in those multiplier spots. Taking the discount on Harden there makes the rest of the build a bit more palatable from a salary allocation standpoint.
Both are capable of stuffing the stat sheet, so I have no qualms with opting for Harden. That’s especially the case on DK, where you get bonuses for double-doubles, triple-doubles, and three-pointers. Embiid is still the top projected play on the slate, as he’s capable of going for 60 fantasy points even if he’s not fully on his game. Boston has done a fine job on the MVP defensively, however, as he hasn’t even connected on 50% of his field goal attempts in any of his 5 games played thus far. Tyrese Maxey (0.93 FP/min) has stepped it up as a scorer over the past couple of games, and he’s topped 40 minutes in 3 straight. Maxey is a little more scoring-dependent than the other star types in this one, so I’m more inclined to look his way in a UTIL spot. His floor isn’t all that stable despite his hefty salaries.
Tobias Harris will have a big game on occasion, but he was a no-show in Game 6. Such is life for a guy that’s essentially the No. 4 offensive option for Philly when they’re at full strength. Harris has been decent per minute (0.86), but his 17.7% usage in the playoffs leaves plenty to be desired. If you’re MMEing a large-field tournament, keeping Tobias in the captain/MVP pool makes sense. He should still surpass 40 minutes, and he’s cheap enough to where the build around him looks pretty good if you make him your top multiplier play. The minutes for PJ Tucker have been all over the map in this series, as he’s often losing time to De’Anthony Melton off the bench. I’d much rather roll the dice with Melton as a value play given his significantly better per-minute numbers. Georges Niang ($2,200) and Paul Reed ($2,600) are punts to consider on DraftKings, where the punt types generally have more value. They may combine to play 20 minutes today, but you don’t need them to go off in order for them to exceed salary-based expectations.