NBA DFS Picks Today (12/27): DraftKings & FanDuel Top Plays, Sleepers
We’re looking at 6 games on the NBA DFS slate for Wednesday night. Joel Embiid will miss a second straight game for the Sixers with his sprained ankle, while big names like Luka Doncic, Donovan Mitchell, and Giannis Antetokounmpo are carrying questionable tags into the day.
Below, you’ll find a few NBA DFS picks that stand out on DraftKings and FanDuel as of the early afternoon hours. If you’re looking for more in-depth analysis, sign up for RG Premium.
Top NBA DFS DraftKings Lineup Optimizer Value
PG/SG De’Anthony Melton ($5,800)
As mentioned, Embiid will be out of the mix again tonight when the Sixers visit the Magic in Orlando. Needless to say, this changes just about everything for Philly. Tyrese Maxey (33.5%) leads the team in usage with Embiid off the floor this season, but it’s De’Anthony Melton (+6.8%) that gets the biggest usage boost of any Sixer. He’s up to 1.16 DK FP/minute across a 184-minute sample with the big man on the sidelines on the year.
Melton logged 36 minutes in this spot on Christmas Day, and we have him tentatively projected for 32 as of this writing. Orlando isn’t the greatest matchup – they’re 3rd in defensive rating – but at least the Magic are on the second half of a back-to-back. Regardless, $5,800 on DraftKings is just too cheap for Melton in this role. He’s been north of $6,000 for much of the season even with Embiid in the lineup.
Whether more value opens up in the day will determine whether Melton comes in as one of the chalkiest cheapies on the slate. Either way, I don’t see much reason not to go back to the well.
Top NBA DFS FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Value
C Paul Reed ($5,300)
We had fun rostering Paul Reed on Christmas, didn’t we folks? B-Ball Paul started in place of Embiid…only to go on to play just 17 minutes and get supremely outperformed by Mo Bamba off the bench. Bamba, meanwhile, went off for 18 points and 6 rebounds in 26 minutes off the bench. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
As of now, we have Reed slated to draw a second straight start tonight. That he failed the other day shouldn’t have any bearing on how we feel about playing him tonight, especially given his solid per-minute production (0.99) across 370 minutes this year with Embiid on the bench. Bamba has been better (1.39), though in a smaller 111-minute sample.
Whoever starts will project as the better play. We have a 25/18 minutes split in favor of Reed with him projected to start again, which is enough to make him project pretty well. If Bamba starts, Reed becomes an interesting GPP pivot at his more elevated salaries around the industry.
NBA DFS Sleepers
PF Kyle Kuzma ($8,200 DK, $7,800 FD)
Not much has gone right for the Wizards this season, but their struggles have been overshadowed of late by the exploits of the even more calamitous Pistons.
It hasn’t all been bad for Washington, of course. Kyle Kuzma is in the midst of a career year. He’s leading the team in usage (31.3%) and averaging career-bests in points (22.8) and assists (4.3) despite a downtick in rebounds. All of that adds up to 1.24 DK FP/minute, which is excellent production for a guy priced in the $8,000 range on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Tonight’s Wizards-Raptors clash is one of the more unappealing real-life games on the slate, but this is a matchup between a pair of porous defenses. Toronto has an ugly 123.8 defensive rating so far this month. The only teams faring worse on that end of the floor thus far in December are the Wizards, Hawks, Knicks, and, of course, the Pistons.
It’s a solid spot for Kuz, and he’s projected for single-digit ownership around the industry as of this writing. I like banking on the bounce-back here amid some shaky shooting efforts over the past couple of games.
PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,500 DK, $11,500 FD)
Remember those teams with the awful defensive ratings so far this month? The Knicks’ 124.9 mark is tied for the worst mark of them all. New York’s defensive struggles since Mitchell Robinson went down have been well-documented. To the shock of many, last week’s Taj Gibson signing hasn’t proven to be a cure-all.
The Knicks’ non-existent rim protection should be music to the ears of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. SGA is third in the NBA in scoring (30.8) this season, and his 1.6 FP/minute average is among the highest in the league. Gilgeous-Alexander’s scoring numbers are extra impressive when you consider he’s not shooting well at all from 3-point range (29.7%), which means he’s doing the vast majority of his damage from inside the arc.
SGA’s length helps him get to his spots offensively, and I’d expect little resistance tonight from those struggling Knicks. He’s getting more expensive, but I still think $10,500 on DK is light for the numbers he’s putting up on a nightly basis.
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