NBA DFS Playoff Primer: Tuesday, May 23
The NBA postseason is finally upon us. We no longer have to worry about players resting, late scratches, and teams trying to lose. For the next couple of months, we get meaningful basketball game after meaningful basketball game. We have decided to combine the Core Plays and the Grind Down into one all-encompassing article for the NBA playoffs. We will break down each slate, sift through the game flow trackers of prior meetings between teams, cover the notable matchups, and provide our favorite NBA DFS targets.
You know, sometimes you don’t get the things you ask for in life. All I wanted was a little more basketball before the NBA Finals, but Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets had other plans. They rallied in the second half against the Lakers to complete the sweep. They now have seven full days of rest before their quest to a championship starts. The Heat are hoping to accomplish the same feat tonight, as they host the Celtics with a chance to pull off the sweep at home.
Game 4: Boston Celtics at Miami Heat
- Time: 8:30 PM ET
- Series: Celtics 0 – Heat 3
Series Matchups
- Game 1: MIA 123 – BOS 116
- Game 2: MIA 111 – BOS 105
- Game 3: BOS 102 – MIA 128
Notable Injuries
Tyler Herro – Out
Boston Celtics Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Smart | $7,800 | $12,000 | 32.1 | 3.2 | 28.6 | -4.0 | 18% | -5% | 0.89 | -0.19 | 0.88 | -0.21 | 30.1 | 3.86 | 29.0 | |||
| Derrick White | $4,400 | $7,000 | 28.3 | -9.6 | 26.4 | -12.2 | 17% | -4% | 0.93 | -0.17 | 0.93 | -0.17 | 21.1 | 4.79 | 20.9 | |||
| Jaylen Brown | $10,000 | $13,500 | 35.9 | 3.1 | 43.5 | -7.9 | 31% | -2% | 1.21 | -0.30 | 1.17 | -0.29 | 40.1 | 4.01 | 38.2 | |||
| Jayson Tatum | $12,600 | $17,000 | 36.9 | 4.8 | 52.4 | 9.8 | 32% | 0% | 1.42 | 0.07 | 1.37 | 0.05 | 53.4 | 4.24 | 50.4 | |||
| Al Horford | $7,000 | $11,000 | 30.5 | 1.1 | 26.1 | -2.1 | 12% | -3% | 0.85 | -0.10 | 0.85 | -0.01 | 22.2 | 3.18 | 21.9 | |||
| Malcolm Brogdon | $6,800 | $8,500 | 26.0 | 4.5 | 28.0 | -5.0 | 22% | -1% | 1.08 | -0.32 | 1.05 | -0.30 | 26.7 | 3.92 | 25.8 | |||
| Robert Williams | $5,200 | $7,500 | 23.5 | 2.8 | 24.2 | -3.2 | 11% | 2% | 1.03 | -0.23 | 1.08 | -0.24 | 16.7 | 3.22 | 17.4 | |||
| Grant Williams | $2,400 | $6,500 | 25.9 | -11.4 | 18.5 | -8.6 | 13% | -4% | 0.71 | -0.03 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 12.8 | 5.33 | 12.6 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and the playoffs.
Miami Heat Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Vincent | $5,000 | $8,000 | 25.9 | 9.9 | 17.9 | 2.6 | 17% | -4% | 0.69 | -0.12 | 0.67 | -0.09 | 25.4 | 5.07 | 24.1 | |||
| Max Strus | $5,400 | $7,000 | 28.4 | 3.3 | 20.9 | -1.0 | 17% | -2% | 0.74 | -0.11 | 0.70 | -0.10 | 19.5 | 3.62 | 18.4 | |||
| Jimmy Butler | $12,400 | $17,500 | 33.4 | 8.3 | 42.2 | 10.6 | 25% | 6% | 1.26 | 0.00 | 1.29 | 0.04 | 52.1 | 4.20 | 52.6 | |||
| Kevin Love | $3,000 | $6,500 | 20.0 | -4.5 | 20.4 | -8.1 | 19% | -7% | 1.02 | -0.23 | 0.97 | -0.21 | 14.6 | 4.88 | 14.0 | |||
| Bam Adebayo | $9,400 | $15,500 | 34.6 | 3.4 | 40.1 | 5.4 | 25% | 0% | 1.16 | 0.04 | 1.16 | 0.03 | 43.1 | 4.58 | 42.5 | |||
| Kyle Lowry | $5,600 | $9,000 | 31.2 | -5.8 | 26.9 | -0.9 | 16% | -1% | 0.86 | 0.16 | 0.84 | 0.24 | 20.5 | 3.66 | 19.6 | |||
| Caleb Martin | $6,400 | $10,000 | 29.3 | -0.5 | 20.9 | 7.2 | 14% | 4% | 0.71 | 0.26 | 0.72 | 0.27 | 20.3 | 3.18 | 20.4 | |||
| Duncan Robinson | $3,800 | $7,000 | 16.4 | -2.6 | 11.1 | -1.0 | 17% | 1% | 0.67 | 0.06 | 0.63 | 0.09 | 10.0 | 2.62 | 9.2 | |||
| Cody Zeller | $1,400 | $6,000 | 14.4 | -5.0 | 13.5 | -7.6 | 18% | -6% | 0.94 | -0.31 | 0.94 | -0.34 | 9.2 | 6.59 | 9.1 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and the playoffs.
Game 4 Analysis
I genuinely don’t know what to expect from the Celtics in this elimination game on the road. I thought they would win Game 1 and they lost. I thought there’s no way they would lose the first two games at home and they lost again in Game 2. I thought all they need is a little momentum and they should be able to take Game 3. I was wrong again. My gut reaction to Game 4 is that they will get out-worked for the fourth straight game and waive the white towel early, but they always seem to do the opposite of what I think is going to happen. This series feels over, but if Boston can win tonight and then win at home in Game 5, things become very interesting.